2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

My calculation has -1.18 for the PDO, so in line with WCS. It's definitely been dropping the last few weeks. But the AMO is looking solidly negative now, so that is new compared to recent history. 

You have the PDO only down to -1.18 now? Do you mean current daily? How did you calculate that? I ask because that seems not nearly negative enough if you’re talking current daily.

[snowman19]

Translation: “The atmospheric indicators required for the equatorial Pacific warming to be fed back from the atmosphere (ocean-atmosphere coupling) are already visible: a strong negative value of the Southern Oscillation Index, a decrease in OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific (in fact, it is already reaching the values of analogous observed events), and a weakening of the trade winds (850mb) between the coast of South America and the international date line.

All these parameters are consistent with the presence and consolidation of #ElNiño. The MJO is playing a role in this, over the last few days.”

^This along with the AAM popping positive are all consistent with a strongly coupling (Bjerknes feedback) El Niño event

“A massive westerly wind burst is currently commencing across the West/Central Pacific. As it moves East, this is likely going to kick El Niño into overdrive. All ENSO regions are already solidly above average, and this even will likely help push the warm pool (with record SSTs in many spots) further east into the East/Central Pacific.”

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

My calculation has -1.18 for the PDO, so in line with WCS. It's definitely been dropping the last few weeks. But the AMO is looking solidly negative now, so that is new compared to recent history. 

@Stormchaserchuck1 If we have (finally) turned the corner in the Atlantic to a solid -AMO cycle, what implications does that have on the NAO? 

[BlizzardWx]

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

You have the PDO only down to -1.18 now? Do you mean current daily? How did you calculate that? I ask because that seems not nearly negative enough if you’re talking current daily.

Yeah, that is what my page shows as of the 27th for the daily value. As for how I did it, that's an important point to dwell on for any PDO calculation. It's dependent on the period of record, the exact domain, how much you correct the climate change signal, etc. All of these effect the EOF calculation that defines the weights that can then be used in the actual calculation. None of this is clearly standardized anywhere, which is why different groups get different values. I think that mine and WCS are better than NOAA who does not appear to have detrended the climate change signal properly. 

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, roardog said:

These guys are talking about atmospheric responses like WWB,MJO,SOI, etc. I don’t think anyone here disagrees with any of this. Posters like Bluewave and Chuck are talking about the pattern over the North Pacific and or North America not being completely Nino like. I’m still not even sure why we should even be expecting a strong Nino response right now since the RONI is at like +.5

Yeah, we can see the overlapping influences between the El Niño, MJO, and -PDO heading into early June.

The ridging showing up south of Alaska into Western Canada is the correlation with the El Nino and +AAM.

The extension of the ridge further east across much of the CONUS is more -PDO and MJO 8-1 related for this time of year.

So effectively a 500 mb composite in early June that reflects these influences. A coupled El Niño will vary in its sensible weather related to the other influences. 

Also the pattern in recent years of the 500 mb ridges becoming stronger and more expansive with weaker troughs during any given ENSO state.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 If we have (finally) turned the corner in the Atlantic to a solid -AMO cycle, what implications does that have on the NAO? 

Not that it is going to flip on a dime, but the last -AMO cycle coincided with the negative portion of the multidecadal NAO cycle in the 60s. I think we are more likely to see a modified version of that (CC) around and after the solar min early next decade. This season should be decidedly positive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we can see the overlapping influences between the El Niño, MJO, and -PDO heading into early June.

The ridging showing up south of Alaska into Western Canada is the correlation with the El Nino and +AAM.

The extension of the ridge further east across much of the CONUS is more -PDO and MJO 8-1 related for this time of year.

So effectively a 500 mb composite in early June that reflects these influences. A coupled El Niño will vary in its sensible weather related to the other influences. 

Also the pattern in recent years of the 500 mb ridges becoming stronger and more expansive with weaker troughs during any given ENSO state.

This is why I feel we want a high RONI during an El Nino event....the RONI represents a spectrum, or continuum if you will, of the ability of warm ENSO to modulate the north Pacific versus the baseline trend that is more reflective of CC, which is cool ENSO like. I think folks obfuscate this with the MEI, which simply measures the intensity of the warm ENSO coupling. RONI is not so much about the intensity of the coupling, but the war waged between ENSO and competing hemispheric forces.

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why I feel we want a high RONI during an El Nino event....the RONI represents a spectrum, or continuum if you will, of the ability of warm ENSO to modulate the north Pacific versus the baseline trend that is more reflective of CC, which is cool ENSO like. I think folks obfuscate this with the MEI, which simply measures the intensity of the warm ENSO coupling. RONI is not so much about the intensity of the coupling, but the war waged between ENSO and competing hemispheric forces.

