1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[John1122]

GFS OP vs GEFS. The GEFS is similar to yesterday and has been consistent. The GFS Op was dry (relatively) like this at 12z yesterday, 18z too I think.

 

[John1122]

update to the update. I did see the 12z UKIE but it crashed off Pivitol and has restarted.

update, mistakenly looked at the 0z.

The UKIE is an amped up QPF giant that has a too big warm nose up the Apps. It's know for thermal issues. Still snows well over a foot in places, especially middle Tennessee.

[Mrwolf1972]

12 gefs

[John1122]

The AIGFS has about 50 percent more QPF than the GFS imby. .51 on the GFS, .90 on the AI.

[Mrwolf1972]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The UKIE is an amped up QPF giant that has a too big warm nose up the Apps. It's know for thermal issues. Still snows well over a foot in places, especially middle Tennessee.

My ukie on pivotalweather.com says 06z

[Mrwolf1972]

I think the next runs will go back to the 6z runs 

[John1122]

Just now, Mrwolf1972 said:

My ukie on pivotalweather.com says 06z

Apparently I somehow clicked on 00z and thought it was 12z.

[Coach B]

6 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

12 gefs

This map from Pivotal must include sleet and ice unlike the WxBell maps. It's significantly higher, and probably more realistic given the likelihood of significant sleet accums on the southern end of the snow band. 

[John1122]

The UKIE did run on Pivotal but somehow crashed off after I'd seen it already. 12+ over the midstate. The pivotal map may include sleet on the 10:1, not sure.

[John1122]

With the Euro AI starting the current score card =

GFS/AIGFS somewhat suppressed.

GEFS middle ground.

ICON/Canadian/UKIE amped.

[John1122]

Euro AI is going to join the weaker camp most likely.

[John1122]

Actually its going to be pretty similar to 06z it appears.

[John1122]

It's going to be a huge ice storm towards the southern border it appears, as 850s approach almost exactly I-40 in Knoxville but stay at 33ish longer near Chattanooga but surface temps stay in the 20s in Chattanooga.

[Vol4Life]

@John1122do you believe the warm nose with such a strong HP NW of us?  And do models account for dynamic cooling through the column?

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Vol4Life said:

@John1122do you believe the warm nose with such a strong HP NW of us?  And do models account for dynamic cooling through the column?

Yes, unfortunately the warm nose is a demon we often fight against, especially the southern valley. Yes, models account for it, but the warm nose on some models is extreme around 800mb to 850mb. There's no way for rates to cool that much of a warm nose.

[nrgjeff]

We need a little help from the Northern stream per the GFS. If Chatty gets that warm nose aloft, without the usual surface push, it's lights out!

Dynamic cooling will help those already mostly sleet. No help with the saturated freezing rain soundings. I prefer the GFS for more snow here, but even that's bad for MS/AL.

[John1122]

1 minute ago, nrgjeff said:

We need a little help from the Northern stream per the GFS. If Chatty gets that warm nose aloft, without the usual surface push, it's lights out!

Dynamic cooling will help those already mostly sleet. No help with the saturated freezing rain soundings. I prefer the GFS for more snow here, but even that's bad for MS/AL.

Not sure if it was sleet or zr, but that Euro AI run gave you probably close to 1.2 inches of non-snow QPF over Chattanooga proper. Northern Hamilton was enough to get about double the snow down vs downtown.

[Tucker1027]

Well time to go buy a generator…..

Don’t like this look for Chattanooga.


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[John1122]

The Euro is a massive ice storm 40 and south/east of 81 in East Tennessee by the look of it. 850s further north that run. 

[Vol4Life]

Just now, John1122 said:

The Euro is a massive ice storm 40 and south/east of 81 in East Tennessee by the look of it. 850s further north that run. 

Why can’t we have anything nice??

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Vol4Life said:

Why can’t we have anything nice??

It's always a war it seems. Especially along I-40.

[Vol4Life]

Just now, John1122 said:

It's always a war it seems. Especially along I-40.

In your opinion, what do we need to keep it primarily snow?

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Vol4Life said:

In your opinion, what do we need to keep it primarily snow?

Everything to shift south like on the GFS.

The Euro warmed enough for rain in Chattanooga and up towards Knoxville for a brief period. That would help some with the ice. 

[brewman22001]

Is the battle line right around the Knoxville zoo with this run or is that area still primarily supposed to be snow?


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[John1122]

Just now, brewman22001 said:

Is the battle line right around the Knoxville zoo with this run or is that area still primarily supposed to be snow?


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That run, all of Knox switches to freezing rain it appears. It reaches north to around Clinton and to around Johnson City in the east. The Plateau and Midstate and points west are more snow, except towards Alabama border areas.

[John1122]

Even with the freezing rain switch, there are 4-8 inches of snow south of 40 it appears.

[tnweathernut]

The ejection of the energy in the southwest is the problem.  If it's faster it slides across in tandem with the high pressure.  If it's delayed the high gets a bit out of sync with it.  The problem is, the trough in the southwest has slowed on most models.  Doesn't mean there can't be a widespread major winter storm, but it does introduce the possibility of freezing rain much further north.

[brewman22001]

That run, all of Knox switches to freezing rain it appears. It reaches north to around Clinton and to around Johnson City in the east. The Plateau and Midstate and points west are more snow, except towards Alabama border areas.

Oh wow!! I hope that ice line goes back south!! Thank you so much for all the info, I truly appreciate it


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[Vol4Life]

Just now, John1122 said:

Even with the freezing rain switch, there are 4-8 inches of snow south of 40 it appears.

Is that the OG Euro?  I’m only out to 108 on pivotal

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Vol4Life said:

Is that the OG Euro?  I’m only out to 108 on pivotal

Yes, it's faster on other sites.