2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

ENSO vs PNA VP

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. 

Yeah, we had the split forcing in the 2023-2024 El Niño with the record warm pool near the Dateline and another center off of Mexico like we are currently seeing. The 1997-1998 El Niño had very east based forcing since Nino 4 was so much cooler. 2023-2024 was more of a full basin event rather than an east based one like 1997-1998.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

New JMA for regions 3 and 3.4 FWIW:
 

 

[brooklynwx99]

mario ramirez super nino

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

mario ramirez super nino

Your point? All he did was post the model run

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Your point? All he did was post the model run

just messing. i agree that we're probably getting a super Nino this year

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Where you been buddy? We miss you! Down about the MEI coming in lower? 

Be back now...hard at work on post season analysis. Just complete.

[snowman19]

The subsurface continues to boil….

The cold-biased CDAS for daily Nino 3.4 SSTs:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

OT, but just for awareness.

A- on the outlook...one of my better efforts.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. 

I think it will depend on the RONI vs ONI relationship.

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it will depend on the RONI vs ONI relationship.

If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI

Only issue is that the RONI ls lagging the ONI by more this go-around, even though it is like to reach or exceed that absolute value of 1982.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI

Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. 

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. 

My educated guess is that the current/daily RONI equivalent is ~+0.5 although like the ONI it is always moving, of course.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. 

Regardless of whatever has happened in the past, I don’t think this event will have any problem at all becoming a super El Niño on the RONI or the ONI

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It will probably go Super, I just don't think it will be an all time record breaking event on the RONI. 

Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days. 

[LakePaste25]

39 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It will probably go Super, I just don't think it will be an all time record breaking event on the RONI. 

Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days. 

My cool/wet summer for the great lakes will go up in flames unless we start seeing this

[A-L-E-K]

get ready 2 torch

[snowman19]

“#ElNiño is taking over the global atmosphere. We're gonna get a brief spat of trade winds over the East Pacific due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave, followed by another large WWB as the MJO traverses back into the Pacific. Models are showing low-frequency forcing setting up over the East/Central Pacific. Looking like a very strong, classic, coupled, canonical +ENSO event starting.“

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days. 

You can see the general outline of the May El Niño 500 mb composite taking shape with alterations probably due to the competing marine heatwaves.

The coming near to record May heatwave forecast for the East next week is much warmer than we typically see with such strong developing El Niños. Stronger Southeast ridge could be a function of the weaker RONI relative to ONI and more general subtropical ridging adding a more Niña-like flavor to the mix. 

The May Western North America El Niño ridge is located a little further west than usual with the weaker Baja trough than they typically see.