January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[WishingForWarmWeather]

5 minutes ago, midwoodian said:

I’ve noticed TWC is always slow to lock in total. But probably now auto-written by AI with less quality human review. Or I’m being pessimistic.


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Naw, I think you nailed it for sure, sadly. 
 

i remember growing up watching the TV scrolling the schools and the local 8s on the 8s. You would see spelling mistakes (very rarely) and it just reminded me of how human the weather was, even with all the tech behind it. 

[housemtnTN]

17 minutes ago, midwoodian said:

I’ve noticed TWC is always slow to lock in total. But probably now auto-written by AI with less quality human review. Or I’m being pessimistic.


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You're probably not wrong lol.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Eyes -> 18z GEFS  and 18z AIFS EPS snow means for the entire run.

 Carver and others,

 The WxBell Euro AIFS ens snow maps have a flaw so major that the 12Z run (just for one example) had one member (#38) 300 miles offshore in the Gulf getting a foot of snow within a 6 hour period while the temp was 65F+! You read that right, a 2”/hour snowstorm with temps in the 60s. These maps are so flawed than even Joe Bastardi, himself, noticed the same problem a few weeks ago! If even Joe noted this, well….use these at your own risk. The regular EPS snow maps are otoh legit:

 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, GaWx said:

 Carver and others,

 The WxBell Euro AIFS ens snow maps have a flaw so major that the 12Z run (just for one example) had one member (#38) 300 miles offshore in the Gulf getting a foot of snow within a 6 hour period while the temp was 65F+! You read that right, a 2”/hour snowstorm with temps in the 60s. These maps are so flawed than even Joe Bastardi, himself, noticed the same problem a few weeks ago! If even Joe noted this, well….use these at your own risk. The regular EPS snow maps are otoh legit:

 

Haha.  Definitely a bias or algorithm issue there!   

[Carvers Gap]

So w/ the AIFS EPS out of commission on WxBell...here are the 18z(left) and 12z(right) comparison of the EPS and GEFS runs.  I prefer the EPS right now as it has been steady.  Let's hope their algorithms are right!  The 18z GEFS trended south.  The EPS might by 20 miles north and a bit drier as well on the northern fringes.  

 

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

So w/ the AIFS EPS out of commissions at WxBell...here are the 18z(left) and 12z(right) comparison of the EPS and GEFS runs.  I prefer the EPS right now as it has been steady.  Let's hope their algorithms are right!  The 18z GEFS trended south.  The EPS might by 20 miles north and a bit drier as well on the northern fringes.  

 

 I do need to emphasize that I’m only talking about the algos that produce the WxBell EPS AI snow maps having a major issue. Regarding the qpf and other maps, I have no evidence to suggest these are off. So, I’m saying that it’s possible that it’s only the snow maps that have a major problem with regard to EPS AI.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, GaWx said:

 I do need to emphasize that I’m only talking about the algos that produce the WxBell EPS AI snow maps having a major issue. Regarding the qpf and other maps, I have no evidence to suggest these are off. So, I’m saying that it’s possible that it’s only the snow maps that have a major problem with regard to EPS AI.

For sure, hopefully we will have a clearer picture by tomorrow evening.  We battle the warm nose w/ nearly every big system over here.  Will reset and head to 0z.

[Carvers Gap]

Of note, the 18z EPS and EPS AIFS are super similar.  The AI is a tick north, but not by much.  I can't say I like the trend for E TN at 18z, but we have a ways to go before that gets nailed down.  A big trend north or warm nose tomorrow, and I will politely hand this off to the middle and west guys(same for most recent Nina winters!).....again, probably need 3-4 more runs to really get a good handle on where that nose sets up shop.  All great storms have the warm nose....need that high to build in.  HOWEVER, I do worry a little about suppression w/ the 18z GEFS and EPS losing moisture transport northward....so let's worry about it all.  Haha.

[Scottie16]

Carver; would this system be apart of the energy that dumped record snows in Russia?


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[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Carver; would this system be apart of the energy that dumped record snows in Russia?


