2026-2027 Strong El Nino

[so_whats_happening]

Sorry there is a gap around the 8th of April TAO never updated for me

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, bncho said:

Please correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t 15-16 have a pretty long period of blocking from mid-January into February? And the very warm December skewed the winter temperature?

We had a great blocking pattern for about a few weeks in January, right around the time of the snowstorm.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

That would be very much unlike any moderate or stronger El Niño on record (similar to what the prior run had). So, I still expect it to bust. This looks very strange for a strong+ Nino. The south being warmer than the north doesn’t happen with moderate+ Ninos due to the cooling associated with the stronger than average ST jet and not as cold up north due to the weaker polar jet: this looks much more Niña than Nino in the Conus.

Even though the Cansips now gets to +2.0 on the ONI, the RONI looks weaker. So the big warm pool east of Japan seems to be resulting in a record -WPO for such a strong El Nino. 

Notice how the Aleutian low is substantially weakened and is further south just off of California. I agree with you that we typically haven’t seen cool anomalies near the Great Lakes with such strong events in the past.

Perhaps the warm pool east of Japan could lead to a weaker Aleutian low and a more neutral WPO that we typically see with such strong El Niños.

We know these long range model forecasts are often full of errors. If they can just get one thing right like the WPO, then I would consider it a valuable contribution. But it’s still to early to know for sure about details like the WPO this far out in time.

I guess the one takeaway is that most of the models are now at or above +2.0 for at least ONI.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thats the way to run a strong nino. Cansips has been hellbent on a 3rd straight cold winter in the Great Lakes.

Snowman must have missed that part of the seasonal forecast in his tweet regurgitation.