January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[RedSky]

10 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I have been going through that and the MA gets huge amounts of sleet but not up here based on that GFS run!

288hr map has 2.3"sleet in Philly

[Roger Smith]

Some parts of ePA could see 18-24 inches, question being how far north of PHL would that most likely verify? I am thinking Allentown towards Catskills of se NY is the sweet spot for this storm. I am taking a consensus but relying on GFS to be closest to verifying. You'll notice in 18z GFS there is promising evolution off the coast of a faster deepening low that tries to push back northwest before being pulled around closer to Long Island. That would likely result in strong banding of snow overnight Sunday into Monday. There will be mixing issues somewhere between PHL and SBY, I hope it doesn't mix anywhere in PA but it probably will briefly near the end of the storm most likely, by then the bulk of precip will have moved past, 

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

288hr map has 2.3"sleet in Philly

That's the next Thursday storm I think (vs this weekend)!  Trying to get through this one! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

37 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Seems to be downplaying any sleet/ZR!  Looks to be an outlier.  May have to see what it does for the 0z.

100% outlier. I mentioned earlier today, the gfs will cling to an outlier solution right up to and even during the start of an event at times. It's a stubborn s.o.b. but dont fall for it.

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

That's the next Thursday storm I think (vs this weekend)!  Trying to get through this one! 

No zero sleet its a cold storm thursday

[bringmesnow1]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

100% outlier. I mentioned earlier today, the gfs will cling to an outlier solution right up to and even during the start of an event at times. It's a stubborn s.o.b. but dont fall for it.

There's a reason its called "Good For Shit"

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

 I am taking a consensus but relying on GFS to be closest to verifying. You'll notice in 18z GFS there is promising evolution off the coast of a faster deepening low that tries to push back northwest before being pulled around closer to Long Island. That would likely result in strong banding of snow overnight Sunday into Monday. There will be mixing issues somewhere between PHL and SBY, I hope it doesn't mix anywhere in PA but it probably will briefly near the end of the storm most likely, by then the bulk of precip will have moved past, 

Leaning on the GFS? Interesting. From your keyboard to God's monitor. Lfg!

[Violentweatherfan]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Leaning on the GFS? Interesting. From your keyboard to God's monitor. Lfg!

The GFS hasn’t budged with the redevelopment location off the coast 

[RedSky]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Leaning on the GFS? Interesting. From your keyboard to God's monitor. Lfg!

[rickymortyx]

GFS has been poor with thermals all winter, no way I'm trusting it despite how good it looks. I think Philly burbs should do well (6-8"+), there'll be a threat of mixing in the SE burbs in NJ.

 

I'm expecting at least an hour of sleet here after a nice front-loaded dump of snow, highly doubt we see rain but hi-res models will begin to come into play soon.

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

The GFS hasn’t budged with the redevelopment location off the coast 

Im telling you, it can be a real stubborn s.o.b. at times. If it doesnt budge and it is wrong, they seriously should retire it.

[Hurricane Agnes]

10 minutes ago, RedSky said:

No zero sleet its a cold storm thursday

Pivotal's maps don't have a separate "sleet" frame.  Just the frozen.

ETA - 18z EC is running.  Will see what that has to say!

[RedSky]

Ralph any theories why GFS doesn't deduct .70" qpf sleet from Philly snow amounts did it forget

[bringmesnow1]

Stolen from MA thread, but AIFS is south... is our blind squirrel GFS boutta find an acorn?

 

[RedSky]

4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Pivotal's maps don't have a separate "sleet" frame.  Just the frozen.

ETA - 18z EC is running.  Will see what that has to say!

Yeah I think it is a weathermodels map

[rickymortyx]

1 minute ago, bringmesnow1 said:

Stolen from MA thread, but AIFS is south... is our blind squirrel GFS boutta find an acorn?

 

Anyone have the sleet/frz rain map? How much of this is actually snow, I can't see the precipitation maps or soundings.

[Newman]

The 18z Euro AIFS did make a small nod to the GFS in that it kills off the primary and transfers to the coast sooner

[Duca892]

Uh did the EURO OP just do a crush job as well?

[RedSky]

10:1 map from NYC has 6.3 Philly

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Uh did the EURO OP just do a crush job as well?

Looks the same as 12z to my eyes.

[rickymortyx]

8 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Uh did the EURO OP just do a crush job as well?

Not seeing it. Looks the same. 6-10" Philly. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, RedSky said:

10:1 map from NYC has 6.3 Philly

Could you imagine if this keeps trending into just another nickel and dime event for SE PA?

[RedSky]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks the same as 12z to my eyes.

How much for Philly this run Ralph

[Roger Smith]

GFS has to win sooner or later, even the Vancouver Canucks won last night! (after 16 losses in a row, they are aiming for first draft pick now). This looks like a cold storm start to finish to me subjectively speaking, but I am wary of the taint factor even so. Hoping it takes so long to ooze north over WV that it's a non-factor near the end anyway. 

[Kevin Reilly]

31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

100% outlier. I mentioned earlier today, the gfs will cling to an outlier solution right up to and even during the start of an event at times. It's a stubborn s.o.b. but dont fall for it.

Thanks for the advice I am going ALL IN on the GFS chips forward.  I BELIEVE!!!  Primary will bounce off the large high and confluence up north giving us 10" of overrunning then that primary low will transfer its energy to a new coastal at the Virginia Capes and Move NE to ENE from there giving us another 10-12" on a NNE flow winds gusting to 35-40 mph around the High to the north and the low to our southeast and east.  Total snow in Media 22" Let's Go!!

[rickymortyx]

18z NAM is snow to sleet. I don't know any model that shows us staying as snow the entire storm.

Let's see how long we hold on.

[RedSky]

The map Sacrus posted is cliff jumping worthy but it has no hours or time stamp 

[bringmesnow1]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Could you imagine if this keeps trending into just another nickel and dime event for SE PA?

Hey, at least we're not talking about plain rain!  As a kid I cannot tell you how many storms did not materialize, or finding the temperatures for 33° and a cold rain. Just thrilling.

 

[RedSky]

One mystery solved the 18z euro planted a dryspot subsidence zone over Philly and burbs 

[Hurricane Agnes]

33 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Yeah I think it is a weathermodels map

And so you proceeeded to send me down the rabbit hole to sub to that.  I remember when they first came out and were free (for some stuff).  But times change... 

Their 18z GFS 282 hr sleet map - still looks to be down just below Philly metro.