2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

Very impressive to get a near record 594+dm Southeast ridge during an El Niño October. So a continuation of the ridge axis located further south than usual since last May. The typical -EPO October El Niño ridge will probably finish this month the furthest south for an El Niño October. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive to get a near record 594+dm Southeast ridge during an El Niño October. So a continuation of the ridge axis located further south than usual since last May. The typical -EPO October El Niño ridge will probably finish this month the furthest south for an El Niño October. 
 

 

Hopefully we can displace the ridge so far south this winter that we can pull off a Nina-like gradient pattern overlaid onto that diesel STJ....slightly further south 2007-2008 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like October will def. be +NAO, which is good.

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully we can displace the ridge so far south this winter that we can pull off a Nina-like gradient pattern overlaid onto that diesel STJ....slightly further south 2007-2008 

The ridge is transient and in response to the tropical system. Nbd

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully we can displace the ridge so far south this winter that we can pull off a Nina-like gradient pattern overlaid onto that diesel STJ....slightly further south 2007-2008 

Very impressive Southeast ridge in the means since March. So just a continuation of the ongoing pattern.

Very 1997-1998 type storm track forecast with the tropical low lifting north from the Gulf through the East into early next week.

Sometimes these October storm tracks are an early indication of what we get during the winter. But this is a much stronger east based event than that one was.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive Southeast ridge in the means since March. So just a continuation of the ongoing pattern. Very 1997-1998 type storm track forecast with the tropical low lifting north from the Gulf through the East into early next week. 
 

 

Storm track of the nor'easter last week was nice.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Storm track of the nor'easter last week was nice.

Only for Northern New England since it tracked directly into the Jersey shore. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Only for Northern New England since it tracked directly into the Jersey shore. 

Nope.....much of SNE would have been buried on that track....it got captured and backed into the Jersey shore before drifting up to the cape post-occlusion. Your portrayal is disingenuous and makes it sound as though it barreled over the Jersey shore and straight into CT or RI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Now, if you want to argue that there won't be any cold, that is a different issue....but you time that track with a polar high, and there would be a major snowfall across much of Mass/CT/RI. Is the capture that far south and tug back to NJ ideal? No, but I'm not claiming it would have been 2/6/1978...nonetheless, it would have been a major winter storm.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nope.....much of SNE would have been buried on that track....it got captured and backed into the Jersey shore before drifting up to the cape post-occlusion. Your portrayal is disingenuous and makes it sound as though it barreled over the Jersey shore and straight into CT or RI.

During the winter the antecedent warmth with a seasonally stronger STJ than the fall would prevent much snow from getting south of Central and Northern New England with a loop in from the East.

We saw tracks like this but even further south during the January 1992 Nor’easter which got pulled in from the east and also.

Plus December 1992 came in closer to the Delmarva and you had to be pretty far north to cash in on that one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

During the winter the antecedent warmth with a seasonally stronger STJ than the fall would prevent much snow from getting south of Central and Northern New England with a loop in from the East.

We saw tracks like this but even further south during the January 1992 Nor’easter which got pulled in from the east and also.

Plus December 1992 came in closer to the Delmarva and you had to be pretty far north to cash in on that one.

 Chris, you're wrong. December 1992 did exactly what I am saying...it buried most of SNE. I was in a suburb N of Boston and had 20"....Boston had like 9", as did much of N RI. The southern third of the region would have had issues, sure. I said MUCH of SNE...NOT ALL.

You are saying "antecedent warmth"....which inherently implies a dearth of +PP to the north. If there is a high in place, it will take time to dislodge that cold a stone's throw from the shore.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Chris, you're wrong. December 1992 did exactly what I am saying...it buried most of SNE. I was in a suburb N of Boston and had 20"....Boston had like 9", as did much of N RI. The southern third of the region would have had issues, sure. I said MUCH of SNE...NOT ALL.

You are saying "antecedent warmth"....which inherently implies a dearth of +PP to the north. If there is a high in place, it will take time to dislodge that cold a stone's throw from the shore.

December 1992 was a big rainstorm in Southern New England shoreline areas and NYC Metro. I guess our definitions of the geographic regions are a little different. To me anything north of the Hartford to Providence line is Central New England.

That event came into the Delmarva. So winter wavelengths with retrograding system right into NYC would probably be mostly rain in the same regions which got rain in December 1992.

Plus during the 1997-1998 winter the ridge axis was further north along with the 540 thickness line than 92-93 or the 91-92 winter. 

The January 1992 nor’easter which got pulled in from the east was also a big rainstorm for the NYC Metro area.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

December 1992 was a big rainstorm in Southern New England and NYC Metro. I guess our definitions of the geographic regions are a little different. To me anything north of the Hartford to Providence line is Central New England.

That event came into the Delmarva. So winter wavelengths with retrograding system right into NYC would probably be mostly rain in the same regions which got rain in December 1992.

Plus during the 1997-1998 winter the ridge axis was further north along with the 540 thickness line than 92-93 or the 91-92 winter. 

The January 1992 nor’easter which got pulled in from the east was also a big rainstorm for the NYC Metro area.
 

Okay, your definition of CNE is off and presumably biased by your southern perspective. CNE is from like route 2 northward....we essentially agree then. I knew there must have been something lost in translation-

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Chris, you're wrong. December 1992 did exactly what I am saying...it buried most of SNE. I was in a suburb N of Boston and had 20"....Boston had like 9", as did much of N RI. The southern third of the region would have had issues, sure. I said MUCH of SNE...NOT ALL.

You are saying "antecedent warmth"....which inherently implies a dearth of +PP to the north. If there is a high in place, it will take time to dislodge that cold a stone's throw from the shore.

I'm guessing this storm?  

[Keith Central PA]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive Southeast ridge in the means since March. So just a continuation of the ongoing pattern.

Very 1997-1998 type storm track forecast with the tropical low lifting north from the Gulf through the East into early next week.

Sometimes these October storm tracks are an early indication of what we get during the winter. But this is a much stronger east based event than that one was.
 

I guess your hyping a 97-98 winter, which makes sense with the enso.An active Southern jet with little cold air to tap. Inland sections away from the coast did do ok that winter, but probably the worst winter for the coast. It took Spring to get a snowfall, 5 inches in March.Nothing is granted to stone though.

[Keith Central PA]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

December 1992 was a big rainstorm in Southern New England shoreline areas and NYC Metro. I guess our definitions of the geographic regions are a little different. To me anything north of the Hartford to Providence line is Central New England.

That event came into the Delmarva. So winter wavelengths with retrograding system right into NYC would probably be mostly rain in the same regions which got rain in December 1992.

Plus during the 1997-1998 winter the ridge axis was further north along with the 540 thickness line than 92-93 or the 91-92 winter. 

The January 1992 nor’easter which got pulled in from the east was also a big rainstorm for the NYC Metro area.
 

Harrisburg in December 92 had 6 inches..strong winds off the warm Atlantic in mid December didn't help the coast. Actually it did change to snow at the end and Long Island which got an inch