2026-2027 Super El Nino

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps says it's coming to a N. Hemisphere near you.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071400&fh=210

5 day average 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026071400&fh=264

[snowman19]

 

I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt a +3.5C traditional ONI peak and a RONI peak of +3.0C anymore



If the models are correct, this is the very start of an explosion of TC’s in the EPAC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

We're at the point where this event catches up to '97 and passes it handily.

[snowman19]

We're at the point where this event catches up to '97 and passes it handily.

We are about to leave 1997 in the dust.

The 30C isotherm continues to trek further east of the dateline, pushed by the ongoing WWBs. Absolutely believable that it gets all the way to 140W by November

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are about to leave 1997 in the dust.

The 30C isotherm continues to trek further east of the dateline, pushed by the ongoing WWBs. Absolutely believable that it gets all the way to 140W by November

 

 

 

 

Agreed.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

5 day average 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026071400&fh=264

That relaxation of the ridge and heat has been the pattern since May following these periods of record heat and ridging.

If the ridge returns again in early August, then we’ll know the pattern is continuing.

But if the trough can hold on, then it would look more like a traditional developing super El Niño mid-latitude summer pattern in the East.

It would be nice to get an extended break from these periods of record warmth and ridging. 

The shear across the Caribbean with this record breaking super El Niño is more like what they see in December.