1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If I had to pick a model I liked best right now for MBY, it would be the RGEM. Sleet to a bit of freezing rain, to plain old rain:

[Jed33]

It looked to me that the Ukie was also a little colder and just a tick south as well. 

[Weatheriscool]

19 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z Euro, nice and slow:

 

seems to hold on to the cold air a bit longer than it did at 0z

 

Yea, the most recent run keeps my area as some type of frozen precip the entire event while the run prior to the most recent gets the rain close to us for an hour or two 

[Carvers Gap]

From MRX and a stellar write-up over night w/ mountain wave discussion to boot....Never know, this might have been written by a contributor here.  

National Weather Service Morristown TN
620 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

- One last day of warmer temperatures today with light
  precipitation exiting to the southeast.

- Confidence in a significant winter storm affecting the southern
  Appalachian region Saturday into Monday is increasing. However,
  it must be stressed that details on where the axis of heaviest
  precipitation and resulting wintry precip totals remain unclear.
  There is also the possibility that some will see only rain or a
  combination of rain and freezing rain. This weekend`s system
  will need monitored closely.

- Cold air behind this weekend`s storm will keep temperatures
  at/below freezing during the day with some very cold mornings.
  This will prolong the effects of any winter weather, with power
  outages possible as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Discussion on the weekend system starts with the third paragraph.

A cold front lays to our west with light precipitation mostly
along the mountains now. Only a few hundredths of an inch, at
best, have been recorded across the forecast area last night.
This weaker system will exit the region around mid-morning today.
Today will also be the last day of 50s for highs across much of
the forecast area through possibly the rest of the month.

For tomorrow, northern parts of the forecast area will most
likely remain dry up until the strong weekend storm arrives. High
pressure tries to punch in on the backside with nearly zonal flow
aloft following the shortwave responsible for the Wednesday
system. It`s possible that whatever precipitation reaches into the
forecast area Friday, will mix with other forms of precipitation
type, especially across higher elevations. Surface temperatures
will be colder Friday. However, this is a window of warmer air
aloft trying to be replaced by colder air to the north.

Like it has been stressed for almost every new forecast run, we
just want to re-iterate that this forecast is very difficult and
has changed from run to run. Consensus still trends warmer, but
will get into that in a bit. On-set could be early or mid
Saturday, depending on many factors; models still vary on this. A
later arrival and peak of the event have trended out in time.
Sometime overnight Sunday or Monday morning is when the core of
the precip shield should be mostly to our east with some wrap
around possible on the back-side.

So, what is the set-up for this? Surface high pressure is expected
to dive down from western/central Canada. Compared to 24 hours
ago, it is close to 10 mb weaker from the strongest reading it
had in previous runs. Longwave troughing sinks south across the
country, meanwhile, a Baja upper low/closed low will eventually
eject eastward once it phases with the mean flow. Headed later
into Friday, a low center over the Four Corners region forms with
a couple of other low centers over northern Mexico region. A front
also arcs along the Gulf coast. Later Saturday an additional low
center forms near the FL Panhandle, as well as another off of the
Carolina coast. How the high pressure to our north and the Gulf
and Carolina lows interact, is pretty much the end all be all of
just what impacts we will see in regards to precipitation type.
The high and troughing will send in the colder air, however a
strengthening low to our south will send overrunning air out of
the southerly direction, or simply, much warmer air. Although
confidence has been severely low up until this point, the
confidence in higher snowfall amounts is surely lessening with
what seems to be a weaker surface high, therefore much warmer
temperatures at the surface, and signals for fairly strong
southerly low level winds. High wind potential or mountain wave
enhancement will need monitored especially during the Saturday
night time-frame. The NAM and RRFS runs show near 70 kts of
southerly low level flow. That would bring strong winds and gusts
to the mountains and foothills.

Overall, things could still change, BUT surface temperatures have
increased each forecast run for Saturday and Sunday highs, to be
precise. We just haven`t gotten into ranges or specifics on
snowfall totals, for example, because of just how much this
forecast has changed. Amounts were essentially slashed from
yesterday afternoon`s totals. I believe the increasing unknown or
challenge will be the question of freezing rain or rain and how
much. Storm total QPF range in the area of nearly 2 inches to
over 3 inches. In conclusion, the rain/snow line has shifted
north, therefore, snowfall amounts are decreasing from south to
north, with increasing chances of freezing rain and rain with each
new forecast run so far. Counties bordering Kentucky and West
Virginia are trending towards mostly snow with the greatest
amounts of the forecast area.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

"Compared to 24 hours ago, it is close to 10 mb weaker from the strongest reading it had in previous runs."

-Surely not??

 

Just what we need, mountain wave with 0.5" of ice accretion! Woot woot!

[GBOVolz]

BAM hit the lottery 

Are you really here for the weather?


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[*Flash*]

21 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Are you really here for the weather?


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I ask myself the same thing sometimes. You can ignore/hide people on TennesseeWx but not AmericanWx from what I understand. Lotta of Debbie Downers on other sites right now contributing nothing but their mood swings. If they creep into our forum, best to just ignore them. I've been on weather forums for 20 years now and this, by far, is the best in terms of knowledge base AND level-headedness.

[Brocksterdanza]

It’s looking as though for us in the Central Valley that our only hopes are to now pray the surface temps do not get anywhere near the 43 they are now suggesting. I really felt like we had this one… nothing like a swift kick in the gut to get you back to zero. Haha.


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[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

"Compared to 24 hours ago, it is close to 10 mb weaker from the strongest reading it had in previous runs."

