2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The Nino is not impacting the N. Pacific that much. If we can get a sustained -AO period, I don't see why it can't get cool, even Dec.

Completely disagree.

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Not really. Strong few-day troughs are common in October.

Models keep it going far longer than “a few days.” Sure we can see if they verify first, but if it persists then it’s the December Nino pattern a full month early. 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, how do you feel about last winter's early season warming? I know there was some skepticism there, as well, and it ultimately (at least partially) led to a colder turn in January. I'm not trying to gaslight you or anything, either...honest inquiry.

You know notice I am not suggesting or saying at all, that it won't be advantageous to pattern orientation ( depending on what one wants - ) ?

I'm not sure it makes a difference.   That's why I said 'straw man' above.  Not sure anyone's really arguing.  I just don't like the untrue application/attribution thing, and I read/heard a bunch of it from 'social media celebrities'

Either correlates to a favorable pattern. Think getting there via different wholesale means.   I would "possssibly" argue that the bottom-->up variety is more conducive to NE Pacific heights ...but you can see how therein in drives almost   no   difference for the N/A continent.    Contrasting, the -AO forcing from a SSW full cycle forcing has it's own variability.  In 2006-2007, for example there was a very impressive SSW museum piece event,

  Yet, the incredible balmy historic warmth ongoing across the N/A mid latitudes actually persisted for 2 weeks longer - really - than it should have.  The blocking and cold unloaded over in Russia/Siberia first, because the planetary wave # was destructively interfering the genesis of cold conveyor over on our side of the hemisphere.  That changed of course...we end up with some winter in February that year...  

Point being, these correlators for bringing cold into mid latitudes are not single sourced, as well, can vary in and of themselves.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Models keep it going far longer than “a few days.” Sure we can see if they verify first, but if it persists then it’s the December Nino pattern a full month early. 

I've already told you this, but the historical ENSO-N. Pacific trough correlation is -0.38 for Oct-Nov combined and -0.32 for Dec.

[LakePaste25]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I've already told you this, but the historical ENSO-N. Pacific trough correlation is -0.38 for Oct-Nov combined and -0.32 for Dec

The east based super Nino cool season composite is a deep GOA low and extended pacific jet December-March.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The east based super Nino cool season composite is a deep GOA low and extended pacific jet December-March.

Yeah, the Nov correlation maps are stronger over NAO area than N. Pacific. You're right. But the pattern does start in October and over enough examples might not skip a month (although Oct is further west with the pattern - you're right).