2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

Negative PDO is the opposite of what they have. It's not a cooler north pacific. Where they have a Low pressure is really a High pressure. 

[LakePaste25]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't know why you've taken on the stance that everything is normal with the El Nino and H. Hemisphere pattern. It clearly is not. We have not seen more than 4 consecutive N. Pacific low days since the El Nino began in April. 

Oct-Nov.. -0.38 max

Dec.. -0.32 max

To say that too much on the correlations and then post QBO correlation is ridiculous! I know the QBO is not anything different from random. It's not a practical surface level indicator perhaps beyond the AO effects. 

It definitely is more influential than the PDO. The PDO is a cumulative reflection of the base ENSO state over the years, it is an extratropical oceanic index that has little to no effect on the long wave pattern. 

[Jebman]

20 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

What this means is:

Mid Atlantic will see more cold air intrusions, some of which WILL time with immense moisture to produce HECS in DC;

Texas will get chilly but end up dry as crud. What else is new.

So, in summary----- EXCITING atypical Nino Winter in the Mid Atlantic which will have frequent Siberian intrusions, some resulting in major snows, flooding rains in the Southeast, and cool weather in the Southwest and mostly dry (Texas is well west of The Plume), and the Midwest will be drier than normal, milder than normal, West and Pac NW will be milder with some storminess and the SNE/NE may see a few Nor'easters.

[SnoSki14]

On 10/14/2026 at 1:42 AM, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

Definitely will see tons of volatility but that doesn't mean snow either.  We could have powerful, wet systems though if any arctic air gets involved then maybe. 

[snowman19]

The new EURO run is off the charts. All time record-breaking in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 and by a lot. This is the projected traditional ONI for each region next month, keep in mind that the El Niño will still be strengthening at this point. It has the final peak happening in December



My guess is that the ONI/RONI peaks in December. Guess for peaks:

ONI: +4.1C - +4.2C

RONI: +3.5C - +3.6C