Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[NorthHillsWx]

On 10/26/2026 at 8:10 AM, eyewall said:

Falls Lake is 245.76 Feet so we are about 2-3 days from reaching the summer low. 

Ensembles look pretty wet starting next week. Globals habe been bouncing around but starting to settle in on idea of multiple systems

[olafminesaw]

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Ensembles look pretty wet starting next week. Globals habe been bouncing around but starting to settle in on idea of multiple systems

Fingers crossed!

[Upstate Tiger]

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Ensembles look pretty wet starting next week. Globals habe been bouncing around but starting to settle in on idea of multiple systems

Yep and the 70's that are showing up across much of the lower 48 this week get more and more compressed next week and completely disappear except for Florida and parts of the SW by the second week of November.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

First Freeze?

 

[NorthHillsWx]

The late weekend/early week rain has backed off to basically nothing but the second system looks robust 

[olafminesaw]

Things to get used to this winter :

[NorthHillsWx]

This weeks drought monitor showed significant worsening of the drought in central and eastern NC. I can say looking at lake and pond levels it is as dry as it got during the summer, though with the time of year impacts are less. The creek through my farm has been reduced to a trickle and several ponds are almost dry. We need rain badly and big rain

[NorthHillsWx]

Next week's system may need to be watched for a severe threat. Very dynamic system developing over the plains it seems. We will be firmly in the warm sector 

[eyewall]

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This weeks drought monitor showed significant worsening of the drought in central and eastern NC. I can say looking at lake and pond levels it is as dry as it got during the summer, though with the time of year impacts are less. The creek through my farm has been reduced to a trickle and several ponds are almost dry. We need rain badly and big rain

Yep the double dip of Falls Lake is just about complete, meaning it is about to match the summer low within the next day or so. 

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

22 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Next week's system may need to be watched for a severe threat. Very dynamic system developing over the plains it seems. We will be firmly in the warm sector 

Hopefully this one does not vaporize as well. 

[eyewall]

This is not going to get the job done:

Cluster analysis of the leading two solutions from the earlier 12z
guidance is lining up with the trend within 18z ensemble guidance
favoring a northeast lift of low pressure system from the
Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes region. If this trend
continues and remains void the splitting mid/upper-lvl low scenario,
forcing for ascent for meaningful precipitation may be extremely
limited over the Carolinas. These solutions still do produce light
rain totals over the Mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas, but
reasonable high-end amounts struggle to exceed 0.5" in 24 hours for
the northern/eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain where moderate to
extreme drought persists.