February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[BlizzardNole]

51 minutes ago, LongRanger said:

fwiw, during the cold winters of the '70s, the longwave pattern shifted as spring neared such that we flipped to the warm side

This reminds me of the winter of '77 in MD where we got a moderate snow of around 6" with a crust of ice followed by weeks of frigid and dry.  The glacier lasted for weeks and January was an incredible -12 departure at DCA, but it lacked in the total snow department.

[clueless]

@270 we get clipped on the GFS. Also just one week shy of sun angle season. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

19 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Any idea of when the February thaw arrives?

With our luck, March.

[87storms]

25 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

With our luck, March.

Temps in the 30s might feel like a thaw by next week.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

Feb 11-12 window?

Long way out so I would expand that window a bit.. 

The NA looks very favorable and I know Chuck will swoop in here and do his -PNA deb thing, but this works out at times(more so in a Nino) with potentially significant energy ejecting eastward from the SW.

[Weather Will]

Sigh:  WB 18Z EURO AI; can't make this stuff up.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Sigh:  WB 18Z EURO AI; can't make this stuff up.

LOL come on dude with the snow maps 2 weeks out

[Weather Will]

Just now, CAPE said:

LOL come on dude with the snow maps 2 weeks out

I know but that picture fits the mood right now....