2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

Can see where the MJO is heading (solid black loop). By mid month it’ll enter 6-7-8 and constructively interfere. This mid month period is when we should really watch whether we start to see a full blown N Pacific wintertime nino pattern show up on the ensembles. 

On a side note, i highly recommend this site (https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/) for MJO tracking this season because the RMM plots won’t be much help due to the sheer magnitude of the Nino signal overwhelming the RMM mean. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

You managed to inadvertently elicit one last sneak preview of my favorable window this winter before I go radio-silent to work.....WATCH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE KUROSHIO CURRENT AND KONA LOW OUT IN THE PACIFIC CONTINUE TO GROW

[40/70 Benchmark]

The new Adam is such a breath of fresh air...I wish Forky would take a break for a couple of months.

[GaWx]

 The GEFS NAO prog continues to correct to more positive. Check out how much it has risen over the last 8 forecast days:

 

Oct. 13th fcast mean had it never getting >+1 and that on Oct. 15th with it later down to sub -0.8 for 6 days with it continuing through end of forecast period; It had Oct. 27th down at -0.9:

 

 Today’s forecast is so much more positive: it actually peaked way up at +1.73 on Oct 19th and with forecast now dipping only to -0.7 on Oct 22nd followed by a sharp rise to +0.8 on Oct 27th (vs the  Oct 13th run having it down at -0.9):

 Per @Stormchaserchuck1this solidly +NAO in Oct. is actually a good sign if one wants the chance for a -NAO domination in winter to increase. I’m just passing that along as it isn’t my own idea. Forecast models are suggesting a good chance of a -NAO in Feb, regardless. Before that will be tough imho due to at least solar but we’ll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

This will be fun to score. I think it’s way too cold of a forecast.

 

I think the mid season warming may end up more of a reflection event/CW.

[forkyfork]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The new Adam is such a breath of fresh air...I wish Forky would take a break for a couple of months.

keep the snow talk at home and i won't hammer you people