2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Unpopular opinion here. 1997-98 wasnt AS bad as it gets a rep for in the Great Lakes. It sucked, but an nunprecedented shutout (just a T) in February sealed its fate in infamy. Nov-Jan was ok, multiple rounds of snow (then a few more in March). The 2nd half of January was solid white ground and gray skies and the temp barely moved. Good enough for snow but I imagine terrible for ice fishing. 

Still high on the list of winters I dont care to ever see again, but significantly better than 1982-83.

I agree that it could have turned out better than it did with a little luck, but I would take 1982 12x over 1997. Dec 1997 had a great storm here just before Xmas, which was the one good event that entire wretched season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.

[LakePaste25]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.

I remember HM mentioning awhile ago that the 97-98 season came extremely close to a KU for the NE/Mid atlantic. I keep stressing that a 97-98 redux does not automatically mean “guaranteed low snow season” even for DC/PHL/NY.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I remember HM mentioning awhile ago that the 97-98 season came extremely close to a KU for the NE/Mid atlantic. I keep stressing that a 97-98 redux does not automatically mean “guaranteed low snow season” even for DC/PHL/NY.

As an anecdotal note, I think the run of "bad luck" for the east coast has come to an end and feel like we are starting to more efficiently cash in for a while. Just a hunch.

[GaWx]

19 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98

Cansips is still going full Modoki unlike Euro and CFS. But I think it may have a Modoki bias based on at least one previous year.

Latest Cansips DJF has warmest SST anomalies over W region 3.4/region 4: (**corrected** as I had region 3 typo)

 

*Edited for typo

[GaWx]

 Latest CFS DJF fits super Nino climo well unlike what Cansips is still showing, which may be related to it having Modoki:

CFS DJF: looks like what one would expect with super-Nino:

 

Cansips DJF: still looks off but may be due to it having Modoki

[bluewave]

The long range forecasts from the CanSIPS have a strong cold bias. Notice how the model had a cold spring especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast from the older forecasts. Didn’t really begin to catch on until the March 1st update. But even then it was too cold. 
 

Verification 2nd warmest spring on record for the CONUS

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

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Spring (Mar-May) temperature departure from the 1991-2020 normal. Seems warm.

 

 

‪Climatologist49‬

 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

· 20h

Spring 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S. (2012). A majority of locations had a top 5 warmest spring compared to all springs since 1895 and many places had their warmest. Only a small area of the northern Plains had a cool spring compared to the full period-of-record.

 

2:07 PM · Jun 1, 2026

Everybody

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The long range forecasts from the CanSIPS have a strong cold bias. Notice how the model had a cold spring especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast from the older forecasts. Didn’t really begin to catch on until the March 1st update. But even then it was too cold. 
 

Verification 2nd warmest spring on record for the CONUS

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

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Spring (Mar-May) temperature departure from the 1991-2020 normal. Seems warm.

 

 

‪Climatologist49‬

 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

· 20h

Spring 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S. (2012). A majority of locations had a top 5 warmest spring compared to all springs since 1895 and many places had their warmest. Only a small area of the northern Plains had a cool spring compared to the full period-of-record.

 

2:07 PM · Jun 1, 2026

Everybody

Thanks, Chris.

 Indeed, Cansips was much too cold in the E US this spring. And it has been too cold at other times. But I’m curious. Does it actually have a well analyzed documented cold bias based on an amply sized sample based on a good number of years? I wouldn’t be surprised but it’s important to know, of course.