wncsnow Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago HRRR much healthier this run compared to last 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago Myself and I assume others also have been dug into models runs since the sunday before last. This has been an epic time frame for tracking. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I can’t believe we’re 31 pages deep in January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Eff the NAM. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Eff the NAM. That is all. It tries so hard though Bless its heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: It tries so hard though Bless its heart MBY doesn't even get an inch on the 12K lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, wncsnow said: MBY doesn't even get an inch on the 12K lol It took the low away from the Bahamas and didn’t know what to do after that. It doesn’t even agree with its own kinfolk bless it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago It doesn’t hammer as hard this run but I’d take my chances with the footprint it shows. Much more expansive, cohesive coverage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: It doesn’t hammer as hard this run but I’d take my chances with the footprint it shows. Much more expansive, cohesive coverage. As long as the 12k is wrong we are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Gonna be honest, I really doubt some of these models on the slp placement. Seems more logical that it’ll be on the edge of the gulf stream closer to the coast, which would enhance us as well with the easterly fetch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, wncsnow said: As long as the 12k is wrong we are fine. Gotta ignore the 12k. Feedback issues painfully evident in the surface output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago You can see the SLP enhancement as the band pivots back west before scooting out on the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: You can see the SLP enhancement as the band pivots back west before scooting out on the 3k Still less in western areas than 12Z probably just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, wncsnow said: Still less in western areas than 12Z probably just noise It’s out to lunch on ratios. Gives me 3” at 10:1 but 4.7” on the kuchera. Easily 6” at 20:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Don't see @WNC_Fort see this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Sounds like panic mode time. 24 hours out. Dusting incoming if we’re lucky! Foothill crew continues to suffer! sorry had to get it all out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said: Sounds like panic mode time. 24 hours out. Dusting incoming if we’re lucky! Foothill crew continues to suffer! sorry had to get it all out The RRFS has our minima too. Maybe I should listen to Foothills Weather Network Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: The RRFS has our minima too. Maybe I should listen to Foothills Weather Network I will say. The NAM and GRAF concern me because the precip flow seems much more North to South. I’d prefer a east to west flow for us to get any sort of good accumulation. Idk. You guys know I’ve always been iffy on this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said: I will say. The NAM and GRAF concern me because the precip flow seems much more North to South. I’d prefer a east to west flow for us to get any sort of good accumulation. Idk. You guys know I’ve always been iffy on this system We cant have the ULL track as far north as the NAM and RFFS show or we will get downsloped plain and simple. Luckily the Euro, GFS (somewhat) and AI models have it going in a better spot for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NWS still seems pretty bullish here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NWS still seems pretty bullish here.They actually raised our high end amounts to 12…. And they are forecasting 7.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, WiseWeather said: They actually raised our high end amounts to 12…. And they are forecasting 7. . Yep, good to see. They are one of the best offices out there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago They’ll know local enhancement factors the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago Seeing more models key in on the leeside screw zone. Don't like it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: We cant have the ULL track as far north as the NAM and RFFS show or we will get downsloped plain and simple. Luckily the Euro, GFS (somewhat) and AI models have it going in a better spot for us. The good thing with that is that's not necessarily something the CAMs should have a good handle on at this range I don't think. Probably should lean on the globals until they lock in on a synoptic scale setup, and then use the mesoscale models for localized features once things are settled up top. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted 42 minutes ago Share Posted 42 minutes ago 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Still less in western areas than 12Z probably just noise Like I always say with these type systems - "bet the under" on all of these accumulation maps you see flying around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago Yall aren’t seeing a lee side minimum. We have upslope flow and a strong easterly fetch off a meso low. You’re seeing models show subsidence from intense banding on the edge of the foothills and piedmont. You can’t expect models to accurately resolve that or lee side enhancement at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted 8 minutes ago Share Posted 8 minutes ago Models still all over the place. I’m going with 3-4 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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