January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[LakeNormanStormin]

Just now, kvegas-wx said:

The post mortem on this needs to be heavily discussed.  We cannot fall for this again.  Epic model failures for it to be 72-96 hours out.   

Truth.

Why were the outcomes so distant?

On a side note, the weekend here opens up completely lol. Tail trail lol

[gopack42]

Will there be any YouTube weather channels left after this?  

[LakeNormanStormin]

2 minutes ago, gopack42 said:

Will there be any YouTube weather channels left after this?  

They will be highly scrutinized 

[Supercane]

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

The post mortem on this needs to be heavily discussed.  We cannot fall for this again.  Epic model failures for it to be 72-96 hours out.   

In the past several days, we've been hearing this is more likely to shift south than north due to the strength of the modeled high pressure. But something I've had in the back of my mind is: what if the high pressure itself was being overdone? Seeing how this is, in fact, trending north, I'd be wary about using a modeled weather system as evidence for how another future weather system will behave.

[LakeNormanStormin]

HOF of Fails

Prove me wrong on the 6z Weather Gods

[WiseWeather]

So we are just going to sit here and believe that low just plows up the appalachians???


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[KrummWx]

Can someone just post maps instead of all this cliff diving??

[LakeNormanStormin]

At least the groceries I bought were all things I needed anyways

[BornAgain13]

If this holds, this will go down as an epic model failure. Just unreal stuff here. Its done went so far north that northern VA is mixing. 

[WNC_Fort]

1 minute ago, WiseWeather said:

So we are just going to sit here and believe that low just plows up the appalachians???


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That’s what I don’t understand. This whole time everyone (and I mean trusted Mets on this forum and across the region) talked about the high pressure and the inability of a system to cut into it. What happened there? 

[LakeNormanStormin]

Just now, KrummWx said:

Can someone just post maps instead of all this cliff diving??

Hardcore cliff diving given trends.

And I don't have the capacity to do that.

tropicaltidbits.com is the go to for free model stuff

[LakeNormanStormin]

1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said:

That’s what I don’t understand. This whole time everyone (and I mean trusted Mets on this forum and across the region) talked about the high pressure and the inability of a system to cut into it. What happened there? 

Models are fallible.

And the high will come in much weaker than advertised at go time 

[HWY316wx]

Wow.  Just wow.  

 

[kvegas-wx]

Just now, WNC_Fort said:

That’s what I don’t understand. This whole time everyone (and I mean trusted Mets on this forum and across the region) talked about the high pressure and the inability of a system to cut into it. What happened there? 

Oddly enough I had a discussion with a relative in Toledo this afternoon and they said their local met called BS on the southern storm specifically because the HP was weakening and not in the ideal position (retrograding?).  Way above my paygrade of amateur weather, but seems to make sense if the models are forecasting a less significant CAD event with a much deeper warm nose.  We may have just needed to wait until the ducks were all on the pond to see it.  

[Thrasher Fan]

The run to run consistency on the 0z EURO 114h is like throwing darts at a dart board blindfolded. Pull your hair out insanity.

 

More fun tomorrow.

[LakeNormanStormin]

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

Oddly enough I had a discussion with a relative in Toledo this afternoon and they said their local met called BS on the southern storm specifically because the HP was weakening and not in the ideal position (retrograding?).  Way above my paygrade of amateur weather, but seems to make sense if the models are forecasting a less significant CAD event with a much deeper warm nose.  We may have just needed to wait until the ducks were all on the pond to see it.  

Exactly.

Trends become friends. Love them or hate them.

I'm still in a bad space on that EURO. Enough freezing rain to f stuff up around here.

[HWY316wx]

SC. NC and VA guys

[Silver Meteor]

15 minutes ago, gopack42 said:

Will there be any YouTube weather channels left after this?  

I used to enjoy YouTube weather channels until they became click bait central. Now they are insufferable, I avoid. 

[SnowDawg]

I just don't see how this one could come back at this point. It's not just one thing, but every single thing we need to trend our way going bad. Crazy model failure. Not just people falling for wild OP runs either. The ensembles were rock solid for a couple days. 

[LakeNormanStormin]

Just now, SnowDawg said:

I just don't see how this one could come back at this point. It's not just one thing, but every single thing we need to trend our way going bad. Crazy model failure. Not just people falling for wild OP runs either. The ensembles were rock solid for a couple days. 

Honestly, it questions the whole process. Is it a climate-related issue? Or a quirk in the algorithm? That's what I want to know.

[BornAgain13]

If this trend holds, I will never trust guidance again until we are within 48 hrs of the event. I just cant believe what im seeing. Small wobbles back and forth were to be expected but this is insane. 

[WNC_Fort]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

If this trend holds, I will never trust guidance again until we are within 48 hrs of the event. I just cant believe what im seeing. Small wobbles back and forth were to be expected but this is insane. 

Yea, 50-75 mile shifts sure. But this is hundreds of miles. A couple days out. Atlanta is now gonna be in the 60s on Sunday? 

[Silver Meteor]

20 minutes ago, Supercane said:

In the past several days, we've been hearing this is more likely to shift south than north due to the strength of the modeled high pressure. But something I've had in the back of my mind is: what if the high pressure itself was being overdone? Seeing how this is, in fact, trending north, I'd be wary about using a modeled weather system as evidence for how another future weather system will behave.

Small changes upstream may lead to bigger changes downstream. If they accrue over time one ends up with huge fails. Such is the world we live in. Seeing my Eastern N.C. digital snow go up in flames is so routine it's sickening. 

[JoshM]

If it ends up a failure, we really need a case study on what happened. I’ve never had a system like this leave such a bad taste in my mouth. 

[BornAgain13]

4 minutes ago, JoshM said:

If it ends up a failure, we really need a case study on what happened. I’ve never had a system like this leave such a bad taste in my mouth. 

Yeah I honestly hate to sound like this but im sick... this is awful for the forum. 

[Silver Meteor]

Hey folks, there's always the Feb 2 storm. What could go wrong? 

 

[JoshM]

1 minute ago, Silver Meteor said:

Hey folks, there's always the Feb 2 storm. What could go wrong? 

 

[WNC_Fort]

3 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Hey folks, there's always the Feb 2 storm. What could go wrong? 

 

Yea. There’s always a storm that somehow misses the upstate and wnc foothills. 4 years running.

[SnowDawg]

Cant wait to be posting clown maps for that one this time next week only for it to end up shifting to Miami 3 days out. It can snow to the north or the south, but never the interior southeast anymore. Prove me wrong atmosphere.

[WiseWeather]

Yeah I honestly hate to sound like this but im sick... this is awful for the forum. 

Im done for a while after this. If this doesn’t pan out this is the worst breakdown I’ve ever experienced in the weather world. I could understand this if it was 8 plus days out but this is within the window where we are supposed to be nailing this down and it shits on us.


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