Winter Storm Threat *Technical* Discussion. No Op Run PBP or Snow maps

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

there is a lot here lol. NAO/big 50-50/-PNA/-WPO....alot of things fighting each other but the SE ridge is flat. Id be more worried about a southern slider here than the usual Feb nina cutter

Since it's mid-Feb, -PNA is fine! That should also lessen our worries about suppression!

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

there is a lot here lol. NAO/big 50-50/-PNA/-WPO....alot of things fighting each other but the SE ridge is flat. Id be more worried about a southern slider here than the usual Feb nina cutter

Yep. I made a post in the other thread about the teleconnections going forward earlier today. Only the -PNA is unfavorable. The NH panel shows it better.. the -WPO is key on the Pac side.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Since it's mid-Feb, -PNA is fine! That should also lessen our worries about suppression!

A -PNA can work if the other key indices are favorable: -AO/NAO and a ridge in the WPO and /or the EPO space.

[bncho]

Just now, CAPE said:

Yep. I made a post in the other thread about the teleconnections going forward earlier today. Only the -PNA is unfavorable. The NH panel shows it better.. the -WPO is key on the Pac side.

-PNA isn't even "unfavorable" in a vacuum in Mid-February. Hell it could be argued that it's better. Perhaps the amplitude at which the -PNA is occuring is unfavorable... but all the other factors Ji posted about should counteract that.

[Weather Will]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

there is a lot here lol. NAO/big 50-50/-PNA/-WPO....alot of things fighting each other but the SE ridge is flat. Id be more worried about a southern slider here than the usual Feb nina cutter

This is a lock because I rescheduled my appointment from the snowcrete storm to the 24th. Secret to a big storm is my scheduling.