2026-2027 El Nino

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

This is really going to be fascinating to watch. If we didn’t have that very strong Nino in 23-24, I think I would be fully on board for a super Nino this year. If we would have had a strong Nina in the last two years I might even be reluctantly on board. However, since we never get such a strong Nino so close in years, it just makes me feel like something is going to fail that the models can’t see right now. In 2022 we even had the MEI get down to something like -2.2 which made a rebound strong Nino seem likely. We have nothing like that this year. 

This one would at least probably act like an E Nino.  23-24 really did not, at least not in the SE US and MA

[brooklynwx99]

for the record, this should be a strong Nino per ONI and even RONI, but taking those +2.5C euro forecasts in early April to heart is silly. wait a couple of months and see if it sticks. the euro has overdone many a Nino in the past

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

How much do the Nina years prior to 23-24 matter though? Wouldn’t that very strong Nino essentially “reset” that?

Last two years were -1.1 and -1.0 RONI, so average of last 3 years is -0.2c/yr.

I've found that 4/6+ same ENSO state shows strong tendency to reverse in the following +1-3 years. Likewise, +3-5 years after a Strong Nino (23-24) has El Nino tendency, so we are kind of hitting this from both angles. 

[George001]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

gotta pass the spring barrier. this is like a 10 day EPS forecast but for ENSO at this point in the year

Yep. A super Nino is possible but we don’t know what is going to happen. A moderate or strong event is possible as well. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Back in 2023-2024 there was a pretty big spread between ONI and RONI. The ONI peaked at +2.1 C and the RONI at +1.5 C .Yet the 500 mb pattern across the Northern Tier and Canada was similar to 1997-1998 with the CONUS setting the warmest winter on record.

Perhaps the weaker RONI was related to the lack of a robust Nino trough across Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and weaker Aleutian Low.

Plus we got a big global temperature super El Niño baseline jump even higher than 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. Also note the global temperatures hardly fell in 2025.

 

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's my concern 2023...but then again, I'm not sure winter enthusiasts would feel any better if the RONI and ONI were in lock-step.

 

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

N. Pacific is ENSO's greatest correlation

East-based shifts the Canadian ridge more east

@Stormchaserchuck1, I agree that the correlation tools have some utility, but I do think that @bluewave is onto something with the lower RONI being reflective of a negative impact for eastern winter enthusiasts....ie cool ENSO residue. Consider several moderate to strong El Nino events that were "good".....ie 1957, 1965, 1986, 2002, and 2009...EVERY ONE OF THEM had a RONI was at least equal to, or GREATER than the ONI.