2026-2027 Super El Nino

[LakePaste25]

Jet extension is going full steam in the southern hemisphere winter, with copious amounts of snow in the Andes:

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Absolutely classic, strong El Niño VP and OLR standing wave convection in place in the PAC now. Fully coupled and Bjerknes feedback has become well established, making it a self-sustaining system. The MJO waves are constructively interfering as well. In your maps, you can see the subsidence around the MC and Indonesia, which is only going to increase when the +IOD gets established over the next month.
 
It’s off to the races now with another massive WWB coming up and another DWKW barreling itself east to warm the subsurface and surface even more, I think we see anomalies reach +10C to +12C in the subsurface in the coming weeks

This is a textbook east-based (EP) event:






And that OHC….wow

Your Modoki Nino composite has cool anomalies in the east greater than warm anomalies in Nino 4. That's not accurate. Actually, a Modoki Nino typically has no negative anomalies anywhere in ENSO. +0.4c max in the west vs -0.6c max in the east is not an El Nino.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Jet extension is going full steam in the southern hemisphere winter, with copious amounts of snow in the Andes:

It looks like that Southern Hemisphere version of PNA is coming along pretty nice. TT only has 2m, if someone has global 500mb anomaly for GEFS and EPS can you post the link?

384hr 12z GEFS

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Absolutely classic, strong El Niño VP and OLR standing wave convection in place in the PAC now. Fully coupled and Bjerknes feedback has become well established, making it a self-sustaining system. The MJO waves are constructively interfering as well. In your maps, you can see the subsidence around the MC and Indonesia, which is only going to increase when the +IOD gets established over the next month.
 
It’s off to the races now with another massive WWB coming up and another DWKW barreling itself east to warm the subsurface and surface even more, I think we see anomalies reach +10C to +12C in the subsurface in the coming weeks

This is a textbook east-based (EP) event:






And that OHC….wow

Thats not going to ever happen with the EWB off SA.These winds are killing KW from getting that far east and the MJO should go back into the WP,if anything you might see an expansion  from downwelling but 10-12/Not going to happen

[LakePaste25]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It looks like that Southern Hemisphere version of PNA is coming along pretty nice. TT only has 2m, if someone has global 500mb anomaly for GEFS and EPS can you post the link?

384hr 12z GEFS

They exist on Tropical Tidbits, but they’re smoothed 5 day means. World view.

 

[michsnowfreak]

On 7/16/2026 at 10:01 AM, GaWx said:

This map agrees with many of the official SE station temps being NN (and even BN in FL as Jacksonville and other official temps confirm). It also shows that the torch was centered in the Midwest and Plains with no torch near the E coast (ex: NYC was ~+1.3F, not a torch). Much of NE coast was only 1-2 F AN per the city by city official temps.

 

On 7/16/2026 at 9:37 AM, csnavywx said:

Here's the continental composite using the 1861-1900 average to detrend. Note that a simple detrend, while helpful, still assumes that SST changes since then will scale linearly in terms of forcing (almost certainly not going to be the case). Nevertheless, the overall pattern makes it clear that the continent will mostly suffer from high frequency intrusion of downslope events, enhanced by anomalous moisture transport and a surplus moist static energy.

Interesting to see a map of 1877-78. I knew the core of warmth was in the upper midwest, because while it was certainly a mild winter at Detroit, it wasnt nearly as extreme as in Minneapolis.

Ive mentioned it before, but the 1875-1882 period had a very odd "every other year" pattern locally of very cold winter followed by very mild winter. 1875-76, 1877-78, 1879-80 & 1881-82 were all warm winters overall. I have no idea how ENSO played into it outside of 1877-78.

1877-78 at Detroit (using present-day departures):

Nov: 39.2F (-2.0F)....Snow 1.0" (-0.9")
Dec: 38.1F (+6.8F)....Snow 1.9" (-7.0")
Jan: 27.3F (+1.5F)….Snow 23.1” (+9.1”)
Feb: 29.2F (+1.2F)….Snow 17.4” (+4.9”)
Mar: 41.3F (+4.1F)…Snow M (est 1-2"))
Apr: 53.4F (+4.5F)…Snow 0 (-1.5”)

Huge storm Jan 31st (14.8"). 

