40/70 Benchmark Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: There is a slight +NAO skew in east-based Nino composites, which while probably still warm (especially with -PDO), it probably isn't as warm as historical analog suggests. Of course these days neutral is 85% chance of above normal Winter. I just went through the numbers on the intense composite, which is mostly east-based....it's like .67 NAO for DJFM...nothing obscene. AO is is just about neutral. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 19 Author Share Posted July 19 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just went through the numbers on the intense composite, which is mostly east-based....it's like .67 NAO for DJFM...nothing obscene. AO is is just about neutral. I just think the difference between west and east-based may be a little exaggerated because of NAO domain El Nino by itself supports warm Stratosphere, which over like hundreds of years is net -NAO I think for east and west based, although slight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I just think the difference between west and east-based may be a little exaggerated because of NAO domain El Nino by itself supports warm Stratosphere, which over like hundreds of years is net -NAO I think for east and west based, although slight This is somewhat anecdotal, but the fact that 1997-1998 was extremely east-based and wasn't a severely +NAO supports your postulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That's probably when it finally has legit PNA-correlation! A lot of people think ENSO is linked to PNA but it's actually more linked to North Pacific High Is this the Walker Cycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 19 Author Share Posted July 19 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is somewhat anecdotal, but the fact that 1997-1998 was extremely east-based and wasn't a severely +NAO supports your postulation. Of course +QBO this Winter evens that tendency out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Of course +QBO this Winter evens that tendency out. Yea, I mean in general....no relevance to this season, though ...although I don't think it's as clear cut as many do for other reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 19 Author Share Posted July 19 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is this the Walker Cycle? You can see from my correlation maps above where it's centered, very near the North Pacific High max 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You can see from my correlation maps above where it's centered, very near the North Pacific High max Oh, yea...no doubt.....it's very clear in my break down of Hadley Cell placement per Modiki Index. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 19 Author Share Posted July 19 ^Yeah just keep in mind that double digit number of anlogs, and if you break it down to 3 types of ENSO events maybe a handful or two of examples... is just not very many statistically speaking. especially since I think there are larger scale global cycles that happen too (this current time period is not the same as a lot of 50-00 years imo). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: ^Yeah just keep in mind that double digit number of anlogs, and if you break it down to 3 types of ENSO events maybe a handful or two of examples... is just not very many statistically speaking. especially since I think there are larger scale global cycles that happen too (this current time period is not the same as a lot of 50-00 years imo). Yea, can only work with what we have. I don't care to get into pre 1950 analogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 This is the one that I used but your's is probably better. Walker Cycle Serves to Budget Solar Energy Focused Near the Equator by upwelling Cooler Subsurface Water and Distributing it Westward via Easterly trade Winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 BTW, -AO/-NAO doesn't have to mean cold, either...and this is just the type of season where I could see that happening. If Canada is wiped out, all an NAO block will do is trap stale, maritime air underneath it. We will need time to build the source region during any jet retractions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 19 Author Share Posted July 19 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: BTW, -AO/-NAO doesn't have to mean cold, either...and this is just the type of season where I could see that happening. If Canada is wiped out, all an NAO block will do is trap stale, maritime air underneath it. We will need time to build the source region during any jet retractions. 09-10 was the warmest Winter on record for Canada. It was also the most -NAO Winter since the 1800s. We had plenty of cold air down here, although the Pacific was favorable. NPH area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 09-10 was the warmest Winter on record for Canada. It was also the most -NAO Winter since the 1800s. We had plenty of cold air down here, although the Pacific was favorable. NPH area Yes, I was about to mention that....1997-1998 had that on display during -NAO, too. -NAO buys the coast a shot with marginal airmass and favorable storm track. Pacific def. won't be as favorable as 2009, albeit better than 2023. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 This isn't going to be cold in the mean like 2002.....too much warmth too far east for that. I think we can get some brutal cold, but it will be fleeting, like 2016 and 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 09-10 was the warmest Winter on record for Canada. It was also the most -NAO Winter since the 1800s. We had plenty of cold air down here, although the Pacific was favorable. NPH area Important to note though, those mid atlantic blizzards happened because you were able to get PV lobes dropping south from the Hudson’s and phasing. Even if this did not show up in the post season mean. One of the issues during super Ninos you tend to get too much warm air/ridge bridging in Canada for these PV lobes to really set up to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 19 Author Share Posted July 19 I think they are arguing for +EPO correlation, scarred from recent Nino's I think. The map above has a negative 500mb right in the NPH region.. that's El Nino! I don't think the EPO is always positive in El Nino, it's further north so more variance. The 1895-1950 anti-La Nina is very -EPO in El Nino. -PDO does favor +epo/+wpo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 19 Author Share Posted July 19 +2 for Nino 3.4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 19 Author Share Posted July 19 I think they are re-adjusting some of the daily SOI's. I remember it being higher in recent days. This is quite a streak: 19 Jul 2026 1013.04 1016.50 -27.15 -27.71 -19.78 18 Jul 2026 1013.56 1016.50 -23.95 -27.02 -19.48 17 Jul 2026 1013.50 1016.95 -27.09 -26.34 -19.15 16 Jul 2026 1013.27 1018.25 -36.50 -25.58 -18.73 15 Jul 2026 1012.10 1017.65 -40.01 -24.45 -18.16 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 11 Jul 2026 1011.77 1015.80 -30.66 -23.06 -16.66 10 Jul 2026 1013.16 1015.45 -19.94 -22.84 -16.52 9 Jul 2026 1011.59 1014.45 -23.45 -22.68 -16.60 8 Jul 2026 1008.90 1015.20 -44.63 -22.32 -16.71 7 Jul 2026 1009.02 1015.35 -44.81 -21.68 -16.58 6 Jul 2026 1011.31 1015.45 -31.33 -21.34 -16.28 5 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.25 -35.46 -21.21 -16.03 4 Jul 2026 1010.84 1015.20 -32.69 -21.02 -15.72 90-day SOI hasn't been -20 since 1998.. first biggest El Nino event of the 2000s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think they are re-adjusting some of the daily SOI's. I remember it being higher in recent days. This is quite a streak: 19 Jul 2026 1013.04 1016.50 -27.15 -27.71 -19.78 18 Jul 2026 1013.56 1016.50 -23.95 -27.02 -19.48 17 Jul 2026 1013.50 1016.95 -27.09 -26.34 -19.15 16 Jul 2026 1013.27 1018.25 -36.50 -25.58 -18.73 15 Jul 2026 1012.10 1017.65 -40.01 -24.45 -18.16 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 11 Jul 2026 1011.77 1015.80 -30.66 -23.06 -16.66 10 Jul 2026 1013.16 1015.45 -19.94 -22.84 -16.52 9 Jul 2026 1011.59 1014.45 -23.45 -22.68 -16.60 8 Jul 2026 1008.90 1015.20 -44.63 -22.32 -16.71 7 Jul 2026 1009.02 1015.35 -44.81 -21.68 -16.58 6 Jul 2026 1011.31 1015.45 -31.33 -21.34 -16.28 5 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.25 -35.46 -21.21 -16.03 4 Jul 2026 1010.84 1015.20 -32.69 -21.02 -15.72 90-day SOI hasn't been -20 since 1998.. first biggest El Nino event of the 2000s. That July 16th Darwin 1018.25 mb is its 2nd highest on record back to 1991. The highest is only barely higher, 1018.35 (mid-2004). *Corrected 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 2 hours ago, cmillzz said: Seems delusional to think otherwise at this point tbh. How was your winter forecast for last winter ? No one should put out a winter forecast this early no matter if it shows warmth or cold. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: BTW, -AO/-NAO doesn't have to mean cold, either...and this is just the type of season where I could see that happening. If Canada is wiped out, all an NAO block will do is trap stale, maritime air underneath it. We will need time to build the source region during any jet retractions. I think this happened a few years ago. We had a block but the air was stale. Just give me coastal storms and I will roll the dice. I foresee alot of snow to rain events for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: +2 for Nino 3.4? Don’t forget that CDAS is slightly cold biased. But this chart isn’t relative. Relative OISST is in the +1.6-+1.7 range. I’m guessing that tomorrow’s weekly relative Nino 3.4 release will have it at +1.5 with +1.6 on the high end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 19 Author Share Posted July 19 2.0 ONI in mid-July is pretty impressive. JJA ONI has never been higher than +1.6c [1997, 2015] since 1950. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 The 2015-16 El Nino screwed up the progression of the QBO if I remember correctly. Did anyone ever figure out why and if it could happen again? I would think its decent odds for this year with this El Nino, even though the QBO is off a bit from where it was then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 20 Author Share Posted July 20 6 minutes ago, raindancewx said: The 2015-16 El Nino screwed up the progression of the QBO if I remember correctly. Did anyone ever figure out why and if it could happen again? I would think its decent odds for this year with this El Nino, even though the QBO is off a bit from where it was then. Yeah, especially after Winter 15-16 2015 -26.70 -28.62 -28.15 -24.38 -12.34 2.18 7.45 10.96 12.07 13.38 12.79 11.39 2016 9.34 6.77 3.16 0.64 2.37 3.86 6.25 10.07 10.48 12.83 14.16 15.09 2017 14.92 14.78 14.35 13.88 8.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 10 minutes ago, raindancewx said: The 2015-16 El Nino screwed up the progression of the QBO if I remember correctly. Did anyone ever figure out why and if it could happen again? I would think its decent odds for this year with this El Nino, even though the QBO is off a bit from where it was then. And of course we would have a season like that right after they stop calculating it monthly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 37 minutes ago, raindancewx said: The 2015-16 El Nino screwed up the progression of the QBO if I remember correctly. Did anyone ever figure out why and if it could happen again? I would think its decent odds for this year with this El Nino, even though the QBO is off a bit from where it was then. How do you know that the El Niño is what caused this? Couldn’t it just be a coincidence? I’m suspicious of that because I couldn’t find even one similar occurrence with any of the other super-Nino events! @40/70 Benchmark@Stormchaserchuck1 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 20 Author Share Posted July 20 This is a great site to monitor the QBO. The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) El Nino's effects do propagate to the Stratosphere and the Strat winds are opposite +QBO vs El Nino so it is possible there is some correlation No other year on record was nearly as wacky as 15-17 QBO-wise. 48-53 maybe couldn't get out of -QBO and that had a string of La Nina's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: El Nino's effects do propagate to the Stratosphere and the Strat winds are opposite +QBO vs El Nino so it is possible there is some correlation No other year on record was nearly as wacky as 15-17 QBO-wise. 48-53 maybe couldn't get out of -QBO and that had a string of La Nina's. Chuck, I don’t follow you. Do you see anything that could prevent a +QBO from starting ~now or in autumn and then going through winter? If so, what? I’ve been banking on it based on the common ~24 month pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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