January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

when we're talking about 21 hour storms as "slow" then you know we have potential

 

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

mod to heavy snow at 150...seems like a quick hitter?

Was wrong..it's like 20 hours.  Not sure what I was smoking when I typed that

[bncho]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Cold powder snow on the weekend with plenty of wiggle room. Where do I sign?

Exactly! Just based off those panels it might be 8" for DC, 6" for Baltimore, and boy would I be satisfied with that.

[wxmeddler]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks like 18z
Those graphics man. You still have a Commodore 64?

I prefer DIFAX Maps personally

[Ji]

Disappointing run but hopefully it can meet Ai in the middle

[stormtracker]

We'd all take the Euro at this point.  Good to have the AIs still doing their thing.  Good place to be so far

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

Disappointing run but hopefully it can meet Ai in the middle

Dude, really?  I know you like to troll, but be for real

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

We'd all take the Euro at this point.  Good to have the AIs still doing their thing.  Good place to be so far

And besides this was still better than 12z, no?

[bncho]

Yeah, based off precip maps DC gets ~8", Baltimore ~6". SE VA is jack zone with 12+". Would take instantly.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Exactly! Just based off those panels it might be 8" for DC, 6" for Baltimore, and boy would I be satisfied with that.

Those panels imply 6" - 10" of snow regionwide. Would be a warning level event for almost the entire LWX CWA.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And besides this was still better than 12z, no?

Better

[bncho]

Thanks for the PBP, Randy! 

[Steve25]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Yeah, based off precip maps DC gets ~8", Baltimore ~6". SE VA is jack zone with 12+". Would take instantly.

Rock and roll! Not a bad night for the 0z suite at all. Lots still on the table! 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Those panels imply 6" - 10" of snow regionwide. Would be a warning level event for almost the entire LWX CWA.

It's also snowing in the teens. Wow.

[Ji]

Dude, really?  I know you like to troll, but be for real

I’m going by your description. Quick hitter and better for south

Common dude I know you wanted euro to shoe you 12

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

It's also snowing in the teens. Wow.

Yes. It's really encouraging to have the Euro EPS, Euro, and Euro-AI on our side. Even the Canadian, and UKMET are trying for something. There's clearly a signal for a storm and we're now inside HR 150 for most of the event.

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Rock and roll! Not a bad night for the 0z suite at all. Lots still on the table! 

0z Suite Scoreboard

>4" vs <4" scoreboard (Euro = 5, Euro AI = 5, GFS AI = 4, GFS = 3, CMC = 2, UKMET = 1, ICON = 1)
DC: 11 - 10, more than 4" wins
Baltimore: 14 - 7, more than 4" wins

Stay tuned for 12z! Good night!
 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I’m going by your description. Quick hitter and better for south

Common dude I know you wanted euro to shoe you 12

We all want it to show a foot for us...but when you're homeless and somebody offers you a 2 br apartment and not a mansion,  you don't fucking complain.

[bncho]

So I may have underestimated the Euro, we actually DO get a foot. Ji is happy now.

[Ji]

So I may have underestimated the Euro, we actually DO get a foot. Ji is happy now.

Ratios baby

[Steve25]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

So I may have underestimated the Euro, we actually DO get a foot.

That is kuchera though. Not to say the rates couldn’t be a little higher than 10:1 but like Bob said earlier, it’s pretty rare. 

[Ji]

We all want it to show a foot for us...but when you're homeless and somebody offers you a 2 br apartment and not a mansion,  you don't fucking complain.

lol
Sorry next time I’ll wait for my models to come out

Next time tell us it’s a freaking foot lol

[bncho]

Just now, Steve25 said:

That is kuchera though. Not to say the rates couldn’t be a little higher than 10:1 but like Bob said earlier, it’s pretty rare. 

20:1 ratios baby 

[DDweatherman]

I love where we are at this juncture. The cold is almost always slightly over modeled at range. The only true way we get completely burned in this is congrats Carolina’s. I’d take a low that travels up to WV knowing with this antecedent airmass and wedge we’d lay down 6-12” in thumping fashion over to some high impact sleet/zr if that’s what it came to. Let’s reel this one in. 

[Eskimo Joe]

00z Euro is about 18 hours of light to moderate snow with no temp issues, and on a weekend. It's just beautiful.

[AlexD1990]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

So I may have underestimated the Euro, we actually DO get a foot. Ji is happy now.

That panel is a thing of beauty from my perspective. Just wow 

[Eskimo Joe]

You know it's going to trend north at some point. We're really sitting good here.

[bncho]

Guys, if it snows, it's going to stick around and become glacier for at the very LEAST a week. Models are literally projecting high temps barely getting into the 20s after Jan 25

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Guys, if it snows, it's going to stick around and become glacier for at the very LEAST a week. Models are literally projecting high temps barely getting into the 20s after Jan 25

Fresh arctic air on a fresh, deep snowpack will let those temps bust low. 

[bncho]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

20:1 ratios baby 

btw the 20:1 ratios are real according to mark mcgarbage

[jrodd321]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

So I may have underestimated the Euro, we actually DO get a foot. Ji is happy now.

Can you post the 18z snowmap for comparison?