Winter Storm Threat *Technical* Discussion. No Op Run PBP or Snow maps

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

there is a lot here lol. NAO/big 50-50/-PNA/-WPO....alot of things fighting each other but the SE ridge is flat. Id be more worried about a southern slider here than the usual Feb nina cutter

Since it's mid-Feb, -PNA is fine! That should also lessen our worries about suppression!

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

there is a lot here lol. NAO/big 50-50/-PNA/-WPO....alot of things fighting each other but the SE ridge is flat. Id be more worried about a southern slider here than the usual Feb nina cutter

Yep. I made a post in the other thread about the teleconnections going forward earlier today. Only the -PNA is unfavorable. The NH panel shows it better.. the -WPO is key on the Pac side.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Since it's mid-Feb, -PNA is fine! That should also lessen our worries about suppression!

A -PNA can work if the other key indices are favorable: -AO/NAO and a ridge in the WPO and /or the EPO space.

[bncho]

Just now, CAPE said:

Yep. I made a post in the other thread about the teleconnections going forward earlier today. Only the -PNA is unfavorable. The NH panel shows it better.. the -WPO is key on the Pac side.

-PNA isn't even "unfavorable" in a vacuum in Mid-February. Hell it could be argued that it's better. Perhaps the amplitude at which the -PNA is occuring is unfavorable... but all the other factors Ji posted about should counteract that.

[Weather Will]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

there is a lot here lol. NAO/big 50-50/-PNA/-WPO....alot of things fighting each other but the SE ridge is flat. Id be more worried about a southern slider here than the usual Feb nina cutter

This is a lock because I rescheduled my appointment from the snowcrete storm to the 24th. Secret to a big storm is my scheduling.

[bncho]

0z GFS has the Feb 22-23 thing, it's a high end advisory event

That timeframe could hold potential. Seems like CAPE's original storm will track too far north but will bring in some cold air for the follow up wave to ride the boundary. Pretty simple way to score around here. btw since i said all this it's now my storm and not Ji's storm even though his analysis is better. 

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, bncho said:

0z GFS has the Feb 22-23 thing, it's a high end advisory event

That timeframe could hold potential. Seems like CAPE's original storm will track too far north but will bring in some cold air for the follow up wave to ride the boundary. Pretty simple way to score around here. btw since i said all this it's now my storm and not Ji's storm even though his analysis is better. 

I wouldn't sleep on the 20th. The H5 look has improved some on recent runs, specifically in the NAO space. A deep upper low near the Maritimes is helping to compress the flow underneath and the potential storm looks less like a cutter and more like a Miller B on the GEFS.

[bncho]

The GFS was really close to something for the 24th, if NS had phased quicker it'd have turned neg tilt way quicker and probably have been an HECS

it also kinda looks like the Feb 2025 debacle, similar setup, same time of year, but i'd definitely run that look back

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

The GFS was really close to something for the 24th, if NS had phased quicker it'd have turned neg tilt way quicker and probably have been an HECS

it also kinda looks like the Feb 2025 debacle, similar setup, same time of year, but i'd definitely run that look back

It's a legit window, AIFS loves it, even before it spit out that HECS just now it's been all over it tossing out various east coast snowstorm solutions there.  Other guidance hints at it.  The 50/50 from the CAPE storm...whatever that ends up being, is the key to our chances with the window around the 24th.  

[psuhoffman]

The setup for the Feb 24 window is this 

 

yea -pna but that’s about as good an Atlantic setup as we can get and later in the season is when this kind of thing can work.  The cape wave merges with NS wave rotating around the TPV to form a nice 50/50 coupled with continued ridging in the southwest NAO domain!  We would need timing but we get some cold air delivery behind the wave on the 20-21 and with that 50/50 developing it could hold off the SW flow for a few days creating a window of opportunity for something. 
 

With the crap pacific that’s what we’re looking for. Windows. We won’t have wall to wall cold in that look. But with the Atlantic and wpo we should get opportunities to time something up. 

[CAPE]

Around the 20th on the AI ENS- Miller B-ish like the GEFS. Its all about the NA.

The signal for the 24th is weaker, but there. Expected given how far out that window is. We got some chances before March, and probably beyond-

The key features are a WPO ridge and a favorable NA.

 

 

[psuhoffman]

49 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Around the 20th on the AI ENS- Miller B-ish like the GEFS. Its all about the NA.

The signal for the 24th is weaker, but there. Expected given how far out that window is. We got some chances before March, and probably beyond-

The key features are a WPO ridge and a favorable NA.

 

 

The h5 setup looks a little better (probably bc less spread at that range) than Feb 24 but my issue with the Feb 20 window is I don’t see enough cold in front of that wave.  It’s going to try to ride the thermal boundary and it’s going to be hard to have it south of us given the ridge in front. The nao will force it to secondary but my guess is not in time because of the thermals. The Feb 24 has that going for it. There is a discharge (or could be) if cold behind the Feb 20 wave and if that 50/50 is the monster the euro guidance shows it could keep enough northerly flow into the northeast to have cold in place ahead of the next wave. We don’t have that for the 20th. They’re almost identical setups synoptically but I think the 24th one will have more cold to work with. 

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The h5 setup looks a little better (probably bc less spread at that range) than Feb 24 but my issue with the Feb 20 window is I don’t see enough cold in front of that wave.  It’s going to try to ride the thermal boundary and it’s going to be hard to have it south of us given the ridge in front. The nao will force it to secondary but my guess is not in time because of the thermals. The Feb 24 has that going for it. There is a discharge (or could be) if cold behind the Feb 20 wave and if that 50/50 is the monster the euro guidance shows it could keep enough northerly flow into the northeast to have cold in place ahead of the next wave. We don’t have that for the 20th. They’re almost identical setups synoptically but I think the 24th one will have more cold to work with. 

I tend to agree wrt the potential centered on the 20th, but it has trended somewhat colder overall on the ens means and still 7 days out, so worth monitoring for more favorable changes.