January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[DTP]

2 minutes ago, AppalachianWedge said:

I thought they were saying late afternoon/evening. This map is 8pm... Correct?

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Lol- I think "were" is the key word here

Who knows with this storm?  The ST models started throwing out more plausible solutions around 18z yesterday, but this is well in advance of anything the models were throwing out over the last 24 hrs

[AppalachianWedge]

Lol- I think "were" is the key word here
Who knows with this storm?  The ST models started throwing out more plausible solutions around 18z yesterday, but this is well in advance of anything the models were throwing out over the last 24 hrs

Very true statement. This storm could go down historically in terms of severity and in terms of forecasting.

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[gman]

WSPA is saying about the same as WYFF. The models are trending downward on the precipitation. WSPA is now at 0.36” of accumulated ice. They must see something on the lastest models to be in agreement. I love the NWS, but with this storm, they seem to be late on their discussion changes.

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, AppalachianWedge said:

I thought they were saying late afternoon/evening. This map is 8pm... Correct?

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Models had been showing later for the heavy moisture to arrive. That dinnertime start time was likely based on light precip possibilities and also accounts for trying to get people off the road in case it starts early 

[DTP]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Models had been showing later for the heavy moisture to arrive. That dinnertime start time was likely based on light precip possibilities and also accounts for trying to get people off the road in case it starts early 

Several runs were spitting out a finger of earlier front-running precip until yesterday over W NC- the earlier the onset, the more likely it is to be a period of SN without the warm nose present.....

 

As y'all say, it is probably nowcasting time

[KrummWx]

Snow returns on radar as far east as Boone NC and as far south as Russelville AL, Holly Springs MS....interesting

[Brick Tamland]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

12 minutes ago, KrummWx said:

Snow returns on radar as far east as Boone NC and as far south as Russelville AL, Holly Springs MS....interesting

As far northeast as Roanoke 

[SUNYGRAD]

RGEM is a tad too warm at 850 on 6z run according to SPC analysis in western third of NC. 

[sakau2007]

There's a decent glaze of ice across quite a few counties across northern AL. Seems a little colder than expected in places like Little Rock, Memphis, Tupelo, and NW AL so far.

I mean, hell, there are areas around Little Rock below 10 degrees. If precip type changes to Frz Rn with it that cold at the surface, that would be wild.

[SUNYGRAD]

[Brick Tamland]

Current HRRR run doesn't really have precip in NC until 8 hours from now.

[DTP]

4 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

RGEM is a tad too warm at 850 on 6z run according to SPC analysis in western third of NC. 

Getting snow the last few years outside of the mtns in NC/SC has been more like a space shuttle launch- every variable has to be perfect it seems like....sleet bomb it is

[DTP]

1 minute ago, DTP said:

Getting snow the last few years outside of the mtns in NC/SC has been more like a space shuttle launch- every variable has to be perfect it seems like....sleet bomb it is

The 850 temp gradient over VA is insane from S to N

[SUNYGRAD]

Surface temps are too cold at GSO on HRRR and some others according 12Z sounding at GSO. About 5-degree difference on HRRR and 4 versus NAM 3K.  

[sakau2007]

1 minute ago, SUNYGRAD said:

Surface temps are too cold at GSO on HRRR and some others according 12Z sounding at GSO. About 5-degree difference on HRRR and 4 versus NAM 3K.  

interesting, because it seems like it's actually a few degrees colder than forecasted across Arkansas/northern MS/western TN so far.

[DTP]

2 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

Surface temps are too cold at GSO on HRRR and some others according 12Z sounding at GSO. About 5-degree difference on HRRR and 4 versus NAM 3K.  

Guess that could be one of two things:

1. Cold arriving slightly later than modeled

2. Depth of the cold in the wedge not as strong as originally modeled 

 

Judging by the 850 gradient in VA and obs from Dallas area last night (cold air took longer than expected to move south), my guess would be number 1

[ADB83]

This freezing rain squall line that has become kind of model consensus is really weird looking, if it verifies, it will be high rates at least which is actually better with ice than just the drizzle

[SUNYGRAD]

2 minutes ago, DTP said:

Guess that could be one of two things:

1. Cold arriving slightly later than modeled

2. Depth of the cold in the wedge not as strong as originally modeled 

 

Judging by the 850 gradient in VA and obs from Dallas area last night (cold air took longer than expected to move south), my guess would be number 1

I agree with 1-

[SUNYGRAD]

...still strong CAD signal representation this hour.

[Brick Tamland]

RAP looks colder than the HRRR with some snow and sleet in northern NC.

[gman]

Chris Justus with WYFF is live now on YouTube. Sorry, the is from last night. I will keep it posted anyway in case you want to subscribe to his YouTube channel. 

 

[DTP]

Just now, SUNYGRAD said:

I agree with 1-

Wedges are the really the only setup in the CLT area where you will commonly observe falling temps during the daytime....even with a strong arctic front from the NW, downsloping normally keeps this from occurring until the sun sets at KCLT

[gwlee7]

Good morning again from DFW!

Overnight not much has happened.  There is little ice and a dusting of sleet.   It’s 23* at the airport right now and the freezing rain/ice accrual concerns for here seem to be lessening.   NWS is calling for sleet/snow mix to continue for at least another 24 hours.  
There are reports of heavy sleet in the area   

Hope you guys can dodge the ice.  Stay safe everyone!

[Brick Tamland]

Really hope the HRRR is wrong. That's way too much freezing rain.

 

[27596WXNUT]

37 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Virga.  Literally under one of the heavier returns on the radar …. Scratch that just started snowing.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, 27596WXNUT said:

Virga.  Literally under one of the heavier returns on the radar heading home from Skiing at Winterplace. Nothing reaching the ground currently 

You may want to check the mountains thread. We including myself are seeing snow right now.

[gwlee7]

One more quick statement and then I will just lurk again until something changes here,

One of the guys I trust most on our sub forum is confident that the upper level temps are also dropping fast enough that there will actually be more snow than previously expected here.   
 

I hope it verifies and pushes east for you all.   

[SUNYGRAD]

Beech Mountain Resort Cam - Resort Cams

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, 27596WXNUT said:

Virga.  Literally under one of the heavier returns on the radar …. Scratch that just started snowing.

Glad it's falling for ya.