February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

All I care about is getting the forecast right.. why we don't snow anymore as the past is your own tangent. I don't think it's as big of a difference as you make it look, but I don't want to spend a lot of time arguing that.. since 2017 I've observed a downstream bias in medium range models with PNA. Adjustments and make a forecast accordingly, it has worked out so far. Want to guess what the high temps are on the storm day? 

45 in DC? 42 in Baltimore? Feb 15-16

If we can’t snow without a EPO PNA ridge it’s a huge deal because a lot of our snow used to come withoit that. There was snow before 2017. And 2017 on has been our worst god damn snow period ever and your acting like that’s normal AND saying climate change is no big deal. You can’t have both of those takes they don’t coexist 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Dude we just had one of the coldest 3 week stretches in history, and it was the 2nd time that happened this Winter. It's not all lost omg! We are just in extremely bad Pacific patterns lately, in the wintertime. You're underestimating the Pac influence a little bit. More neutral is what you're looking for, not +450dm. 

[Nomz]

I want the chuck vs psu live ppv

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Pac ridge is about as unfavorable as a spot as it gets in the 20-25 plot.. it's a little further west in the 1970s, allowing some space for gulf of alaska negative anomaly.. our snowiest patterns are negative gulf of alaska, so those little differences are actually big.. it's fragile. 

Ok then find me any 5 year period where the N pac averages +50m like 2020-2025. Fuck find me a period that was even +40. You can’t. Because it was never warm enough to get those kinds of heights before. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok then find me any 5 year period where the N pac averages +50m like 2020-2025. Fuck find me a period that was even +40. You can’t. Because it was never warm enough to get those kinds of heights before. 

Here's my favorite

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Dude we just had one of the coldest 3 week stretches in history, and it was the 2nd time that happened this Winter. It's not all lost omg! We are just in extremely bad Pacific patterns lately, in the wintertime. You're underestimating the Pac influence a little bit. More neutral is what you're looking for, not +450dm. 

It’s like my points go right through you. It was cold because the whole other was perfect. I’m talking about when the pattern is not good. We torch anytime the pattern is bad because the pac is overwhelming now because heights are higher and so when there is a n pac ridge it’s not +100 it’s 400. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's not all lost omg

He didn’t say all was lost. He was saying that marginal setups fell off a cliff starting in 2017 and if we can get them to be more workable again once we fully break out of the bad pac pattern is TBD.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here's my favorite

That’s the period I am taking about Chuck. I said find me another period In the fucking past close to that level of warm anomaly 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s like my points go right through you. It was cold because the whole other was perfect. I’m talking about when the pattern is not good. We torch anytime the pattern is bad because the pac is overwhelming now because heights are higher and so when there is a n pac ridge it’s not +100 it’s 400. 

So why is -PNA more extremely warm and +PNA more extremely cold lately? Dunno.. maybe it's something we aren't seeing. AGW isn't PNA consistency though. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

He didn’t say all was lost. He was saying that marginal setups fell off a cliff starting in 2017 and if we can get them to be more workable again once we fully break out of the bad pac pattern is TBD.

JFC I was starting to think I wasn’t articulating well enough. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

He didn’t say all was lost. He was saying that marginal setups fell off a cliff starting in 2017 and if we can get them to be more workable again once we fully break out of the bad pac pattern is TBD.

We have had a smaller % of neutral setups.. the lowest DC's high temp in the Wintertime gets is 40F, Jan 27. Baltimore gets down to 39F. 2-3 weeks surrounding that it's mid 40s. We need "neutral" for marginal setups, not 3std -PNA's. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s the period I am taking about Chuck. I said find me another period In the fucking past close to that level of warm anomaly 

That's why I said it's extreme. It's extremely extreme coming up, too. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

So why is -PNA more extremely warm and +PNA more extremely cold lately? Dunno.. maybe it's something we aren't seeing. AGW isn't PNA consistency though. 

I know the answer. I’m asking YOU! 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's why I said it's extreme. It's extremely extreme coming up, too. 

[SnowenOutThere]

For those wondering yes this is how we know we're in true midseason form. BTW @psuhoffman what's your advice for debating people. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We have had a smaller % of neutral setups.. the lowest DC's high temp in the Wintertime gets is 40F, Jan 27. Baltimore gets down to 39F. 2-3 weeks surrounding that it's mid 40s. We need "neutral" for marginal setups, not 3std -PNA's. 