 Besides the MEI, I feel that the SOI (which may be part of the MEI…Is it?) remains a good measure of the phase and strength of ENSO because it is a calculation based on SLP differences between two points thousands of miles apart and thus doesn’t seem to be influenced by CC. In essence a relative SOI is likely not needed. Of course, because it is so volatile and subject to day to day randomness, it’s best looked at in 30+ day averages.

 Then again, if, say avg. Australian SLPs have been affected by CV differently from how Tahiti SLPs have been affected by CC, then even SOIs would need an adjustment.

Other opinions?

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Besides the MEI, I feel that the SOI (which may be part of the MEI…Is it?) remains a good measure of the phase and strength of ENSO because it is a calculation based on SLP differences between two points thousands of miles apart and thus doesn’t seem to be influenced by CC. In essence a relative SOI is likely not needed. Of course, because it is so volatile and subject to day to day randomness, it’s best looked at in 30+ day averages.

 Then again, if, say avg. Australian SLPs have been affected by CV differently from how Tahiti SLPs have been affected by CC, then even SOIs would need an adjustment.

Other opinions?

Yea, air pressure is an element of the MEI, I believe.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, air pressure is an element of the MEI, I believe.

It is.

The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI.v2) is a comprehensive climate index used to measure the intensity and phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It improves upon single-variable indices by combining five oceanic and atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific: sea surface temperatures, sea-level pressure, surface winds, and outgoing longwave radiation

[so_whats_happening]

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why I feel we want a high RONI during an El Nino event....the RONI represents a spectrum, or continuum if you will, of the ability of warm ENSO to modulate the north Pacific versus the baseline trend that is more reflective of CC, which is cool ENSO like. I think folks obfuscate this with the MEI, which simply measures the intensity of the warm ENSO coupling. RONI is not so much about the intensity of the coupling, but the war waged between ENSO and competing hemispheric forces.

I think that it could also go beyond the RONI in that the 500 mb ridges are expanding in the mid-latitudes outside the tropical oceans which RONI measures.

The 500 mb ridge across the North Pacific from east of Japan to south of the Aleutians has been unprecedented during the 2020s. Also note the slightly weaker mirroring of the pattern in the South Pacific to the east of New Zealand. 

So it’s been warming the SSTs underneath the ridge causing the -PDO to remain negative. In the old days ,the -PDO was more a function of colder SSTs off of California rather than the extensive warm pool from east of Japan to south of the Aleutians that we have today.
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think that it could also go beyond the RONI in that the 500 mb ridges are expanding in the mid-latitudes outside the tropical oceans which RONI measures.

The 500 mb ridge across the North Pacific from east of Japan to south of the Aleutians has been unprecedented during the 2020s. Also note the slightly weaker mirroring of the pattern in the South Pacific to the east of New Zealand. 

So it’s been warming the SSTs underneath the ridge causing the -PDO to remain negative. In the old days ,the -PDO was more a function of colder SSTs off of California rather than the extensive warm pool from east of Japan to south of the Aleutians that we have today.
 

 

Well, it's all connected...sure, the RONI only measures the oceans, but I think the warming oceans are somewhat connected to the more pronounced 500MB ridges....I think there is an element of feedback at play. Bottom line is there is more heat, which is being reflected in the ocean and the atmosphere, but it just so happens that the RONI only measures the former...so technically, yes...it certainly goes beyond the RONI.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 If we have (finally) turned the corner in the Atlantic to a solid -AMO cycle, what implications does that have on the NAO? 

I think it would favor more -NAO events going forward (decadally). 

Be careful that you are calling the -AMO right now is not from a lot of +NAO/+AO, especially in the warm season. Immediate term the central-south Atlantic has -0.3 to -0.4 SSTA correlation with +NAO conditions. I know, correlated immediately, inverse in the long term. 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

@LakePaste25

This is what you were talking about the other day with true, classic low frequency El Niño forcing (standing wave) setting up and sinking/subsidence over the IO and Indonesia for a change….
 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm wondering if TAO/Triton will pop a +8c in the subsurface in the next few days, as it continues to warm. It's really taking on a Strong east-based dominance. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

New York Post posted an article about Mt. Rainier possibly erupting: https://nypost.com/2026/05/29/science/most-dangerous-us-volcano-mt-rainier-could-devastate-60000-residents/

This is probably the only thing that can prevent another temperature jump from this upcoming el nino.

Remember that Pinatubo erupted in mid-June 1991, ahead of a robust el nino.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Last year March - October was all +AO monthly, 8/8 months. It looks like this March - June will be starting off +AO, 4/4 months. 

Edit: It looks like a east-based Nino/-PDO Winter composite, when rolled forward. I always like 2nd points to the same probability.