January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

See 12z for MBY went about way would expect lol...ice. Scary part is the GFS AI corrected course until it cropped out on pivotal. Last frame matches CMC pretty close

19 degrees colder in Chattanooga at 132 compared to 6z for the AIGFS and 15 degrees colder at TRI.

[fountainguy97]

UK is a beauty. Big tick south

 

Update: it is also going to be a blood bath of ice for ETN

[Wurbus]

Looks like a lot more icy solutions on the GEFS as well so far

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

18 degrees colder in Chattanooga at 132 compared to 6z.

Extrapolate out and would have been a close call whether it went east vs west of apps with the warm nose

[Carvers Gap]

The bad thing about the CMC is it follows that ice w/ near record cold.  

[TellicoWx]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

My AIGFS goes out to 360 on WxBell.  Need a map?  I can post it.

If you dont mind..curious which side it went on

[TellicoWx]

Ukie is strong enough with LP to save the valley..but that would destroy plateau/west

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Ukie is strong enough with LP to save the valley..but that would destroy plateau/west

It was a strong cutter at 0z.  Did it also trend south?

[fountainguy97]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

It was a strong cutter at 0z.  Did it also trend south?

It did. Good tick south

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z UKMET absolutely buries most of the forum.

[TellicoWx]

Ukie...thunder ice anyone...valley is sitting right at 33

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

thunder ice anyone

We need a mountain wave event with the ice too, that'll help. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Ukie...thunder ice anyone...valley is sitting right at 33

Does that UKMET accumulation map include ice?  That map is insanity.

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Does that UKMET accumulation map include ice?  That map is insanity.

Has too..850s are too wrecked to thump that before changeover

[fountainguy97]

NBM helping to bring things into focus. 

definitely think that the classic CAD with miller B handoff is taking over right now vs the slider scenario.  

This is going to come down to how strong is that HP. And can it keep the storm suppressed. 

[TellicoWx]

If Euro AI steps in line with rest..Wonder if final outcome could wind up an I85 special

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Has too..850s are too wrecked to thump that before changeover

What is crazy is the UKMET trended strongly towards the slider camp.  The GEM trended strongly towards the AIFS camp.  They almost swapped spots.  The AIGFS trended strongly towards the slider camp.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

NBM helping to bring things into focus. 

definitely think that the classic CAD with miller B handoff is taking over right now vs the slider scenario.  

That is telling.  Takes how long to include the 12z data?

[TellicoWx]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

What is crazy is the UKMET trended strongly towards the slider camp.  The GEM trended strongly towards the AIFS camp.  They almost swapped spots.  The AIGFS trended strongly towards the slider camp.  

Place it in the middle and end up with close to the I85

[fountainguy97]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

What is crazy is the UKMET trended strongly towards the slider camp.  The GEM trended strongly towards the AIFS camp.  They almost swapped spots.  The AIGFS trended strongly towards the slider camp.  

It can be hard to process all the wiggling but at 12z I see our "cone of uncertainty" narrowing pretty significantly.  The outliers are not as outlier. 

The wiggling continues but the distance from extreme to extreme has tightened.

[tnweathernut]

Things are on a razors edge dependent upon the energy in the southwest (how much comes out) and the strength of the high incoming.  Unfortunately, modeling is still unsure how to handle these features.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Place it in the middle and end up with close to the I85

Remind me what that is?

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

Things are on a razors edge dependent upon the energy in the southwest (how much comes out) and the strength of the high incoming.  Unfortunately, modeling is still unsure how to handle these features.

The NBM ticking up is concerning on a lot of levels.

[TellicoWx]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Remind me what that is?

Strengthening LP tracks up toward Charlotte, placing us on the NW quad and 850s crashing on the west side of the Apps.

[fountainguy97]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The NBM ticking up is concerning on a lot of levels.

In the past models often "shove" the LP into the CAD too much at this stage.  It's hard to tell if that will translate to such an extreme event but I am hopeful we will see the HP push win out some more than it is.  

[AMZ8990]

QPF totals were insane on that UKMET run, over 2" in a lot of the forum!  

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said:

In the past models often "shove" the LP into the CAD too much at this stage.  It's hard to tell if that will translate to such an extreme event but I am hopeful we will see the HP push win out some more than it is.  

Maybe we better start looking at the QPF trends?  I have to think a 1040+ hp sitting to the north of this is a big problem, especially since it is well west of the Apps into the Midwest or plains.  

[jaxjagman]

MEM,seems to be gaining confidence

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

In the past models often "shove" the LP into the CAD too much at this stage.  It's hard to tell if that will translate to such an extreme event but I am hopeful we will see the HP push win out some more than it is.  

FWIW, the 12z GFS is absolutely burying your area.

[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

MEM,seems to be gaining confidence

Looks like Nashville is in the basement playing ping pong.