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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Cold powder snow on the weekend with plenty of wiggle room. Where do I sign?

Exactly! Just based off those panels it might be 8" for DC, 6" for Baltimore, and boy would I be satisfied with that.

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1 minute ago, bncho said:

Exactly! Just based off those panels it might be 8" for DC, 6" for Baltimore, and boy would I be satisfied with that.

Those panels imply 6" - 10" of snow regionwide. Would be a warning level event for almost the entire LWX CWA.

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1 minute ago, bncho said:

Yeah, based off precip maps DC gets ~8", Baltimore ~6". SE VA is jack zone with 12+". Would take instantly.

Rock and roll! Not a bad night for the 0z suite at all. Lots still on the table! 

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1 minute ago, bncho said:

It's also snowing in the teens. Wow.

Yes. It's really encouraging to have the Euro EPS, Euro, and Euro-AI on our side. Even the Canadian, and UKMET are trying for something. There's clearly a signal for a storm and we're now inside HR 150 for most of the event.

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4 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Rock and roll! Not a bad night for the 0z suite at all. Lots still on the table! 

0z Suite Scoreboard

>4" vs <4" scoreboard (Euro = 5, Euro AI = 5, GFS AI = 4, GFS = 3, CMC = 2, UKMET = 1, ICON = 1)
DC: 11 - 10, more than 4" wins
Baltimore: 14 - 7, more than 4" wins

Stay tuned for 12z! Good night!
 

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1 minute ago, bncho said:

So I may have underestimated the Euro, we actually DO get a foot.

Screenshot 2026-01-19 at 12.55.32 AM.png

That is kuchera though. Not to say the rates couldn’t be a little higher than 10:1 but like Bob said earlier, it’s pretty rare. 

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We all want it to show a foot for us...but when you're homeless and somebody offers you a 2 br apartment and not a mansion,  you don't fucking complain.

lol
Sorry next time I’ll wait for my models to come out

Next time tell us it’s a freaking foot lol
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I love where we are at this juncture. The cold is almost always slightly over modeled at range. The only true way we get completely burned in this is congrats Carolina’s. I’d take a low that travels up to WV knowing with this antecedent airmass and wedge we’d lay down 6-12” in thumping fashion over to some high impact sleet/zr if that’s what it came to. Let’s reel this one in. 

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1 minute ago, bncho said:

Guys, if it snows, it's going to stick around and become glacier for at the very LEAST a week. Models are literally projecting high temps barely getting into the 20s after Jan 25

Fresh arctic air on a fresh, deep snowpack will let those temps bust low. 

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