2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Show me on the doll where mother nature hurt you....

I'm bracing for impact. My only hope is that the Super Nino and PDO act as deconstructive forces that somehow allow us to see wintry weather. 

[soadforecasterx]

Not sure the track record here but we could see another big jump soon. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

Not sure the track record here but we could see another big jump soon. 

The October "mother of all WWB" has been on the Cfs2 for close to 2 months. Hard to believe with that model, but true nonetheless. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It was a+2.1 event up until a few years ago before the CPC dropped it to +1.8. So until very recently it was rated as a lower end super. 

In any event, it’s rare to get a +AO +EPO +WPO pattern in October regardless of the ENSO. We haven’t since this October combination since the 2011 La Niña. 

But this time around we are getting a stronger mid-latitude ridge across the CONUS than 2011 had. Unusual to get such a strong TPV this early in the season.

 The CPC has 1972-3 peaking at +2.0 in its most up to date RONI table linked just below. Since RONI is the official way of classifying (and has been since Feb), that’s the current CPC official peak for 1972-3 rather than +1.8:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

 More on the transition of CPC from ONI to RONI for official classification of ENSO (this was released in Feb 2026):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/announcement.php

 From the link above:

“The Climate Prediction Center is making the shift to use the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) to better designate past events and predict future ENSO.”

———————

 The table at the link below, which is to the most up to date ONI, has 1972-3 peaking at +1.8. But ONI hasn’t been the official way for CPC to classify since Feb. At the top it says this:

This page will continue to be updated by the 5th of each month, but per NWS Public Information Statement 26-05, the Relative Oceanic Niño index (RONI) is used for official monitoring and prediction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/

@Maestrobjwa