Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 11:40 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:40 PM 18 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: The only time we got wet was the Nor'easter in the closing days of April, which brought a lot of rain the weekend of the 28th-30th. Other than that, late winter and spring 2023 was dry, with May being the driest on record. Late June and early July is when it got wet. I remember models were showing a lot of moisture, for several weeks. Maybe it didn't pan out. I'm also talking about for the whole US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: What are your thoughts thus far about where this niño could be headed? Basin wide strong seems like it could be in the works but obviously its still too early to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 5 hours ago, dmillz25 said: What are your thoughts thus far about where this niño could be headed? Basin wide strong seems like it could be in the works but obviously its still too early to know IMO this is going to be a high-end strong El Niño at minimum with the chances of a super event growing very quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago The “triplet” TC’s on both sides of the hemisphere is happening. They are starting to form. This is going to spark off yet another massive WWB and DWKW. The models are also doubling down on westerlies taking over in the ENSO regions later on this month. This is already starting to look like it’s going to be a record-breaking tropical storm/typhoon season in the PAC…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The “triplet” TC’s on both sides of the hemisphere is happening. They are starting to form. This is going to spark off yet another massive WWB and DWKW. The models are also doubling down on westerlies taking over in the ENSO regions later on this month. This is already starting to look like it’s going to be a record-breaking tropical storm/typhoon season in the PAC…. Which models show westerlies "taking over" Enso regions? I ask because after the pending trades and westerly burst, Cfs2 brings back the trades starting around the last week in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago I guess experimentation is over... CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO (11 Feb 2026) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Which models show westerlies "taking over" Enso regions? I ask because after the pending trades and westerly burst, Cfs2 brings back the trades starting around the last week in May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago There was a WB back into 2023 around the same time from a Rossby Wave.There was also another RW in Mid May JAMSTEC Mean shows the DMI rising into fall almost to +1.5 ATM,but when the DMI rises like this ,this is typical the norm you see more or less NINA the following year,least it's been like this the last several decades 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Right. That doesn't conflict with what I said that we have a pending trade and then westerly burst. But I was talking about a return of trades after the westerly burst near the end of May. He skipped over that and says maybe another westerly burst in June. I was under the impression with your post that there were models other than the Cfs2 that showed westerly winds maintaining beginning with the westerly burst starting April 17th or so and beyond that pushes east of the dateline. And by the way, the maps in that last link you posted in Deoras' post are old. One is from 3/19 and the other is dated 3/18 (check the solid black line on the maps that say "Begin forecast period"...don't know why his 4/3 post would do that. If interested, the current maps are at the link below along with the current Cfs2 forecast that goes out into June that he references. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago March PDO: -1.44 down from -1 in Feb https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 12 minutes ago, GaWx said: March PDO: -1.44 down from -1 in Feb https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ Not any ENSO correlation.. slight PDO +correlation to the following Dec. A lot of general +SSTA correlation to +PDO and -SSTA correlation to -PDO Following Jan has 0.4 PDO warm/cold pool correlation.. PDO sustains like 63% of the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now