1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[GBOVolz]

Very surprised @TellicoWx wasn’t added to the WSW


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[John1122]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Which that is 10:1...could have bigger amounts?

I would think 1.5x those amounts at minimum with the entire column so cold.

[John1122]

Not surprised by a WWA for my area. Not sure if the models will be correct, and there are a few now that are misses. I think they likely based everything off the NBM which is ultra dry over my area for some reason. I assume it's got heavy influence by hi-res models, even though they are very out of their range currently.

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Very surprised @TellicoWx wasn’t added to the WSW


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Nope...and inch or less is my point forecast lol

[tnweathernut]

Let's ride east Tennesseans.  I'm hopeful the system can throw moisture back a bit more west (ala the Euro) to get as many from our forum as possible in the boat.

[Tucker1027]

We need the 18z NAM to get on board. 

[nrgjeff]

Chattanooga will eventually get a winter weather advisory, but I think we are still a period away. Perhaps afternoon ZFP. Thankfully it's on a Saturday, but light snow will turn roads immediately icy like the 2014 debacle.

Knoxville could get more than a few inches of powder. Classic travel related WSW. Powder should be no problem for the power infrastructure. Plus it's well away from the main Restoration Area. 

Absurd cold at 500, 700 mb and periods of subtle WAA at 850 will do it. Leads off with slight WAA ahead. Then some WAA into the cold core later hours. Plus that DGZ beneath where models usually "look."

Finally yea, the Carolina mountains are going to have Utah level powder. Ski conditions don't get any better in the World. And it's gonna be right here! If one is already ski in ski out. Roads? oof!

 

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Not surprised by a WWA for my area. Not sure if the models will be correct, and there are a few now that are misses. I think they likely based everything off the NBM which is ultra dry over my area for some reason. I assume it's got heavy influence by hi-res models, even though they are very out of their range currently.

They're leaning heavy on the NAM/NBM...which one is flawed and inputs into the other. 

[BlunderStorm]

Euro continues the stair step trend with things a little more reigned in for 12z. Just like the RGEM though still solid.

[Bigbald]

5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Let's ride east Tennesseans.  I'm hopeful the system can throw moisture back a bit more west (ala the Euro) to get as many from our forum as possible in the boat.

 

[GBOVolz]

Nope...and inch or less is my point forecast lol

How is that even possible with these odds from MRX.


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[nrgjeff]

Straight from WPC! My hype train has left the station.

[GBOVolz]

Straight from WPC!

What’s that from?


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[John1122]

16 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Nope...and inch or less is my point forecast lol

My forecast also says 1 inch or less. Not surprisingly, that last NBM map shows 1 inch or less in my area.

[GBOVolz]

Straight from WPC! My hype train has left the station.

Never mind. I missed the info part. Lol


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

That WPC map is almost unbelievable.  

[John1122]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

That WPC map is almost unbelievable.  

That is likely the 1/10 chance map.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, John1122 said:

That is likely the 1/10 chance map.

Oh yeah, I just saw the "High End" wording.

You could have just let me believe for a few more minutes. 

 

[bearman]

I am in Cedar Bluff area of Knoxville and my point forecast is, "An inch or less possible, maybe, if everything goes perfect, fat chance.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

edited for key:

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Oh yeah, I just saw the "High End" wording.

You could have just let me believe for a few more minutes. 

 

Ironically, it actually aligns with the Euro/EuroAi/WeatherNext 06z/GFS/Canadian/RGEM at this point.

[Tucker1027]

BAMS

[AMZ8990]

I’m pumped to see you guys/gals in East Tn have a good storm to track, Good luck and have fun!

[TellicoWx]

If you read the WWA verbatim on my phone it says expect 1 to 33 inches lol (that would be hilarious if it wasn't a glitch).

[Tucker1027]

[fountainguy97]

I've lived here since June 2019. The largest snow I've seen in that time is 7" from an over performing NW event in February of 2022.  I may finally break that 7" record this weekend.

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said:

I've lived here since June 2019. The largest snow I've seen in that time is 7" from an over performing NW event in February of 2022.  I may finally break that 7" record this weekend.

From one downsloper to another............ don't jinx it.  lol

Kidding aside, this is a great setup for those south and east of I-81 for once and that doesn't diminish the chances north and west of 81 either.

[GBOVolz]

I've lived here since June 2019. The largest snow I've seen in that time is 7" from an over performing NW event in February of 2022.  I may finally break that 7" record this weekend.

Didn’t you get at least 7 in Jan 24’?


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[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Didn’t you get at least 7 in Jan 24’?


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I had about an inch and got downsloped.  Guessing he did also.

[tnweathernut]