1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[MattPetrulli]

RAP on board

So we're really doing this huh

[Scottie16]

Weather is beautiful.


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[Greyhound]

Yes and it confirmed I was correct. It doesn't use the Euro op. It uses the 50 individual members and it was using old ones for the run. I selected hr 42 6hr snowfall, and it used the hour 60 panels of the ensembles for the forecast. 

It reminds me of some kind of witches brew concoction that doesn’t make sense to anyone but the witch


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[John1122]

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

RAP on board

So we're really doing this huh

While it is hopefully correct since it matches all other modeling at this point, the RAP struggles at range. 

[Vol4Life]

CMC at 0z is very similar to RGEM as you would hope/expect

[Reb]

They give John less than an inch and he blows up their whole forecasting model. Stud.

[Stovepipe]

So 0z RGEM for Knox verbatim starts snowing at 7pm Friday and stops 7pm Saturday - 4 to 6 inch snow gradient across the county west to east.

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Reb said:

They give John less than an inch and he blows up their whole forecasting model. Stud.

It was a bad bad model last storm. It kept showing heavy snow here when actual good models had long showed the warm nose was on the wall. I'm honestly mystified that forecasters lean that heavily into it. It may eventually be right, but not using the hands down best weather model on the planet's Op is just crazy. Instead as you get closer it relies more and more on shaky models. Giving a large weight to the HRRR at 20+ hours is some wild work. 

[TellicoWx]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It was a bad bad model last storm. It kept showing heavy snow here when actual good models had long showed the warm nose was on the wall. I'm honestly mystified that forecasters lean that heavily into it. It may eventually be right, but not using the hands down best weather model on the planet's Op is just crazy. Instead as you get closer it relies more and more on shaky models. Giving a large weight to the HRRR at 20+ hours is some wild work. 

If they want to weight it like that, then have at it lol...but why use old data is beyond me. Always knew the thing was goofy acting, but seems to me they tried to automate being a Met instead of doing the hard work.

[John1122]

If the Euro doesn't just fall flat for us tonight, I'll be fairly confident in a 3 to 5 inch event for me, with higher amounts east of 75, maybe 10+ in SW Va and NC border areas. I hope for a few inches for Nashville and hope Chattanooga can cash in too. 

[TellicoWx]

If one of you guys runs the East TN Storm Trackers Page then I apologize...but this right here is the scary/sad part. EMA directors re-posting a page of 42 Hr total of the HRRR is like posting a 240 HR GFS as verbatim.

[John1122]

11 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

If one of you guys runs the East TN Storm Trackers Page then I apologize...but this right here is the scary/sad part. EMA directors re-posting a page of 42 Hr total of the HRRR is like posting a 240 HR GFS as verbatim.

The local EMS page is running MRX's 1 inch graphic. 

[Stovepipe]

The RAP is comin' in hot.  

[Stovepipe]

Big timing difference between current 03z RAP and 0z RGEM (for Knox) - RGEM snow 7pm Fri to 7pm Sat, RAP 8pm Fri to 8am Sat with similar totals.  Would lean towards RGEM at this time but still interesting.

[John1122]

Euro basically maintains its last 3 runs. 

[Reb]

Euro holds serve with 7” across most of Knox co

[ShawnEastTN]

MRX just added Meigs, Rhea and Bledsoe to the advisory, and OHX just added several plateau counties all the way back to Putnam county.

[Hurricaneguy]

Someone mind to share the Euro kuchera?

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

MRX just added Meigs, Rhea and Bledsoe to the advisory, and OHX just added several plateau counties all the way back to Putnam county.

Loudon and Monroe added to WSW

[ShawnEastTN]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

London and Monroe added to WSW

Ahh didn't catch that!

[Reb]

[ShawnEastTN]

1 minute ago, Reb said:

I'd take my ~4" and call it a day

[Stovepipe]

2 minutes ago, Reb said:

[John1122]

They also added Union and Claiborne to the WSW. I suspect they NBM finally got the 06z Euro Ens data. 

[Hurricaneguy]

2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I'd take my ~4" and call it a day

sorry had to lol

[TellicoWx]

Just now, John1122 said:

They also added Union and Claiborne to the WSW. I suspect they NBM finally got the 06z Euro Ens data. 

Hopefully by Sun morning it will have tonight's 0z model data

[ShawnEastTN]

1 minute ago, Hurricaneguy said:

sorry had to lol

Yeah thought about that only after I posted it.

[Stovepipe]

Not a fair comparison due to the temporal resolution, but timing for Knox relative to RGEM and RAP:  Euro has half an inch laid down by 7pm Friday and is winding down by 1pm Saturday.  RGEM 7pm-7pm, RAP 8pm-8am.

2 inch difference with the gradient west to east, 3 to 5 inches 10:1.  Can't see Kuchera on free Pivotal but looks like maybe 5 to 7 based on Reb's image.

[Reb]

Point and click now has me a 4”-8” and zone area forecast now shows 3”-5” Friday night and “additional heavy accumulation” Saturday.

[TellicoWx]

After reading that AFD...all I want to say is "No Sh** Sherlock". No direct mention of the NBM and finally talking about what the soundings have been showing all day.