2026-2027 El Nino

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

it is the accuracy of the record keeping from back then.  It isn't a lie, but most likely not accurate.  It could have even been more snow, but I'd question it no matter what.

Looks like good, sound records to me. The snowfall and liquid equivalents make sense.

[snowman19]

Big signal for a strong +IOD development this summer, which will constructively interfere with El Niño

[LakePaste25]

I imagine summer in the east will be on the milder, wetter, and more humid side 

[snowman19]

If (IF) this is correct, that is insane for a 13 models/637 member ensemble mean for September, at +2.2C, since the El Niño will still be strengthening at that point. They normally peak in November or December….
 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If (IF) this is correct, that is insane for a 13 models/637 member ensemble mean for September, at +2.2C, since the El Niño will still be strengthening at that point. They normally peak in November or December….
 

UKMET has been one of the better models in recent years. It’s going ~+2.05 for Sep ONI and would likely rise a few more tenths from there. Then take off ~0.5 to convert to RONI. So, ~+1.5-1.6 C RONI in Sept and rising per UKMET.

 Euro ONI is just over +2.2 in Sept and rising, but it has tended to verify too warm although not as much warm bias verified on average in actual El Niños.

 This all suggests to me a mid to high grade strong RONI peak as of now. I’ll continue to update.

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter 

Mid Atlantic (DCA up to PHL at least) had a decent 6"+ storm in December, 1982 that was supposed to stay south in VA. Great Sunday night surprise as I remember it well. When I asked JB about it when he was still at Accuwx, he said he was jumping up and down saying it would come north but other forecasters overruled him.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

2020's here, like 30 miles away from Newark, is 29.2.  2010s I was 35.9, so Newark did better.  They have had some bad luck this decade with snow cutoffs.  1840s-60s is mostly nonsense.  

Those were the nyc totals i posted btw, bc newark didnt start til the 1930s. I figured nyc was very close. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What motive would they have to lie about how much snow fell? Newark is not the same climate as Detroit. It could have been colder and drier in Detroit than present.

I didnt say they lied. I was questioning the snowfall since NYC records began in 1869 and never averaged close to 40" (other then 2010s).

However, I did not see this Newark list. When I clicked "Newark Area" it started in 1930. Usually "area" is the most comprehensive data set for an area. But in this case its not. 

Not sure where this old data suddenly came from, but I consider any old data pre-1870 to be fascinating because of it's rarity. Indeed that does avg low 40s. Very interesting and would wonder how accurate it is. Newark 1850-1870 average is near idential to present-day Detroit average snowfall, but Newark 1850-1870 DJF still averaged 2.2F warmer and over 4" wetter in winter than present-day Detroit. I wish we had those records for here (there are some sparse observations/journals, but not enough accuracy for a complete record).