January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah there’s been some bombs for sure. Fast flow and not allowing for amplification only applies here.  

Been trying to say this for a long while. That’s all you need to see(bombs everywhere else ) to know that idea(Hadley cell and fast flow) is complete BS.   It’s just random bad ju ju…and that’s it. At some point it will change, like it did for us through the 2000’s and 2010’s, when pretty much 90% of all SW’s came together for us no matter what. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ongoing PNA- will eventually end, even if the 0z GEFS sustains it through its forecast period. Once that happens, recent historical experience (since 1980) suggests that the PNA will likely undergo a regime change to mainly positive values.

The same kind of regime change took place for all 10 25-day or longer streaks that began in November or December.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be a little enhancement SE MA and cape.

Before or after the ball drops?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Getting perilously close to the point at which I can just about guarantee an unprecedented 8th consecutive dud-winter for MBY.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Getting perilously close to the point at which I can just about guarantee an unprecedented 8th consecutive dud-winter for MBY.

I think you have a ways to go on that part imo…December 30th isn’t that time frame yet. At 1/30 you may be in trouble though…good thing that is still 4weeks away. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Well this is some good news. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Getting perilously close to the point at which I can just about guarantee an unprecedented 8th consecutive dud-winter for MBY.

Its December 30

Way too early for that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think you have a ways to go on that part imo…December 30th isn’t that time frame yet. At 1/30 you may be in trouble though…good thing that is still 4weeks away. 

You need to take a look at climo with single-digits snowfall into January....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like a very real shot of not much at all heading into like January 10th....I'm not a mathematician, but I have 8" now...carry the one, tie the noose.... then take a look at years with that kind of total headed into mid January and it's non-negotiable.

It's easy to bury your head in a pillow, click your heels together, and blindly state it's too early....until you actually look at the numbers, good forbid if you can bring yourself to be objective,

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You need to take a look at climo with single-digits snowfall into January....

I think you need to take it easy…and take a deep breath. Stick to your guns/your outlook, and let’s see how this unfolds? Long long way to go bro.  Something’s gonna pop, bet on it.  
 

 Not For one minute do I believe the modeling has the upper air pattern right for something 8-10 days out. So there will certainly be changes.  You know this. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I think you need to take it easy…and take a deep breath. Stick to your guns/your outlook, and let’s see how this unfolds? Long long way to go bro.  Something’s gonna pop, bet on it.  
 

 Not For one minute do I believe the modeling has the upper air pattern right for something 8-10 days out. So there will certainly be changes.  You know this. 

That is what it is...I don't change anything. But the numbers don't lie if it doesn't snow soon. Keep in mind I am speaking strictly about the seasonal total...this doesn't mean that there won't bee good storms at all from here on out and/or it will be warm. Not at all.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like a very real shot of not much at all heading into like January 10th....I'm not a mathematician, but I have 8" now...carry the one, tie the noose.... then take a look at years with that kind of total headed into mid January and it's non-negotiable.

Everything in meteorology is negotiable…because it’s the future, and because it’s not an exact science. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Everything in meteorology is negotiable…be she’s it’s the future, and because it’s not an exact science. 

That isn't meteorology, it simply climatology and arithmetic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is what it is...I don't change anything. But the numbers don't lie if it doesn't snow soon. Keep in mind I am speaking strictly about the seasonal total...this doesn't mean that there won't bee good storms at all from here on out and/or it will be warm. Not at all.

I think you are conflating what I am saying, JD.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That isn't meteorology, it simply climatology and arithmetic.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

This has that feeling of an old fashioned winter that we had growing up in the 70’s. The kind that started early in Nov/ early Dec and by the time you hit Morch you felt like it had been a year since you felt warmth . They used to be constantly cold like this . With no warmth in sight thru Jan.. it really has that vibe.  Hopefully the snow follows 

[weatherwiz]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Been trying to say this for a long while. That’s all you need to see(bombs everywhere else ) to know that idea(Hadley cell and fast flow) is complete BS.   It’s just random bad ju ju…and that’s it. At some point it will change, like it did for us through the 2000’s and 2010’s, when pretty much 90% of all SW’s came together for us no matter what. 

Actually that would be incorrect. Fast flow doesn't necessarily inhibit storms from bombing out nor does changes in the size and structure of the Hadley Cell. They just influence the jet stream differently and shift around regions which are favorable for deep cyclogenesis. A faster flow makes it more likely for storms to bomb out farther to our west versus towards the coast and then for storms to bomb out as they move just off the coast towards Atlantic Canada. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Actually that would be incorrect. Fast flow doesn't necessarily inhibit storms from bombing out nor does changes in the size and structure of the Hadley Cell. They just influence the jet stream differently and shift around regions which are favorable for deep cyclogenesis. A faster flow makes it more likely for storms to bomb out farther to our west versus towards the coast and then for storms to bomb out as they move just off the coast towards Atlantic Canada. 

