2026-2027 El Nino

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MULTI-decadal cycle....it's more like 30 years.

I see...So around what year did this one actually start?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I see...So around what year did this one actually start?

[snowman19]

This is going to cause a massive DWKW and a huge shift in the thermocline….
 

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree concerning the pattern of stagnating patterns....I've noticed that, as well. Obviously if the data continues to support it, that's one thing, but at this early juncture I reman skeptical of an uber El Niño in such rapid succession with 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. If this winter is a mild, it's going to have to be due to the warm ENSO overwhelming because I just can not envision reverting to the cold west/warm east configuration of the 2020s with he tropical Pacific moving the direction that it is.

I think that it’s still too early to focus in on the exact magnitude of the El Niño which is beginning to emerge . We need to watch the development into June to have a better idea once we get past the spring forecast barrier. 

The long range climate models have more of a coast to coast ridge look going forward like we saw this March with warmth extending across the country. So this would be a departure from the cold West and Warm East configuration. 

This may be related to the continuous North Pacific warm pool from Japan to California not really matching any traditional PDO composite. So it’s theoretically possible that we can get a robust Coast to Coast ridge like we saw this March regardless of the exact strength of the coming El Niño. Since the record 500 mb ridge over the West this past winter really wasn’t related to the La Niña magnitude. 
 

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think that it’s still too early to focus in on the exact magnitude of the El Niño which is beginning to emerge . We need to watch the development into June to have a better idea once we get past the spring forecast barrier. 

The long range climate models have more of a coast to coast ridge look going forward like we saw this March with warmth extending across the country. So this would be a departure from the cold West and Warm East configuration. 

This may be related to the continuous North Pacific warm pool from Japan to California not really matching any traditional PDO composite. So it’s theoretically possible that we can get a robust Coast to Coast ridge like we saw this March regardless of the exact strength of the coming El Niño. Since the record 500 mb ridge over the West this past winter really wasn’t related to the La Niña magnitude. 
 

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/

 

 

Well, anything is theoretically possible when ENSO isn't overwhelming....because other factors dictate the hemispheric pattern...too early to say just yet.

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/29/2026 at 11:40 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, I'm not debating El Niño.....what is in question is intensity and persistence of -PDO. I think the largest concern for winter enthusiasts is a 1991-1992 type of outcome....whereas the PDO recovers to near neutral and it's still awful as the PV is very strong constricted, but I think Pinatub may have played a role there.

1991-92 wasnt bad here for a strong Nino. Average snowfall, a couple good storms. Mild overall, but multiple cold shots.

[FPizz]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

1991-92 wasnt bad here for a strong Nino. Average snowfall, a couple good storms. Mild overall, but multiple cold shots.

91-92 was 15" here, but a 10" March saved it being a total dud. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

91-92 was the strongest west-based Nino on record. It was also very +NAO/+AO in the cold season

^A lot of cold anomalies there around the volcano. Sometimes you have to zoom out and see what the bigger picture was like. 3 out of 5 times that cold of a H5 N. Hemisphere will produce cooler weather in the US

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Check out what we experienced up to 3 years after the Pinatubo eruption 

[michsnowfreak]

47 minutes ago, FPizz said:

91-92 was 15" here, but a 10" March saved it being a total dud. 

Actually had one of my favorite snow memories as a child. Snowstorm on Jan 14th. I was playing in the deep snow at my grandmas house (which is now my house). Around a foot of snow fell in 8 hours. Very dynamic quick hitting storm. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

91-92 was the strongest west-based Nino on record. It was also very +NAO/+AO in the cold season

^A lot of cold anomalies there around the volcano. Sometimes you have to zoom out and see what the bigger picture was like. 3 out of 5 times that cold of a H5 N. Hemisphere will produce cooler weather in the US

I don't understand why it's so surprising that 1991-1992 was warm because it was such a a powerful El Niño, hardly weaker than 2015. It doesn't matter whether it's east or west when it gets over 2.0. It was significantly more powerful than 2009 and 2002.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looking a the data, 2.0 is a pretty crucial threshold....you still have a fighting chance until you get over 2.0, then it's lights out. 1957 halted right at 2.0.

[40/70 Benchmark]

NAO is probably going to be crucial this year, assuming ENSO does remain at or below 2.0, which I believe that it will.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand why it's so surprising that 1991-1992 was warm because it was such a a powerful El Niño, hardly weaker than 2015. It doesn't matter whether it's east or west when it gets over 2.0. It was significantly more powerful than 2009 and 2002.

