2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2015-2016 was unique that it combined with the MJO 6 getting the greatest absolute temperatures and departures all the way to the East Coast. 

That is a good point....like @LakePaste25said, maybe it just means the extreme anomalies are more relegated to the nation's mid-section.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, jconsor said:

Having a weak stratospheric PV in Nov is quite uncharacteristic of a strong El Nino:

https://x.com/rjameswx/status/2115111708884869209

I'm surprised that 1963 and 2002 are there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Traditional ONI: almost +3.5C RONI: +2.9C The EURO has been dead balls accurate with this event. The over +4C peak it shows for December is not only believable, it’s very likely. Also, the subsurface warming continues. My final call is a December peak of +4.0C - +4.1C (traditional ONI) and +3.5C - +3.6C (RONI). I think the subsurface peaks next month at +13C

Maybe the EURO is doing better than the guidance continuously underestimating El Niño, but it looks like it's been overshooting to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

My peak of +3.2-3.7 RONI and +3.7-4.2 ONI prediction I made a couple of months ago is looking alright. Might have even gone a little too low. 

My latest call as of Latter September was peak RONI between 3 and 3.2 and 3.4 to 3.6 for ONI during NDJ. One final assessment next week.

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe the EURO is doing better than the guidance continuously underestimating El Niño, but it looks like it's been overshooting to me.

because the warm pool is further east 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

because the warm pool is further east 

Makes sense because it's also been too far west, along with everything else...just less so. I'm just saying, it may very well have been best, but it's not perfect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe the EURO is doing better than the guidance continuously underestimating El Niño, but it looks like it's been overshooting to me.

 The BoM has been overshooting every near month forecast by a significant margin (0.4+) since April with it averaging 0.5 too high! Oct is joining the club:

 Here was the forecast for Oct as of just 2 weeks ago, which had Oct way up at +3.5:

 

 Look how far down the Oct 24th MTD is: only +2.8! So, full Oct is likely going to end up at no warmer than +3.0, which would make its Oct forecast verify 0.5+ too warm and thus continue the trend that started with April:

 This tells me that Nov will have a good chance to end up verifying ~0.5 too warm or at ~+3.2 vs its forecast of +3.7. Either Nov or Dec will very likely end up as the peak.

 So, if BoA monthlies were to peak at, say, +3.3, then the NOAA monthlies would likely come in cooler and peak at ~+3.0 and the trimonthlies would likely peak at ~+2.8, which is where I am currently (not much change from before).