2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Since 1980, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are an extremely strong tendency for warmth. I believe there have been 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers in the last 46 years and every one of them were warm if I’m not mistaken

I also have 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers since 1980:

1982, 1987, 1994, 2006, 2015, 2018

I’m counting the barely positive QBOs of 1997 and 2004 as neutral QBO. Otherwise there’d be 8.

 The only one of the 6 that wasn’t warm in the E US was 2018, which was NN to slightly AN in the E US. So, it appears to be a pretty good correlation although the sample size is pretty small.

Aside: Today’s SOI was the most negative so far this year at -34.80.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Models continue building a Strong Aleutian ridge in the long range

[LakePaste25]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I use it now along with the climate reanalyzer for composites

We can see why many have been noticing that despite the record developing El Niño, the sensible weather is more Niña-like. Record 100° heat a few weeks ago and the 90s reloading in a few days is probably reflecting the westward lean of the Nino forcing.

The cooler days in between are probably more of a Nino-like influence with the recent snows in the New England higher elevations.

 

I think this is manifesting as a weakened mid latitude cell via destructive interference. The westward leaning convection results in downstream mid latitude trough, which then results in subsidence downstream of the trough. Where the subsidence is occurring, it competes with where we expect a mid latitude trough from Nino influenced convection over the equator. So the end result is generally a weakened aleutian low as it must compete from subsidence caused by upstream troughing. 

The long range GEFS starts to bring these troughs closer together, more of what we’d expect in a Nino with a broad mid latitude cell extending east of the dateline.  

 

[snowman19]

Very good job by the modeling of predicting this big WWB well in advance just like they did back in April:

 

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The current pattern is showing the competing influences. The typical June +PNA El Nino ridge is getting displaced further east than is usual near the Great Lakes. This is the position that we usually see this time of year with a La Niña or -PDO pattern.

Probably related to the El Niño forcing shifted west closer to the WPAC +30 C warm pool and the -PDO. This would be a very warm pattern in the winter like we saw in 23-24 with the Nino ridge pressing further east than usual.

If the trough can return mid month closer to the Great Lakes, then probably it would reflect the Nino forcing shifting east of the Dateline at that time. So a periodic back and forth between WPAC to Central and EPAC forcing.

 

 

Any thoughts to why we still seem to be crashing hard in Phase 7 to COD/weak 8 for MJO? We saw this in 23/24 as well.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There were allot of coastal storms and resulting erosion that winter. I was working on a research project tracking erosion at the time. Snow wise in the north east it was a lack of cold air that produced the negative result not the storm track.


.

Yes. Precipitation wasn't the problem. The region was flooded with too much warmth. It will be interesting to see how things unfold with the upcoming super El Niño.

[LakePaste25]

16 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Any thoughts to why we still seem to be crashing hard in Phase 7 to COD/weak 8 for MJO? We saw this in 23/24 as well.

The EPS in particular seems to have a westward lean on the OLR map, which would push the RMM mean into the COD. I see less of a signal of this on the GEFS.  

[LakePaste25]

 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

Here we go folks. June 2nd was the 2nd day in a row of a steep warming in 3.4 (another 0.09) (RONI up to ~+0.7C). That makes it a two day warming total of 0.18C! It hasn’t warmed at this rate since way back in mid-April. A notable but delayed warming after the start of a long and strong -SOI period is common and was in addition to model hints why I said on Monday before this two day rise to expect after the prior 15 day pause next week’s weekly 3.4 update to be a few ticks warmer:

 

[chris21]

On 6/2/2026 at 8:29 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.

97-98 was a massive winter for my area in the southern Appalachians (100 inches plus) which shows the potential such an ENSO outcome could produce.

[GaWx]

 The model progs are suggesting a shot at a 1017 mb Darwin SLP on June 7th. If that occurs, it would easily become the new highest Darwin SLP that early in the year based on records back to 1992. The current record highest that early in the year is 4/22/2023’s 1016.2 mb. If it reaches 1017, it would become the earliest 1017 on record by ~15 days!

[snowman19]