DTP Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, AppalachianWedge said: I thought they were saying late afternoon/evening. This map is 8pm... Correct? Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk Lol- I think "were" is the key word here Who knows with this storm? The ST models started throwing out more plausible solutions around 18z yesterday, but this is well in advance of anything the models were throwing out over the last 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppalachianWedge Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Lol- I think "were" is the key word here Who knows with this storm? The ST models started throwing out more plausible solutions around 18z yesterday, but this is well in advance of anything the models were throwing out over the last 24 hrsVery true statement. This storm could go down historically in terms of severity and in terms of forecasting.Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 WSPA is saying about the same as WYFF. The models are trending downward on the precipitation. WSPA is now at 0.36” of accumulated ice. They must see something on the lastest models to be in agreement. I love the NWS, but with this storm, they seem to be late on their discussion changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, AppalachianWedge said: I thought they were saying late afternoon/evening. This map is 8pm... Correct? Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk Models had been showing later for the heavy moisture to arrive. That dinnertime start time was likely based on light precip possibilities and also accounts for trying to get people off the road in case it starts early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Models had been showing later for the heavy moisture to arrive. That dinnertime start time was likely based on light precip possibilities and also accounts for trying to get people off the road in case it starts early Several runs were spitting out a finger of earlier front-running precip until yesterday over W NC- the earlier the onset, the more likely it is to be a period of SN without the warm nose present..... As y'all say, it is probably nowcasting time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KrummWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Snow returns on radar as far east as Boone NC and as far south as Russelville AL, Holly Springs MS....interesting 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, KrummWx said: Snow returns on radar as far east as Boone NC and as far south as Russelville AL, Holly Springs MS....interesting As far northeast as Roanoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 RGEM is a tad too warm at 850 on 6z run according to SPC analysis in western third of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sakau2007 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 There's a decent glaze of ice across quite a few counties across northern AL. Seems a little colder than expected in places like Little Rock, Memphis, Tupelo, and NW AL so far. I mean, hell, there are areas around Little Rock below 10 degrees. If precip type changes to Frz Rn with it that cold at the surface, that would be wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Current HRRR run doesn't really have precip in NC until 8 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said: RGEM is a tad too warm at 850 on 6z run according to SPC analysis in western third of NC. Getting snow the last few years outside of the mtns in NC/SC has been more like a space shuttle launch- every variable has to be perfect it seems like....sleet bomb it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, DTP said: Getting snow the last few years outside of the mtns in NC/SC has been more like a space shuttle launch- every variable has to be perfect it seems like....sleet bomb it is The 850 temp gradient over VA is insane from S to N 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Surface temps are too cold at GSO on HRRR and some others according 12Z sounding at GSO. About 5-degree difference on HRRR and 4 versus NAM 3K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sakau2007 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, SUNYGRAD said: Surface temps are too cold at GSO on HRRR and some others according 12Z sounding at GSO. About 5-degree difference on HRRR and 4 versus NAM 3K. interesting, because it seems like it's actually a few degrees colder than forecasted across Arkansas/northern MS/western TN so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said: Surface temps are too cold at GSO on HRRR and some others according 12Z sounding at GSO. About 5-degree difference on HRRR and 4 versus NAM 3K. Guess that could be one of two things: 1. Cold arriving slightly later than modeled 2. Depth of the cold in the wedge not as strong as originally modeled Judging by the 850 gradient in VA and obs from Dallas area last night (cold air took longer than expected to move south), my guess would be number 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This freezing rain squall line that has become kind of model consensus is really weird looking, if it verifies, it will be high rates at least which is actually better with ice than just the drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, DTP said: Guess that could be one of two things: 1. Cold arriving slightly later than modeled 2. Depth of the cold in the wedge not as strong as originally modeled Judging by the 850 gradient in VA and obs from Dallas area last night (cold air took longer than expected to move south), my guess would be number 1 I agree with 1- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 ...still strong CAD signal representation this hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 RAP looks colder than the HRRR with some snow and sleet in northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Chris Justus with WYFF is live now on YouTube. Sorry, the is from last night. I will keep it posted anyway in case you want to subscribe to his YouTube channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, SUNYGRAD said: I agree with 1- Wedges are the really the only setup in the CLT area where you will commonly observe falling temps during the daytime....even with a strong arctic front from the NW, downsloping normally keeps this from occurring until the sun sets at KCLT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Good morning again from DFW! Overnight not much has happened. There is little ice and a dusting of sleet. It’s 23* at the airport right now and the freezing rain/ice accrual concerns for here seem to be lessening. NWS is calling for sleet/snow mix to continue for at least another 24 hours. There are reports of heavy sleet in the area Hope you guys can dodge the ice. Stay safe everyone! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Really hope the HRRR is wrong. That's way too much freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 37 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Virga. Literally under one of the heavier returns on the radar …. Scratch that just started snowing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, 27596WXNUT said: Virga. Literally under one of the heavier returns on the radar heading home from Skiing at Winterplace. Nothing reaching the ground currently You may want to check the mountains thread. We including myself are seeing snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 One more quick statement and then I will just lurk again until something changes here, One of the guys I trust most on our sub forum is confident that the upper level temps are also dropping fast enough that there will actually be more snow than previously expected here. I hope it verifies and pushes east for you all. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Beech Mountain Resort Cam - Resort Cams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, 27596WXNUT said: Virga. Literally under one of the heavier returns on the radar …. Scratch that just started snowing. Glad it's falling for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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