-Surely not??

 

Just what we need, mountain wave with 0.5" of ice accretion! Woot woot!

Pretty sure one of us......thankfully well written.

[GBOVolz]

lol… what is the UK doing?




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[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, GBOVolz said:

lol… what is the UK doing?




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Powell, it's after noon over there. Now that the Greenland stuff is sorted out they're letting it drink a little. 

[Scottie16]

Thanks for the post Carver!

Today we are in short range mode. I know all of us have more than likely thrown the towel in for snow but dammit we could still see some dangerous freezing rain. There’s no crying in meteorology.


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[Carvers Gap]

To be clear...I think if the eastern foothills see a mountain wave event, that would very well cause so much warming that the foothills in those areas would have mostly rain.  

[GBOVolz]

Powell, it's after noon over there. Now that the Greenland stuff is sorted out they're letting it drink a little. 

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[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

lol… what is the UK doing?




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I wonder if they don't sort ice accumulations from snow?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

To be clear...I think if the eastern foothills see a mountain wave event, that would very well cause so much warming that the foothills in those areas would have mostly rain.  

Northern plateau areas can see smaller versions. Not good for Scott county TN as well as parts of northern Morgan and Eastern Fentress

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Brocksterdanza said:

It’s looking as though for us in the Central Valley that our only hopes are to now pray the surface temps do not get anywhere near the 43 they are now suggesting.

I would love 43 at this point. I want as little ice accretion as possible. 

[Utvols235]

Are you really here for the weather?


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Don’t worry he will bang his fists on the high chair later today and say he’s never doing this again and weather is stupid.. but he will be in here front and center in two weeks to track the next one.


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[Brocksterdanza]

I would love 43 at this point. I want as little ice accretion as possible. 

I agree, not a fan of ice…


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[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Northern plateau areas can see smaller versions. Not good for Scott county TN as well as parts of northern Morgan and Eastern Fentress

It is interesting, because the first area that warms in NE TN is Greene Co...looks like the Camp Creek area. I have been trying to figure out for days if that was just a weird spot on the grid(like Boone's) or if it was something else.  

[Carvers Gap]

Which models trended cooler at 0z?  That will save me from having to dig back through icy maps!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Which models trended cooler at 0z?  That will save me from having to dig back through icy maps!

Euro trended colder at 6z but that’s all I’ve really looked at. 

[GBOVolz]

Don’t worry he will bang his fists on the high chair later today and say he’s never doing this again and weather is stupid.. but he will be in here front and center in two weeks to track the next one.


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I’m not gonna talk bad about him, I don’t know him and I’m sure he’s a good guy but it feels like he gloats in our misery at times. What I’m doing is bad for the board and this is the last time I’m touching this subject. It’s not worth getting ran off.


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[Carvers Gap]

52 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

If I had to pick a model I liked best right now for MBY, it would be the RGEM. Sleet to a bit of freezing rain, to plain old rain:

That would be convective storms falling into freezing temps in the Carolinas.  Good luck to our friends on the other side of the Apps.  We had better hope the eastern Valley doesn't hold on to below freezing temps.

One thing of note(and so I don't have to post another post...this part isn't for you, Holston), when downslope winds come out of the SE, there is sometimes a weird but plausible phenomena which occurs.  The cold air gets pushed westward(away from the Smokies and Apps spine) and up against the Plateau on the west side of the eastern valley.  It sometimes takes longer for the west side of the TN River (foothills of the Plateau) to get above freezing.  That has happened IMBY several times.  In fact, I have seen JC in the mid to upper 40s while I am in the low 30s.  It is not super long in terms of duration, but interesting to watch.

[Scottie16]

Baja low is being bullied right now but the tables will turn later on.


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[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

I’m not gonna talk bad about him, I don’t know him and I’m sure he’s a good guy but it feels like he gloats in our misery at times. What I’m doing is bad for the board and this is the last time I’m touching this subject. It’s not worth getting ran off.


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He is a good poster for sure.  Just gets frustrated like the rest of us.

[Scottie16]

That would be convective storms falling into freezing temps in the Carolinas.  Good luck to our friends on the other side of the Apps.  We had better hope the eastern Valley doesn't hold on to below freezing temps.
One thing of note(and so I don't have to post another post...this part isn't for you, Holston), when downslope winds come out of the SE, there is sometimes a weird but plausible phenomena which occurs.  The cold air gets pushed westward(away from the Smokies and Apps spine) and up against the Plateau on the west side of the eastern valley.  It sometimes takes longer for the west side of the TN River (foothills of the Plateau) to get above freezing.  That has happened IMBY several times.  In fact, I have seen JC in the mid to upper 40s while I am in the low 30s.  It is not super long in terms of duration, but interesting to watch.

Tellico can attest to that during the 2024 January storm. Sweetwater got hammered but not so much towards his neck of the woods. IIRC.


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[Scottie16]

Euro trended colder at 6z but that’s all I’ve really looked at. 

Check the icon.


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[GBOVolz]

Tellico can attest to that during the 2024 January storm. Sweetwater got hammered but not so much towards his neck of the woods. IIRC.


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I felt terrible for him. It’s hard to read these mods and see our snow disappear, I can’t imagine being on here living in Halls watching it rain and reading about Maynardville 15 minutes away having 8+ inches of snow.


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[Scottie16]

Watching the dirty wave over the Canada/ Alaska area and if my eyes aren’t deceiving me it looks like the BL is weakening.


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