I don't agree.. the forcing is on where the Hadley Cell and mid latitude cell meet, and that forcing is north of the El Nino.. west-based strong event gives you strong +PNA. You can actually see by the composite of that cold season that we did get +PNA, it was just mixed with +EPO/+AO/+NAO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looking a the data, 2.0 is a pretty crucial threshold....you still have a fighting chance until you get over 2.0, then it's lights out. 1957 halted right at 2.0.

That 2.0 stuff is superstition. Mechanics of something doesn't change if it gets stronger. If a car that normally drives 40mph goes 100mph, it goes 100mph, not more left or right. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NAO is probably going to be crucial this year, assuming it does remain at or below 2.0, which I believe that it will.

We are still in that +1-5 year from Solar Max window. You will say the NAO wasn't that bad last Winter, but the average of the last 14 months is very ++

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't agree.. the forcing is on where the Hadley Cell and mid latitude cell meet, and that forcing is north of the El Nino.. west-based strong event gives you +PNA. You can actually see by the composite of that cold season that we did get +PNA, it was just mixed with +EPO/+AO/+NAO

Most strong El Niño events give you +PNA....excessively strong El Ninio usually has a dearth if high. latitude blocking.....again, not surprising.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most strong El Niño events give you +PNA....excessively strong El Ninio usually has a dearth if high. latitude blocking.....again, not surprising.

Most strong events have the N. Pacific low further east.. over the North Pacific High region. You can see by that composite that the N. pacific low was actually pretty west that Winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That 2.0 stuff is superstition. Mechanics of something doesn't change if it gets stronger. If a car that normally drives 40mph goes 100mph, it goes 100mph, not more left or right. 

No, until you find me a +ENSO north of 2.0 that offered a favorable outcome for winter enthusiasts, it's factual. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Most strong events have the N. Pacific low further east.. over the North Pacific High region. You can see by that composite that the N. pacific low was actually pretty west that Winter. 

I'm not arguing the pattern doesn't look different....I'm arguing it doesn't really matter if ENSO gets that powerful. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, until you find me a +ENSO north of 2.0 that offered a favorable outcome for winter enthusiasts, it's factual. 

Not enough examples. 91-92 is the only west-based event 2.0 or greater. 15-16 was the only basin wide. 0/1 and 0/1.. the rest were east-based

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not arguing the pattern doesn't look different....I'm arguing it doesn't really matter if ENSO gets that powerful. 

But why would the same thing change if it's 0.5 or 2.0?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We are still in that +1-5 year from Solar Max window. You will say the NAO wasn't that bad last Winter, but the average of the last 14 months is very ++

No argument there....highly doubt it averages negative for the season next year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Not enough examples. 91-92 is the only west-based event 2.0 or greater. 15-16 was the only basin wide. 0/1 and 0/1.. the rest were east-based

I knew you would call sample size  Well, once we get a big NE winter with a 2.1+ El Niño, I'll capitulate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

But why would the same thing change if it's 0.5 or 2.0?

I think it's a combination of the fact that there is so much excess heat in extreme warm ENSO, and it impacts the Atlantic STJ in such a manner that is very hostile to high latitude blocking.

I'd have to look back at the research to double check..been a minute. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew you would call sample size  Well, once we get a big NE winter with a 2.1+ El Niño, I'll capitulate.

Not counting one KU in the mid Atlantic....I mean above average snowfall throughout the NE and colder than average. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Orientation doesn't matter much for weak events, either.....much more disparity in weak events....ie east-based events that were colder, and west-based that were warmer.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew you would call sample size  Well, once we get a big NE winter with a 2.1+ El Niño, I'll capitulate.

If someone asked me, I'd take a repeat of 91-92 styled El Nino. the 2nd and 3rd strongest like that were 09-10 and 02-03

[Stormchaserchuck1]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew you would call sample size  Well, once we get a big NE winter with a 2.1+ El Niño, I'll capitulate.

Also there have been no La Nina's <-2.0. If there were, I bet they would be warm if they were west-based   (maybe before 1950 there were some, I'll have to check)

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Also there have been no La Nina's <-2.0. If there were, I bet they would be warm   (maybe before 1950 there were some, I'll have to check)

Agree 100%.