January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[MacChump]

1 hour ago, Lady Di said:

Sorry for the non weather question.  I’m old and a widow so preparing.  Adam Joseph said don’t shovel the snow before it flips cause you’ll never get the frozen stuff off a bare walk.  Is he correct?

 

Just had a pretty good wind gust.  Cold front incoming. Wind chimes going nuts just now. 

It makes sense. If you shovel the snow  and the pavement is bare when it starts to sleet/freezing rain you'll need a jackhammer to get it clear. I'm thinking it will be easier to remove with at least a few inches of snow beneath and just a crust of ice on top. Not going to be fun in any event. 

[RedSky]

1 minute ago, bigtenfan said:

Do they believe the NAM?

They agree with the warm punch

[Duca892]

I will wait patiently for the NAM and plan a meltdown accordingly 

[Birds~69]

12 minutes ago, RedSky said:

They agree with the warm punch

You really know how to silence a bunch of weenies..

[RedSky]

Dave doesn't think there's much sleet in Lancaster

[RedSky]

I don't understand that the NAM pounds them with sleet too

[LVblizzard]

HRRR doesn’t get the mix line past the Lehigh Valley. Stalls it at southern Lehigh County then retreats towards the turnpike. We’ll see if the NAM follows.

[zenmsav6810]

5 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

HRRR doesn’t get the mix line past the Lehigh Valley. Stalls it at southern Lehigh County then retreats towards the turnpike. We’ll see if the NAM follows.

PD II had a retreating sleet factor like this.

[Violentweatherfan]

1 hour ago, Prairie Dog said:

If anyone is interested. The Joe and Joe weather show will have DT, Bill Goodman from Upton, and Alan Kasper on live at 735 PM

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fyoutube.com%2Flive%2FdL7K-oOsNuY%3Ffeature%3Dshare%26fbclid%3DIwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAYnJpZBExd1BmYlRDSHppb2Z3amtXU3NydGMGYXBwX2lkEDIyMjAzOTE3ODgyMDA4OTIAAR66QJFGGFoXNZQyCVSFl2PZKw3OyE9q_hEQQnQJ5rCR_T5ZcdbDYjD3xUZsAA_aem_xTjdkXJiSMS49KhYQXI0eg&h=AT1wewvmSCpABlIdqEjFvLkAP8t0tp3_FCO6GL6JPLigfxF8hzduLVJIxf98Pv75cxWft455qG28IIT2gUBXudWEoVyXi-aE_08zOtIva79o5z2LIsRsPxQJgb8B6Hqrn-i7fpyg6B5EATD1&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0]=AT1hBYTZdDbvtPsi4BqQr_3Fe9cj2CIIzkmqlTBFa_liWZVSxS2ascr18tLV6YsLzIMxJgDV62Lopa9_OxFu43qeuXxjs4CI3eHYUSjpXdhhIqlzeKsLFcxIFNHxZoHfzPbpOwAUp17KIXnMQpE-CILvM4ee1q_cq77itAfwWRlJC8v49O0ENaO0ZTjk7rqEu1NGEuDJdHBn6g7l-9z4tzdqAg

That was really good thank you

[Violentweatherfan]

54 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Radio show guys think the bulk of the storm is 10am-4pm Sunday

That show was outstanding

[Violentweatherfan]

52 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Do they believe the NAM?

To a degree, yeah they’re they’re looking at short range models. You should find that Lincoln watch it. It’s a really good.

 

edit don’t drink and post at the same time

[Hurricane Agnes]

My dewpoint just went negative (-1) so this PV means business.  Temp is down to 21.  If that kind of dry air hangs around for long enough, I can imagine a period of virga.

0z 3k NAM is running.

[RedSky]

The 2007 sleet storm was tremendous fun

[Birds~69]

48 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I don't understand that the NAM pounds them with sleet too

It made zero sense but I just let it go...

[LVblizzard]

33 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

HRRR doesn’t get the mix line past the Lehigh Valley. Stalls it at southern Lehigh County then retreats towards the turnpike. We’ll see if the NAM follows.

And it didn’t follow…still torches the mid levels. 6-10” for the area then sleet. Just 20-25 miles more south with that line and we’re back though. This isn’t over by any means.

[RedSky]

.35"zr into Philly this run

[RedSky]

DT was right it's warmer

[LVblizzard]

3km NAM literally has my house right on the line for hours. Route 22 is basically the dividing line between a big storm and a bust.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Waiting for some more frames on it but it definitely has a dividing line there.

[Birds~69]

14 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

My dewpoint just went negative (-1) so this PV means business.  Temp is down to 21.  If that kind of dry air hangs around for long enough, I can imagine a period of virga.

0z 3k NAM is running.

DP -8 here via WU

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

And it didn’t follow…still torches the mid levels. 6-10” for the area then sleet. Just 20-25 miles more south with that line and we’re back though. This isn’t over by any means.

Its over south of i78. Avg 4-6 nickel and dimer....though the sleet will make it seem like a MECS

[Fields27]

3km NAM literally has my house right on the line for hours. Route 22 is basically the dividing line between a big storm and a bust.

Insane how 3 days ago we were worried about being fringed.

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

[LVblizzard]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Its over south of i78. Avg 4-6 nickel and dimer....though the sleet will make it seem like a MECS

I’m literally 1/4 mile south of I-78. Good thing weather doesn’t follow interstate highways like that!

[RedSky]

The sleet output should be epic in southeast Pa

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, LVblizzard said:

I’m literally 1/4 mile south of I-78. Good thing weather doesn’t follow interstate highways like that!

You get the idea.  Dont be so literal.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The sleet output should be epic in southeast Pa

2007 will be put to shame in many areas.

[RedSky]

The ground is going to be white deep into March 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I’m literally 1/4 mile south of I-78. Good thing weather doesn’t follow interstate highways like that!

If it makes you feel better, here's the most biased cold model the fv3, often wrong, seldom right. A big hit!

[RedSky]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

2007 will be put to shame in many areas.

It sucks bad 1.5" we dry slot it away

2.5" DC they do it right

[Hurricane Agnes]

0z NAM + the temps from it at 700 mb.  You can see why it's doing what it's doing with what it thinks is gonna happen.