2026 Foothills thread

[wncsnow]

HRRR much healthier this run compared to last

[strongwxnc]

Myself and I assume others also have been dug into models runs since the sunday before last. This has been an epic time frame for tracking. 

[BooneWX]

I can’t believe we’re 31 pages deep in January 

[wncsnow]

Eff the NAM. That is all. 

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Eff the NAM. That is all. 

It tries so hard though  Bless its heart 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It tries so hard though  Bless its heart 

MBY doesn't even get an inch on the 12K lol

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, wncsnow said:

MBY doesn't even get an inch on the 12K lol

It took the low away from the Bahamas and didn’t know what to do after that. It doesn’t even agree with its own kinfolk bless it

[BooneWX]

It doesn’t hammer as hard this run but I’d take my chances with the footprint it shows. Much more expansive, cohesive coverage.

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

It doesn’t hammer as hard this run but I’d take my chances with the footprint it shows. Much more expansive, cohesive coverage.

As long as the 12k is wrong we are fine. 

[BooneWX]

Gonna be honest, I really doubt some of these models on the slp placement. Seems more logical that it’ll be on the edge of the gulf stream closer to the coast, which would enhance us as well with the easterly fetch.

[BooneWX]

Just now, wncsnow said:

As long as the 12k is wrong we are fine. 

Gotta ignore the 12k. Feedback issues painfully evident in the surface output. 

[BooneWX]

You can see the SLP enhancement as the band pivots back west before scooting out on the 3k

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

You can see the SLP enhancement as the band pivots back west before scooting out on the 3k

Still less in western areas than 12Z probably just noise

[BooneWX]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Still less in western areas than 12Z probably just noise

It’s out to lunch on ratios. Gives me 3” at 10:1 but 4.7” on the kuchera. Easily 6” at 20:1.

[wncsnow]

Don't see @WNC_Fort see this 

[WNC_Fort]

Sounds like panic mode time. 24 hours out. Dusting incoming if we’re lucky! Foothill crew continues to suffer! 
 

sorry had to get it all out

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Sounds like panic mode time. 24 hours out. Dusting incoming if we’re lucky! Foothill crew continues to suffer! 
 

sorry had to get it all out

The RRFS has our minima too. Maybe I should listen to Foothills Weather Network

[WNC_Fort]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

The RRFS has our minima too. Maybe I should listen to Foothills Weather Network

I will say. The NAM and GRAF concern me because the precip flow seems much more North to South. I’d prefer a east to west flow for us to get any sort of good accumulation. Idk. You guys know I’ve always been iffy on this system

[wncsnow]

4 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

I will say. The NAM and GRAF concern me because the precip flow seems much more North to South. I’d prefer a east to west flow for us to get any sort of good accumulation. Idk. You guys know I’ve always been iffy on this system

We cant have the ULL track as far north as the NAM and RFFS show or we will get downsloped plain and simple. Luckily the Euro, GFS (somewhat) and AI models have it going in a better spot for us. 

[WiseWeather]

NWS still seems pretty bullish here


.

[WiseWeather]

NWS still seems pretty bullish here


.

They actually raised our high end amounts to 12…. And they are forecasting 7.


.

[wncsnow]

Just now, WiseWeather said:

They actually raised our high end amounts to 12…. And they are forecasting 7.


.

Yep, good to see. They are one of the best offices out there 

[BooneWX]

They’ll know local enhancement factors the best 

[wncsnow]

Seeing more models key in on the leeside screw zone. Don't like it...

[SnowDawg]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

We cant have the ULL track as far north as the NAM and RFFS show or we will get downsloped plain and simple. Luckily the Euro, GFS (somewhat) and AI models have it going in a better spot for us. 

The good thing with that is that's not necessarily something the CAMs should have a good handle on at this range I don't think. Probably should lean on the globals until they lock in on a synoptic scale setup, and then use the mesoscale models for localized features once things are settled up top.