Yea but if heights are higher now, and the are, when the pacific configuration is hostile it’s more hostile. That’s my whole point. We don’t her marginal anymore. We get either good or hopeless which means the marginal part of our past snow climo is now missing.  
 

You’re so close but you’re twisting yourself into a pretzel to ignore the common threads tying this all together. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Feb-March's 2018-2026 so much more -PNA than the past.. like 160% of number 2. That's interesting! Maybe it has something to do with temps starting to get warmer after Jan 27th, and the start of the rise to spring right after? It's something interesting to watch this Feb-March too.. does the 8-year trend persist? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea but if heights are higher now, and the are, when the pacific configuration is hostile it’s more hostile. That’s my whole point. We don’t her marginal anymore. We get either good or hopeless which means the marginal part of our past snow climo is now missing.  
 

You’re so close but you’re twisting yourself into a pretzel to ignore the common threads tying this all together. 

I don't think it's a marginal setup at all.. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

For those wondering yes this is how we know we're in true midseason form. BTW @psuhoffman what's your advice for debating people. 

Don’t 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Don’t 

Mhm probably the best advice, but supposing you had to what would you say. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't think it's a marginal setup at all.. 

ok so why aren’t we getting marginal setups anymore! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

ok so why aren’t we getting marginal setups anymore! 

Because the PNA isn't neutral

[ravensrule]

45 minutes ago, bncho said:

He's a debate coach. I would probably quit the forum if it were me vs PSU in a debate.

I honestly think he is the master debater in this Country. 

[Nomz]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Because the PNA isn't neutral

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Mhm probably the best advice, but supposing you had to what would you say. 

You serious?  Depends on the situation. For example I’ve been forced to advocate for positions I knew were weak and not clear winning arguments. What you do in those cases is very different. Then it becomes about minimizing damage. Attempting to deflect and exaggerate. 
 

But if you know the point you want to make is valid…1) focus on 2-3 points no more. 2) know how to articulate it clearly. 3) don’t let the other person deflect. When they try to take the debate off on a tangent redirect and reframe it back where you need it. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Btw for those trying to understand PSU's argument about higher heights in the 500mb layer as a result of climate change here are some slides from my fall course about how geopotential height works. Basically, higher heights are caused by a thicker slice of atmosphere below the 500mb layer. Warmer air is a thicker slice of air due to the Ideal Gas Law. 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Feb-March's 2018-2026 so much more -PNA than the past.. like 160% of number 2. That's interesting! Maybe it has something to do with temps starting to get warmer after Jan 27th, and the start of the rise to spring right after? It's something interesting to watch this Feb-March too.. does the 8-year trend persist? 

You were sooooo close 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You serious?  Depends on the situation. For example one been forced to advocate for positions I knew were weak and not clear winning arguments. What you do in those cases is very different. Then it becomes about minimizing damage. Argentine to deflect and exaggerate. 
 

But if you know the point you want to make is valid…1) focus on 2-3 points no more. 2) know how to articulate it clearly. 3) don’t let the other person deflect. When they try to take the debate off on a tangent redirect and reframe it back where you need it. 

Will use this in some of my argumentative essays for my modern political theory class. Thank you 

[psuhoffman]

Chuck even recently 75% of the globe is red. We just got lucky the tiny speck of cold was over us. But what about the rest of the time?  How do we snow when we’re not lucky enough to have the rare cold anomaly over us when the rest of the globe is a hopeless torch of +anomalies too warm to us to snow. 
 

You said it. We don’t her marginal anymore. Because the whole planet is tiny pockets of cold surrounded by warmth. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Chuck even recently 75% of the globe is red. We just got lucky the tiny speck of cold was over us. But what about the rest of the time?  How do we snow when we’re not lucky enough to have the rare cold anomaly over us when the rest of the globe is a hopeless torch of +anomalies too warm to us to snow. 
 

You said it. We don’t her marginal anymore. Because the whole planet is tiny pockets of cold surrounded by warmth. 

Boring. Your map of snow events completely missed the +450 Aleutian anomaly. This coming storm is not a good platform to base this "it doesn't snow anymore in marginal" stance.