2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

The South American weather service updated yesterday, they kept the El Niño Costero (coastal), region 1+2 warning in effect, their disco says it’s very likely that a strong El Niño Costeto goes right into April, 2027

The well coupled El Niño standing wave is sticking out like a sore thumb




And the TC parade has begun in the central, western and eastern PAC, with the most activity projected in the EPAC
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

IMO, I think of the PDO like snow cover. If a large area has deep snow cover (or lack thereof), it can enhance (or weaken) a polar high, which can impact an individual storm track. But it can only do so much. If you have a cutter going into ORD, snow cover in new england or the mid atlantic won’t stop it from cutting. And over time, as we know, those repeated cutters will weaken the snow cover. 

So think of the super Nino as the pattern driving the cutters, and the -PDO as the snow cover. The super Nino will continuously override it over time with a zonal jet until it flips to +PDO. I know this is not a perfect analogy because El Niños mean less cutters literally. But you get the idea. 

Good analogy....Snowfall won't prevent a cutter, but it can delay/retard the warming perhaps even trigger the development of a triple point low, while the upper levels still flood with warmth. Difference here is the lower levels are most responsive to ENSO, and it's actually the upper levels that lag.

[EasternLI]

Another thing I'm curious to see. Do we start seeing recurving typhoons in the pacific more often again? I don't have stats, but I feel like there's been a dearth of those for the past several years at least. I think some of that could be blamed on a lack of any real phase 8 forcing over that time. There's research out there that describes how it manifests itself in the pacific. Which is that the recurving typhoons are an artifact of phase 8 which in turn act to invigorate the Aleutian low. They're one of the driving forces of that feature apparently. There has certainly been a dearth of those over the same time too.

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good analogy....Snowfall won't prevent a cutter, but it can delay/retard the warming perhaps even trigger the development of a triple point low, while the upper levels still flood with warmth. Difference here is the lower levels are most responsive to ENSO, and it's actually the upper levels that lag.

Yeah which makes sense. It lags both from warmth going bottom-up in the tropics via instability/upper level divergence and from planetary scale baroclinicity aloft, which seasonally strengthens in late NH summer and early fall as the Arctic cold pool begins to develop.

[snowman19]

 

 

 

[MJO812]

https://nypost.com/2026/07/17/science/could-el-nino-and-atlantic-nina-join-forces-to-stop-hurricanes/?utm_campaign=nypost&sr_share=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwdGRjcATIledjbGNrBMiV4GV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHrZJplYxVhr-qY48UT6kFhSme1bPRK1zvCIdz63839hZK2q13u4fIvlfVA-5_aem_TWYFCDQhIkpDDrf6FtadpA