2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

Can anyone link the RONI guidance?

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/05/development-of-major-el-nino-imminent.html

 

[so_whats_happening]

That -PDO is looking to make a comeback 

[GaWx]

Darwin’s higher than normal SLP is finally starting to contribute to a -SOI. Until yesterday, it’s been mainly due to low Tahiti SLP.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

On 5/19/2026 at 2:09 PM, GaWx said:

In mid May vs 2026:

-2023 was more E based

-2015 was similar

-1997 was more E based

-1991 and 1982 were more W based

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

1982 wasn't W based. That one topped out at +4.6 on Nino 1+2, which is even higher than 1997 (4.1). If anything, 1982 should be E based.

82-83 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.6        

Nino 3: 2.9

Nino 3.4: 2.9

Nino 4: 1.3

97-98 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.1

Nino 3: 3.3

Nino 3.4: 2.2

Nino 4: 1.1

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1982 wasn't W based. That one topped out at +4.6 on Nino 1+2, which is even higher than 1997 (4.1). If anything, 1982 should be E based.

82-83 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.6        

Nino 3: 2.9

Nino 3.4: 2.9

Nino 4: 1.3

97-98 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.1

Nino 3: 3.3

Nino 3.4: 2.2

Nino 4: 1.1

Correct, but it had a -WPO, which is why it was actually a decent season.

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, George001 said:

So I’m curious why you guys think this El Niño is expected to grow so powerful not too long after our last strong event in 2023-2024. The latest guidance has this hitting high end strong at a minimum, given how this event has been developing (already near +1C on the daily in Nino 3.4, subsurface is boiling etc) that seems conservative if anything. The return rate for super ninos is what, once every 8 or so years?

It could be related to the EPAC near Nino 1+2 not fully cooling off following the +2.1 ONI event back in 2023-2024. All the ONI events over plus +2.0 since the early 1970s had a stronger return to La Niña conditions in the following years even to Nino 1+2.

We can also notice the La Ninas following super El Niños weakening over time. The recent La Niña was one of the weakest on record following such a strong El Niño.

Plus back in November of 2024 we had a Nino +1.2 warming leading to the Nino-like December 2024 pattern and the 2nd warmest CONUS December with the record +PNA for a La Niña December. Many people commented how it looked like a El Niño December. The Aleutian Low was actually pretty strong for a change.

Very unusual Nino +1.2 warming in November 2024 and Nino-like December 2024

 

So it appears that the 2023-2024 and 2026-2027 events are almost running together like the 2023-2024 event never fully ended. Something like this hasn’t happened before in or modern climate era. So it will be interesting to see what happens following this event in 2027-2028. 

La Ninas getting weaker following +2.0 ONI El Niño events

1972-1973 ONI +2.1…..1973-1974 ONI -2.0

1982-1983 ONI..+2.2…1984-1985 ONI..-1.1

1997-1998 ONI….-2.4…1999-2000 ONI -1.7

2015-2016..ONI….+2.8…2017-2018 ONI…-0.9

2023-2024 ONI +2.1….2025-2026 ONI…-0.5

Nino +1.2 never fully cooled off between El Niño events which is a first in the modern climate era.