The winter followed a somewhat similar path as other strong Ninos in that there were some very good winter blasts but the warmth won out. And realistically, thats the best formula to run a strong Nino in the north. You want that roller coaster up and down, helps with some good storms and assures you get some arctic blasts with the warm spells. Way better than mundane, stagnant 40s every day.

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Jet extension is going full steam in the southern hemisphere winter, with copious amounts of snow in the Andes:

 

Man I wish they had a live webcam - They make Mammoth Ski Resort look like the DMV in a La Nada winter.

I am SOOOOOOOO damn Jealous of all their snow.

I'd love to kick back on a Texas lawn chair on their ski parking lot and watch that snow pile up all around me lol.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I am SOOOOOOOO damn Jealous of all their snow.

I'd love to kick back on a Texas lawn chair on their ski parking lot and watch that snow pile up all around me lol.

I've always wanted to do that. In Mt. Shasta, CA the mountain clears completely in the Summer, then in September/October huge amounts of snow start piling up on the top. How cool would it be to camp on top of that mountain when the first 4-8' falls? It's easy to climb to. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Another Aleutian ridge! Since the El Nino began, N. Pacific ridge vs troughs lasting 5 days more more: 6-0. July will likely be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

@Gawx

[EasternLI]

I wanted to make a post about this last fall, never got around to it. Watching a super nino develop now, and drinking some surfside iced tea's, I feel compelled once again to bring up something that's kind of interesting. Perhaps a clue that a super nino would have been on the horizon the following year? I thought the severely negative IOD last year was quite interesting. I had found a paper at that time discussing purely very strong negative IOD events. 

 

Diversity of strong negative Indian Ocean dipole events since 1980: characteristics and causes

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-07008-x

 

Notice the years where the strongest of negative IOD events occurred...

 

Quote

In this study, the diverse features of four strongest negative Indian Ocean dipole (nIOD) (1996, 1998, 2010 and 2016) since 1980 are quantitatively examined.

 

It's really interesting to me how 3 out of 4 of those years came on the heels of very respectable el nino years. But one however did not, and that one occurred the year prior to a super el nino. That one occurred prior to 97-98. 

 

They noted that three of those events are attributed to monopole events (mainly the warmth in the east). Not surprising, these three are the ones following the respectable el nino years.

 

Quote

 The growth of SSTA in Dipole Mode Index (DMI) indicates one event (1996) being a dipolar pattern and the other three (1998, 2010 and 2016) being monopolar patterns during their mature phases.

 

The one year that was an actual dipole and featured the cooling in the west in conjunction with the warming in the east. Had the super el nino the following year (97-98). Unlike the others. 

 

Quote

During 1996 case, SSTA in west (IOD-W) and east (IOD-E) poles are both significant and comparable though with different physical origins. Effective Bjerknes-feedback dominated in accumulating warm-water in IOD-E and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity constructively enhances this IOD-E warming, while the heat loss induced by the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) and cloud-radiation-SST feedback lead to a fast and profound cooling in IOD-W. Developing on a non-La Niña background, the IOD-E warming is initiated with positive heat flux anomalies that lead the linear temperature advection by 1-month(s), indicating this dipole pattern as a local independent event that possibly triggered by interior-basin disturbances in the Indian Ocean (IO).

 

The authors attribute that lone occurrence to local processes (in the IO) mainly. The other monopole cases are attributed to WWB in the IO which have links to enso. So when we look at last years case, what is the prognosis of that one? Clearly, there was no respectable el nino the year prior. Clearly, it was of the dipole variety in the sst anomaly data (image below). So it's interesting as hell to me watching this super el nino developing now. Potentially record breaking at that, following after a type of negative IOD which only really matches the year prior to 97-98. (I think the PDO is a major difference from that year specifically. May try to dig into that more later) Cheers.