Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

I hope I'm wrong but if it doesn't frost some this weekend, it looks like Halloween or early November for frost for most of NC. 

Hot and dry winter.

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Hot and dry winter.

That would be a shocker but you never know around these parts. The next 2 weeks are a welcome drying out if El Nino really kicks up the STJ. Average first frost used to be between October 1-15 r here until about 2000. Since then its closer to October 24. 

[Met1985]

35 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That would be a shocker but you never know around these parts. The next 2 weeks are a welcome drying out if El Nino really kicks up the STJ. Average first frost used to be between October 1-15 r here until about 2000. Since then its closer to October 24. 

Extreme record breaking El Nino. Everything is on the table. There just may be too much hot air from the ocean that floods the continent except for the northern part of the country.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Extreme record breaking El Nino. Everything is on the table. There just may be too much hot air from the ocean that floods the continent except for the northern part of the country.

Extreme hot air over the ocean supercharges evaporation leading to cloud cover and moisture downstream. Both of those would = wet and cooler weather for the south. I just  don’t see an extreme EN leading to hot and dry conditions. 

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Extreme hot air over the ocean supercharges evaporation leading to cloud cover and moisture downstream. Both of those would = wet and cooler weather for the south. I just  don’t see an extreme EN leading to hot and dry conditions. 

I really hope your right buddy.  

[olafminesaw]

Dry as a bone the next couple of weeks

[Tyler Penland]

6 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Extreme record breaking El Nino. Everything is on the table. There just may be too much hot air from the ocean that floods the continent except for the northern part of the country.

I'd say hot (mild) and wet. 

Boone is 50/50 on good snow or terrible snow in Super Ninos. 82/83 and 15/16 were both solid, but 97/98 and 23/24 both saw 2.5 and 2.7" season total respectively. I'll be surprised if we see any consistent cool weather until late December or January, at any rate. 3 of the 4 Super Ninos have been above average December including the record setting 2015.

At the end of the day, though, 4 winters isn't a very big sample size and with this Nino being so ridiculously strong you can pretty much toss all the analogs anyways. I'm putting my money on Pacific air flooding the southern half of the country but that's just me. Better chance for widespread severe outbreaks than widespread snow.

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:

I'd say hot (mild) and wet. 

Boone is 50/50 on good snow or terrible snow in Super Ninos. 82/83 and 15/16 were both solid, but 97/98 and 23/24 both saw 2.5 and 2.7" season total respectively. I'll be surprised if we see any consistent cool weather until late December or January, at any rate. 3 of the 4 Super Ninos have been above average December including the record setting 2015.

At the end of the day, though, 4 winters isn't a very big sample size and with this Nino being so ridiculously strong you can pretty much toss all the analogs anyways. I'm putting my money on Pacific air flooding the southern half of the country but that's just me. Better chance for widespread severe outbreaks than widespread snow.

Yeah you are right. It's a small sample size.  I was kind of being hyperbole to a point really but this is uncharted territory and we are seeing an early season weakening of the PV already.  Ig the NAO and AO fire then we are in business.