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No idea, but fun question about if/how their is a connection.  Just spitballing, I would probably say the tendency for amplification is partially QBO related.  When you dig back through years with strong amplifications during winters, the QBO is often negative during the heart of winter.  As one poster noted in this thread, some big snows in Juneau and Russia.  

[TellicoWx]

One of reasons I stopped paying for weather sites and just use the free ones..they all use their own in house algos to ingest the raw data

[TellicoWx]

0z suite off and running..good luck everyone. Hopefully good trends moving forward 

[fountainguy97]

51 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Of note, the 18z EPS and EPS AIFS are super similar.  The AI is a tick north, but not by much.  I can't say I like the trend for E TN at 18z, but we have a ways to go before that gets nailed down.  A big trend north or warm nose tomorrow, and I will politely hand this off to the middle and west guys(same for most recent Nina winters!).....again, probably need 3-4 more runs to really get a good handle on where that nose sets up shop.  All great storms have the warm nose....need that high to build in.  HOWEVER, I do worry a little about suppression w/ the 18z GEFS and EPS losing moisture transport northward....so let's worry about it all.  Haha.

I feel the same way. I think climo would leave us in the ice category. And the snow stays into KY, VA. Just my gut talking

[TellicoWx]

Icon with a nice little event at 84 for northern border counties of Eastern TN/KY. If moisture can hang around..850s were a touch cooler.

[fountainguy97]

Can already see the classic CAD look on the blend of models.

someone may end up with a truly historic ice storm 

[TellicoWx]

Icon pressing the cold further south so far at 126

[Carvers Gap]

0z Icon is on board!

[Golf757075]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

0z Icon is on board!

Good hit?

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

0z Icon is on board!

MS getting nailed with ice

[TellicoWx]

Biggest take away from ICON is it didn't try cutting anything

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Golf757075 said:

Good hit?

Slider w/ no warm nose.

 

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

MS getting nailed with ice

Need that storm a little to our south - I think.

[nrgjeff]

18Z Roundup. GFS is a nice moderate snow in a couple pieces of energy. Euro remains a crippling ice storm. No Canadian at 18Z but 12Z was ice. Ensembles just blend out everything. We either have a beautiful snow or a Ukraine winter without power. 

[WintryMixmaster]

13 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I feel the same way. I think climo would leave us in the ice category. And the snow stays into KY, VA. Just my gut talking

I kind of feel the same way but that's probably due to cynicism more than any real intuition about the pattern, just being used to stronger storms always trending north. We haven't had an ice storm in my 4 winters in Knoxville (minus a minor ZR event in Jan 2024) and it would be nice to keep it that way

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, nrgjeff said:

18Z Roundup. GFS is a nice moderate snow in a couple pieces of energy. Euro remains a crippling ice storm. No Canadian at 18Z but 12Z was ice. Ensembles just blend out everything. We either have a beautiful snow or a Ukraine winter without power. 

I want my power, Jeff.  LOL.  I can't watch Tenn lose heartbreaking basketball games without it!

[Golf757075]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Slider w/ no warm nose.

 

Need that storm a little to our south - I think.

 

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Slider w/ no warm nose.

 

Need that storm a little to our south - I think.

Tropicaltidbits hasn't updated yet 0z

[TellicoWx]

Icon didn't kick the Baja low...more pieces came thru. Precip shield would be more on the north side than shown looking at upper air moisture. Waves riding may be a better outcome than a full send of the Baja low.

[Scottie16]

Tropicaltidbits hasn't updated yet 0z

Pivotal weather


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[Golf757075]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Icon didn't kick the Baja low...more pieces came thru. Precip shield would be more on the north side than shown looking at upper air moisture. Waves riding may be a better outcome than a full send of the Baja low.

Im in west tennessee so wasn't sure lol

[Scottie16]

I think that’s all models hitting on something now. (LR)


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[TellicoWx]

If I was you guys north of 40 I wouldn't quite sleep on the window just coming into hi res windows. May be able to squeak out an inch or two if moisture doesn't die out too quickly.

 

Way this winter is going that would be a win