1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

I’ll see if I can find the article I read earlier but your guess is correct. That air mass is from what I understand more dense than modeled.


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A big error with models is they don't "see" the cold right at the surface.  I have been forecast for snow in NE TN...only to have it verify in north Alabama before.  Why?  Lots of reasons.  One....sometimes the cold is undermodeld.  These could just be ebbs and flows on modeling, but trends have to be watched.  The GEM-para shift is noticeable.

[Tucker1027]

Going into our 2 pm briefing with MRX


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[Matthew70]

24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Real feel Euro for next Thursday.  @Matthew70, this is what we don't want, right?  -40 real feels in the Apps. -10s to -20s in the valleys.

Especially if anyone is wo power.  I love winter with ELECTRICITY! 

[Matthew70]

I know many of my city garages are calling in their crews on Saturday & Sunday.  That way if a salt truck goes down they can get it fixed & back up & running.  

[Tucker1027]

NWS prepared the briefing as EURO was coming out and basically said that…

Said trending for more ice.

Gives Chattanooga 49% chance of >.25 of ice would not be surprised if it’s more especially in mountains.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Girdeth y'all's loins if you rely on the Kroger in Oak Ridge

 

Hope you already have all the bread and milk you need for your bread and milk sandwiches:

 

 

 

Don't forget the sour cream dip for your milk sandwiches

 

Home Depot also out of propane 

[submariner]

I know many of my city garages are calling in their crews on Saturday & Sunday.  That way if a salt truck goes down they can get it fixed & back up & running.  

I used to work for the State in the garage. When winter weather was coming in, we went into automatic 12 hour shifts to take care of the salt trucks. Man those blades were heavy.


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[housemtnTN]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Girdeth y'all's loins if you rely on the Kroger in Oak Ridge

 

Hope you already have all the bread and milk you need for your bread and milk sandwiches:

 

 

 

Don't forget the sour cream dip for your milk sandwiches

Reminds me of the beginning of covid.

There's a highly infectious respiratory virus going around, let's buy ALL the toilet paper!!!

[Matthew70]

2 minutes ago, submariner said:

I used to work for the State in the garage. When winter weather was coming in, we went into automatic 12 hour shifts to take care of the salt trucks. Man those blades were heavy.


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Heavy & the salt destroys the equipment.  Keeps me busy with the SS to replace on them. 

[Matthew70]

3 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

Reminds me of the beginning of covid.

There's a highly infectious respiratory virus going around, let's buy ALL the toilet paper!!!

I went 2 days ago.  Had all my kiddos go also.  The lines yesterday I heard were all the way back thru the isles & snaking around the back of the store. 

[Matthew70]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Girdeth y'all's loins if you rely on the Kroger in Oak Ridge

 

Hope you already have all the bread and milk you need for your bread and milk sandwiches:

 

 

 

Don't forget the sour cream dip for your milk sandwiches

 

Home Depot also out of propane 

Funny but not funny story.  So the Home Depot local here told me they have emergency orders come in.  Well instead of generators & salt.  They sent them plastic shovels. Plastic!  

[submariner]

Heavy & the salt destroys the equipment.  Keeps me busy with the SS to replace on them. 

It’s hell on a pair of boots, too.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Matthew70 said:

Funny but not funny story.  So the Home Depot local here told me they have emergency orders come in.  Well instead of generators & salt.  They sent them plastic shovels. Plastic!  

Yeah I was just at the Home Depot and they had a bunch of cheapo plastic shovels marked up to around $30.00

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah I was just at the Home Depot and they had a bunch of cheapo plastic shovels marked up to around $30.00

I still have my 14-15 snow shovel.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I still have my 14-15 snow shovel.  

The nice thing is they don't wear out quickly here. I actually bought a snow pusher a couple of days ago for my decks. Maybe I'll get to use it eventually. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

SREF makes me think the NAM might tick north again. 

 

[Tucker1027]

https://x.com/gmengel/status/2014425234389033133?s=46&t=sfs6kta7ijyVFPbzpqZcJg


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said:

https://x.com/gmengel/status/2014425234389033133?s=46&t=sfs6kta7ijyVFPbzpqZcJg


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I am very glad I don't live in one of the freezing rain CAD areas of GA or the Carolinas for this one. 

[nrgjeff]

Been up since this morning. I missed it on the Public page. Looks considerably better than some of the lighter (blowtorch) charts I've seen. Mostly lines up with national WPC stuff too.

I'd still back off for KCHA (use those lower charts) but I like this one points northeast in the Great Valley. Crazy downslope still shows in the foothills, while keeping the other side of the Valley locked. And those elevations are in the warm layer.

[Matthew70]

37 minutes ago, submariner said:

It’s hell on a pair of boots, too.


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Work boots can get expensive! 

[Matthew70]

6 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Been up since this morning. I missed it on the Public page. Looks considerably better than some of the lighter (blowtorch) charts I've seen. Mostly lines up with national WPC stuff too.

I'd still back off for KCHA (use those lower charts) but I like this one points northeast in the Great Valley. Crazy downslope still shows in the foothills, while keeping the other side of the Valley locked. And those elevations are in the warm layer.

Those are high %s.  My daughter is in Dayton.  

[bearman]

19 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

SREF makes me think the NAM might tick north again. 

 

If it keeps us out of the ice, It would be great.  If we don't have snow, forget it.

[bearman]

50 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Girdeth y'all's loins if you rely on the Kroger in Oak Ridge

 

Hope you already have all the bread and milk you need for your bread and milk sandwiches:

 

 

 

Don't forget the sour cream dip for your milk sandwiches

 

Home Depot also out of propane 

Got all our shopping done yesterday, and it was nothing like that.  Walmart in West Knoxville had called in all their workers, and they were stocking as everyone was grabbing it off the shelf or off the stocking guy's cart.

[GBOVolz]

A couple days ago I ordered a whole bunch of canned food, macaroni and cheese stuff like that from Amazon just in case the power did go out. I’ve got a cooktop for propane tanks and a generator that’s big enough to run a microwave. I decided to do that after I had my wife go to the store on Tuesday then I got to thinking we might run out of food because we went to the store too early. The good thing is, we have plenty of frozen stuff to eat in which we can put it outside if needed.


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[Tucker1027]

NAM is slower it seems 

[Mrwolf1972]

Nam all weird says it's 32 in valley at start and rain then temps drop. 

[Tucker1027]

1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Nam all weird says it's 32 in valley at start and rain then temps drop. 

Yeah.. but soundings are freezing rain. weird but probably just a reflection issue.

[Tucker1027]

NAM is off for some reason... has basically no CAD at all. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z NAM is hammering TRI.  Tucker, I see CAD on WxBell.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said:

NAM is off for some reason... has basically no CAD at all. 

Looks like it has quite a bit from the weatherbell maps