January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Never drops that far south vs prior runs.

WB 18Z GFS.... yes it did, and it may even have a more neutral tilt by Th. Am but too little too late  for us this run.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i think its time to punt this storm. Too many things going against it including the following the cape storm. Lets hope storm A is a pos and leaves room for the cape storm to dominate

We've punted more times this season than the Ravens did in any game this year. Quite the honor..

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS.... yes it did, and it may even have a more neutral tilt by Th. Am but too little too late  for us this run.

Upper northeast gets smoked this run. 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, based on the GFS 8 days out, I think you should punt.

Why not punt the whole winter based on the end of the run?   See you next year man.  Be safe.

we not getting 2 back to back winter storms lol. This aint nino 1987....punt the first--hit on the 2nd...call it a winter

[stormtracker]

Ridging out west higher than me at a family function.  Kinda liking this look for cape frame.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

we not getting 2 back to back winter storms lol. This aint nino 1987....punt the first--hit on the 2nd...call it a winter

More likely to punt the first one and fumble the second one on the 1 yard line. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS.... yes it did, and it may even have a more neutral tilt by Th. Am but too little too late  for us this run.

I should have said dropped that far south as fast as it did prior runs. And it has also crept further east. I agree with Ji on this one. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Ji said:

we not getting 2 back to back winter storms lol. This aint nino 1987....punt the first--hit on the 2nd...call it a winter

 Dude first storm is still a week out , at least give it a few more days lol

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We've punted more times this season than the Ravens did in any game this year. Quite the honor..

what exactly have we punted? this is our first time this winter tracking a winter storm threat. No i dont count clippers

[stormtracker]

Plenty cold around, just waiting for something to ignite

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

we not getting 2 back to back winter storms lol. This aint nino 1987....punt the first--hit on the 2nd...call it a winter

Or do what we do best and shit the bed on both.

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ridging out west higher than me at a family function.  Kinda liking this look for cape frame.

Best pbp on the forum, hands down!

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

what exactly have we punted? this is our first time this winter tracking a winter storm threat. No i dont count clippers

Selective numbering will give different results all the time.

[Ralph Wiggum]

At least Hungary is getting their snowiest winter in decades. They deserve it.

[mitchnick]

Thicknesses are not as low on Gfs at 195hrs as they were at 12z.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Plenty cold around, just waiting for something to ignite

H5 looks more strung out kind like the cmc. Might be more like a cold front pass with a wave developing late. 

[mitchnick]

Trough is broader this run which should help with cutter threat.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Thicknesses are not as low on Gfs at 195hrs as they were at 12z.

It's snow.   Well for now...starting at 213...looks like a cold front type thing with a storm trying to form down south.  slow to get going

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

H5 looks more strung out kind like the cmc. Might be more like a cold front pass with a wave developing late. 

gmta

[mitchnick]

Snowing in Providence RI before Bwi.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Trough is broader this run which should help with cutter threat.

Cutter???

[stormtracker]

That;s exactly what it is.  weak low forms and riding up.  We get snow, but nothing huge still ongoing at 219

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

gmta

The what now?

[mitchnick]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Cutter???

Don't think so.

[stormtracker]

Its a modest hit.  SFC temps a lil above freezing tho

[stormtracker]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

The what now?

Great minds....

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

gmta

can we not have a high in Arkansas...

too bad the 2nd storm is probably the one...the first had way more potential. We suck at snow sports pretty much everything

[mitchnick]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

The what now?

Give me the apple I think.

[TSSN+]

It’s not the solution we want, but at least it’s something haha 

[stormtracker]

I like it actually.  Still going on the latest panel and temps dropping close to freezing.  Looks like a widespread 3 to 5