2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[snowman19]

This coming high amplitude MJO push into the PAC as we go into late month, coupled with an ERW is going to cause another massive WWB and a continued strengthening of this El Niño into June. A super El Niño is inevitable at this point and very likely a top 3 super event

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Per RONI Nino 3.4, no Super El Nino was ever this low in mid-May. Might be Super per ONI and Strong, RONI. 

[snowman19]

Per RONI Nino 3.4, no Super El Nino was ever this low in mid-May. Might be Super per ONI and Strong, RONI. 

We disagree but that’s what this forum is for…sharing different opinions. I think this El Nino’s RONI breaks the all time RONI record from 1982-83 and also ends up breaking the record traditional ONI since 1950

[bluewave]

No surprise that the El Nino is beginning to couple with a westward lean close to the +30C warm pool. 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

EPS Days 11-15 looks nothing like May El Nino in the Pacific

We may be running back 23-24 as far as the Pacific pattern goes

[bluewave]

51 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^That EPS Days 11-15 looks nothing like May El Nino in the Pacific

The westward lean is closer to the +ENSO MJO 7 composite with the ridge from coast to coast. But notice how the troughs are weaker in the coming forecast near the Aleutians and Baja.

Similar to the weak La Niña this past winter when the ridge out West was stronger than the trough in the East.

While it may be too early to draw conclusions about next winter, this would result in a weaker Aleutian Low and possibly a weaker low in the Southeast like we saw in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 relative to 1997-1998 and 1982-1983. 
 

 

 

[snowman19]

The westward lean is closer to the +ENSO MJO 7 composite with the ridge from coast to coast. But notice how the troughs are weaker in the coming forecast near the Aleutians and Baja.
Similar to the weak La Niña this past winter when the ridge out West was stronger than the trough in the East.
While it may be too early to draw conclusions about next winter, this would result in a weaker Aleutian Low and possibly a weaker low in the Southeast like we saw in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 relative to 1997-1998 and 1982-1983. 
 


 


 

Let’s see what the westerlies/WWBs, +IOD and TC’s do over the next few months….how far east do they push that warm pool?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We might need a +5c El Nino to get that North Pacific High area - low pressure strong and persistent anomaly like 82-83 and 97-98. Right now I think the North pacific 500mb pattern may match 23-24 going forward more than other Stronger Nino's

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Let’s see what the westerlies/WWBs, +IOD and TC’s do over the next few months….how far east do they push that warm pool?
 

This is the first that the  +30C warm pool near the Dateline made it down to 100m in April with a developing El Nino. Notice how much warmer in all aspects we are than 2023 during the same time.

You have to wonder if this continues leading to a slower cold pool formation than we typically see toward the later stages of the El Nino in the Western Pacific. We probably wouldn’t know until next winter whether it could cause this one to wind down more slowly than usual during the spring.
 

 

 

[snowman19]

The DWKW has started to surface and an “El Nino Costero” has developed off the South American coast in region 1+2:
 

 

^ Translation: “#El_Niño_Costero. Upwelling of warm waters along the central coast is evident, as is a significant increase in air temperature along the Lima coast, with temperatures today ranging between 26-31°C. SST anomaly reaches up to 5°C along the Lima coast.”

 

[roardog]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Let’s see what the westerlies/WWBs, +IOD and TC’s do over the next few months….how far east do they push that warm pool?
 

There’s no guarantee that any of that stuff happens as modeled. I think it’s increasingly likely we are headed toward another -PDO type El Niño IMO. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The DWKW has started to surface and an “El Nino Costero” has developed off the South American coast in region 1+2:
 

 

^ Translation: “#El_Niño_Costero. Upwelling of warm waters along the central coast is evident, as is a significant increase in air temperature along the Lima coast, with temperatures today ranging between 26-31°C. SST anomaly reaches up to 5°C along the Lima coast.”

 

 Here’s the raw (rather than relative) anomaly for the daily OISST in Nino 1+2: ~+1.5C (relative is ~+1.0C)

[snowman19]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The 8 driest El Nino's with a RONI peak >+1.1 came out ... 2 El Nino - 3 Neutral - 3 La Nina the year after [27-28] ... the average RONI that next year is -0.15/yr. 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

The RONI reached El Niño status on the daily yesterday, almost +0.6C. The traditional ONI was +1.0C
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, the ERA 5 dataset doesn't have velocity potential...I hate that. @bluewave Do you know of any resources to plot VP?

[snowman19]

If this traditional ONI projection is correct, we would not only set a record for the traditional ONI since 1950, it would also set a record for the new RONI. If we assume the RONI lags the ONI by .05C to 0.6C and the traditional ONI peaks at that level, it would very easily beat the highest RONI on record since 1950, which was 1982-83 at +2.5C
 

 

^ “Well, after looking through the climate reanalysis on SST anomalies dating back to 1980. If the Preliminary SSTs get confirmed. We are now ahead of the 3 most famous El Niños on record. 1982-1983, 1997-1998 & 2015-2016. Again, I'm not kidding, we are running about 0.18 °C higher.

This El Niño has a very high ceiling with a possible peak in November & December of this year of 3.5-3.9 °C above average. Not only that, there is a slim possibility that SST in the Niño 3.4 region may hit a new all-time record of 29.9-30.0 °C, which is 85-87 F.”

 

[GaWx]

Latest CFSv2 ens AAM prog: nothing notable

[GaWx]

Latest CDAS suggests resumption of warming started: this is an approximation of ONI but with a slight cold bias (this implies RONI daily equivalent of ~+0.5)

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, the ERA 5 dataset doesn't have velocity potential...I hate that. @bluewave Do you know of any resources to plot VP?

JMA has the current velocity potential and an archive with 5 day to 3 month means.

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html

 

[snowman19]

Modeling starting to show an ERW coupling with the MJO induced WWB at the end of this month as it moves across the PAC, enhancing it….
 

[snowman19]

[EastonSN+]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Latest CDAS suggests resumption of warming started: this is an approximation of ONI but with a slight cold bias (this implies RONI daily equivalent of ~+0.5)

I will be honest, I am looking forward to energy savings. Also, 2 of the last 3 super events had a KU event. Conscious that this is a very small sample size, however I would roll the dice winter with the active sourhern jet.

Perhaps I am just greedy after the tri state area experienced 2 KU events this past winter.

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

This tweet is a bit deceptive because whereas 2026 ONI is, indeed, warmer than ‘97 and ‘15, ‘26 RONI is actually slightly cooler than both at the moment. Stay tuned to see what lies ahead!

[snowman19]

@Bluewave Here comes the next WWB/DWKW
 

 

^ “#ElNiño is taking over the global atmosphere. We're gonna get a brief spat of trade winds over the East Pacific due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave, followed by another large WWB as the MJO traverses back into the Pacific. Models are showing low-frequency forcing setting up over the East/Central Pacific. Looking like a very strong, classic, coupled, canonical +ENSO event starting.”