I think it's still dependent on the trough axis, Paul.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's still dependent on the trough axis, Paul.

correct, and the faster (or slower) flows aloft play a significant role in where ridge/trough axes occur. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is what it is...I don't change anything. But the numbers don't lie if it doesn't snow soon. Keep in mind I am speaking strictly about the seasonal total...this doesn't mean that there won't bee good storms at all from here on out and/or it will be warm. Not at all.

Ok, I’m not saying your seasonal total ideas aren’t going to be wrong…but the weather obviously doesn’t care about totals and stats…so I guess my point is at some point things will snap the other way.  When that is, is anybody’s guess?  
 

But If D. Sutherland is on to something, that would certainly help some.  I just don’t see the angst on 12/30.  But I also just picked up close to 9” too…so sometimes that helps  the outlook too.  
 

I guess if you want to be upset, then go right ahead. I feel January will have some fun in store for us. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

correct, and the faster (or slower) flows aloft play a significant role in where ridge/trough axes occur. 

I don't see why a faster flow is more likely to place the trough axis unfavorably for the east coast relative to any other area of the globe.

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Actually that would be incorrect. Fast flow doesn't necessarily inhibit storms from bombing out nor does changes in the size and structure of the Hadley Cell. They just influence the jet stream differently and shift around regions which are favorable for deep cyclogenesis. A faster flow makes it more likely for storms to bomb out farther to our west versus towards the coast and then for storms to bomb out as they move just off the coast towards Atlantic Canada. 

Don’t talk to me, talk to Tip bro. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ok, I’m not saying your seasonal total ideas aren’t going to be wrong…but the weather obviously doesn’t care about totals and stats…so I guess my point is at some point things will snap the other way.  When that is, is anybody’s guess?  
 

But If D. Sutherland is on to something, that would certainly help some.  I just don’t see the angst on 12/30.  But I also just picked up close to 9” too…so sometimes that helps  the outlook too.  
 

I guess if you want to be upset, then go right ahead. I feel January will have some fun in store for us. 

Okay, sure...yes. I agree....slow start doesn't prohibit a good stretch, which I still expect, regardless. I am just referring to the ultimate seasonal total.

[Kitz Craver]

Nam looking good with the clipper, more coherent precip shield 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see why a faster flow is more likely to place the trough axis unfavorably for the east coast relative to any other area of the globe.

Yes, This! 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see why a faster flow is more likely to place the trough axis unfavorably for the east coast relative to any other area of the globe.

It's not like it's just applicable to our area though, the concept would apply to other areas of the globe too. For us it's just a product of where we reside regionally. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's not like it's just applicable to our area though, the concept would apply to other areas of the globe too. For us it's just a product of where we reside regionally. 

Explain to me like I am 5 years old why a fast flow makes favorable tracks for the midwest and Maritimes more likely than the east coast...the west warm pool, I understand....

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, sure...yes. I agree....slow start doesn't prohibit a good stretch, which I still expect, regardless. I am just referring to the ultimate seasonal total.

Ok bud…I see your point. It’s all good. I guess I was trying to lift your spirits some with that reasoning.   You know your stuff…hoping we can all have some fun as we are just starting to walk in the door of our climatological wheelhouse.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ok bud…I see your point. It’s all good. I guess I was trying to lift your spirits some with that reasoning.   You know your stuff…hoping we can all have some fun as we are just starting to walk in the door of our climatological wheelhouse.   

I was just hoping for at least some virtual excitement by this point, and all I am left with is a clipper that will produced a mini CJ as the dong drops on my grape on NYE.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's not like it's just applicable to our area though, the concept would apply to other areas of the globe too. For us it's just a product of where we reside regionally. 

And where we are at the moment too.  Because the bombs Paul…they aren’t being affected by this idea in other parts of this country currently.  Just like they weren’t being affected here during the 2000’s and 2010’s. But other parts of the country at that time were struggling, but we weren’t. So that tells me, that again, it’s a cycle.  And we will come out of it, like we did after the last dearth where nothing(very little) worked out here(the 80’s). 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was just hoping for at least some virtual excitement by this point, and all I am left with is a clipper that will produced a mini CJ as the dong drops on my grape on NYE.

I feel ya bro. I know what you mean.