1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[dwagner88]

3 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

ICON…

This screams trapped cold air in the valley which our in-house met said today.

The icon also handled today’s system the best 2-3 days out. (I know that doesn’t mean much m)


.

This actually looks more like very strong CAD rounding the corner of the mountains in North GA and affecting the southern valley. It has happened before. I think in the early 2000's.

[Tucker1027]

Also, to note on the ICON



.

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

This actually looks more like very strong CAD rounding the corner of the mountains in North GA and affecting the southern valley. It has happened before. I think in the early 2000's.

I am glad you said that.  I have noticed that same feature on other models as well...and it seemed like it could bleed into Chatty from there, but I couldn't remember.  These big highs are capable of doing it.

[Matthew70]

33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 0z NAM at range...

 

We are so screwed.

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z ICON (as was the NAM)....little bit flatter but still sends a strong reflection westward(edit).  The ICON just about shifts the low to east of the Apps.  As is, it ran the spine of the Apps.  Their was less reflection west, but for sure....a decent amount...just less.  Both models ticked south a bit.  Both are icy as is the RGEM w/ shoves a weak low into the forum area.  No big jumps at this point.  

[John1122]

MRX has a lot of eggs in a heavy GFS blend. 

 

[Vol4Life]

0z GFS is rolling…

[Scottie16]

The 0z ICON (as was the NAM)....little bit flatter but still sends a strong reflection eastward.  The ICON just about shifts the low to east of the Apps.  As is, it ran the spine of the Apps.  Their was less reflection west, but for sure....a decent amount...just less.  Both models ticked south a bit.  Both are icy as is the RGEM w/ shoves a weak low into the forum area.  No big jumps at this point.

Almost GFS time.


.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is rolling.  It is important to remember that tomorrow night is also big due to more HH data being utilized.

[Carvers Gap]

Big 1054 hp in north, central MT at 30 and 36.  HP might be a hair west (could be slower and actually not west).  Otherwise. similar to 18z.

[Carvers Gap]

Early in the run, the position of the Baja low(and it may not matter) has been maybe 25-50miles southwest of 18z just based on quick glances at each 500 vort map tonight.

[Carvers Gap]

Out to 60...minute differences to this point when compared to 18z.

[Carvers Gap]

Maybe and hour or two slower at 63...track looks similar for wave one.

[Carvers Gap]

By 78, the GFS is doing something wonky w/ the polar jet(squashes the bend like bending a straw a bit to much).  

[Tucker1027]

and we lost the GFS...

[WintryMixmaster]

22 minutes ago, John1122 said:

MRX has a lot of eggs in a heavy GFS blend. 

 

For how conservative they usually are, this seems... extreme. Especially given that the GFS ticked north again and has Knoxville mostly ice. Is there a single model showing 4"+ for Knoxville at this point, let alone 7"?

[Carvers Gap]

Definitely more amped by the GFS.  Looks like a lot of ice.

[Carvers Gap]

That was a really odd phase out West w/ the northern stream losing symmetry for lack of a better word.  Didn't have that parabolic look.  Looked like you bent a straw and held it on its side.

[Vol4Life]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Definitely more amped by the GFS.  Looks like a lot of ice.

Looks like a lot of plain rain to me

[Tucker1027]

Just now, Vol4Life said:

Looks like a lot of plain rain to me

but not before getting an inch of ice.... 

 

getting an inch of ice then going into a thunderstorm is something. 

[WintryMixmaster]

Dusting of snow then sleet then ZR then rain... honestly if we're gonna get that much ice, I'll happily take the rain to help take the pressure off the power lines before the impending cold

[Tucker1027]

would rain at 33 or even 34 not freeze on contact if we already have .75 of ice ? 

[Carvers Gap]

Interestingly, the 0z GFS runs a weak surface low from south Alabama into south/central Georgia and into the Carolina Piedmont to end the storm.  Just something to watch w/ future runs.  Pretty heavy icing over the eastern 2/3 of the forum.  Hammers Atlanta metro.  The rain snow axis didn't jump as much as I thought it would.   Ice is the story as it was at 12z for all other models.  GFS is on board.

[Vol4Life]

Just now, Tucker1027 said:

would rain at 33 or even 34 not freeze on contact if we already have .75 of ice ? 

No..not usually that I’ve seen

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Looks like a lot of plain rain to me

Nope.  It could end up that way in reality, but not that run.

[Matthew70]

BAM hit the lottery 

[Tucker1027]

Just now, Vol4Life said:

No..not usually that I’ve seen

Thank you. I have not lived through an ice storm... 

 Haven't sorta started to prepare, but honestly don't know what to prepare for here in Chattanooga. 

[WintryMixmaster]

2 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

would rain at 33 or even 34 not freeze on contact if we already have .75 of ice ? 

I'd think that with the moderate/heavy rates shown and during the daylight hours, the rain wouldn't freeze on contact. Hopefully anyways

[ShawnEastTN]

With the ice it's projecting for East Tennessee for essentially 24 hours from 12z Saturday to 12z Sunday that few hour time above freezing probably isn't even going to make much difference in all reality. That ice will be catastrophic as depicted. Verbatim many folks won't have power for a week.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Hillbilly]

2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

With the ice it's projecting for East Tennessee for essentially 24 hours from 12z Saturday to 12z Sunday that few hour time above freezing probably isn't even going to make much difference in all reality. That ice will be catastrophic as depicted. Verbatim many folks won't have power for a week.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk


 

Hopefully the trend continues until it is an all rain event and turns into the biggest model bust in history.