January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[AMZ8990]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

At 162, the 12z Euro has gone pretty much bonkers.

Crazy run 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro is going for a glacier in North Carolina.  I have seen this before in the early 2000-2010.  Monster run.

[Carvers Gap]

Honestly, the cold following that type of event on the 12z Euro would be rough, rough.  

[tnweathernut]

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Honestly, the cold following that type of event on the 12z Euro would be rough, rough.  

Had to be warm when it tries to develop a glacier in your front yard….  lol

[Carvers Gap]

The ice amounts from the 12z Euro are pretty staggering.  I want NONE of that - nada, zip, zero.  Here are the 12z deterministic runs for next weekend.  Things are going to change with this almost assuredly.  Keep in mind though, Arkansas has this storm within five days now.  Also, the frames below are only snapshots.  The GEM frame is the second wave.  Most models had a couple of waves.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS has at the first round of light mix into west TN by early Friday....and waves of rain, sleet, snow, and ice persist until the following Sunday - like ten days of waves along the gradient.  No idea if it is right.  I am just the messenger on this.

[Matthew70]

I won’t no part of the ice storm that is being shown across MS/AL/GA.  That will be crippling & devastating.  Though if we get what models are showing for TN.  It will definitely cripple TN for a few days.  Thats alot of snow.  Plus those temps behind it!  We get hit like that.  I will call it winter & be very happy. 

[Carvers Gap]

The concern, and we have talked about this for at least a week...is that this potential cold air mass will form a gradient boundary which presses west to east.  The cold air will submarine under warm air, and that creates the conditions needed for ice.  We dodged one window this past week as the STJ didn't attack the base of the trough.  The STJ looks to show some life right now at the worst possible time - and you all know I like winter, but not ice.  Again, a lot will change and that should be noted in all caps.  But it sure looks increasingly likely that  somewhere between Birmingham and Lexington is gonna see a winter storm and maybe a bad one.

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I won’t no part of the ice storm that is being shown across MS/AL/GA.  That will be crippling & devastating.  Though if we get what models are showing for TN.  It will definitely cripple TN for a few days.  Thats alot of snow.  Plus those temps behind it!  We get hot like that.  I will call it winter & be very happy. 

Yeah, man.  We want none of that.  The cold air looks vey likely.  The wild card is whether the STJ gets its act together.  We have seen "false positives" this winter with it.  Like I said above though, this event is within five days for folks in Arkansas...and almost four.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The concern, and we have talked about this for at least a week...is that this potential cold air mass will form a gradient boundary which presses west to east.  The cold air will submarine under warm air, and that creates the conditions needed for ice.  We dodged one window this past week as the STJ didn't attack the base of the trough.  The STJ looks to show some life right now at the worst possible time - and you all know I like winter, but not ice.  Again, a lot will change and that should be noted in all caps.  But it sure looks increasingly likely that  somewhere between Birmingham and Lexington is gonna see a winter storm and maybe a bad one.

Sure looking more likely someone in that Area you noted is good to get Hammered with Snow and Ice. Heavy Snow on Northern Boundary but Sleet and freezing Rain a pretty wide swath likely in the middle probably.

[Matthew70]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Sure looking more likely someone in that Area you noted is good to get Hammered with Snow and Ice. Heavy Snow on Northern Boundary but Sleet and freezing Rain a pretty wide swath likely in the middle probably.

Yep.  Winter is coming with vengeance.  Just what we get in TN is to be decided.  Ice or sleet or snow.  Grocery stores have reasons this week to be busy.  This storm will be one to last for several days.  It will cripple many areas for several days.  The ice will cripple for weeks to months.  Over a large area which makes it much worse. 

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

While waiting to see what the GFS poops out at 12z, I just noticed the 6z AIFS has a Lo RES triple phaser for the 28th:

 

 

 

 

 

Do you have the JAXA?,i know you like to look at sat.images

 

https://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GSMaP_NOW/index.htm

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Just grabbing some maps.  The temps are also a big story.  Modeling is still picking up a sharp cold shot right around 300 which is after the rain/snow/ice/sleet we are looking at.  Some of the seven day temp departures, undoubtedly enhanced by potential snow cover, are impressive.  I also added the accumulation maps for the Euro run.

 

[Carvers Gap]

It is again worth noting that wx models have done a much better job of identifying cold fronts during the last few weeks, but they have been over-doing cold almost across the board.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro ensemble individuals show strong support for the deterministic run.

[jaxjagman]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just grabbing some maps.  The temps are also a big story.  Modeling is still picking up a sharp cold shot right around 300 which is after the rain/snow/ice/sleet we are looking at.  Some of the seven day temp departures, undoubtedly enhanced by potential snow cover, are impressive.  I also added the accumulation maps for the Euro run.

 

That would be the storm of all storms in Tn

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS has temps thirty degrees BN (over TRI and E TN...cold over the entire forum area and EC) from ten days out which is almost unheard of from that model.  Again, I have my doubts, but just reporting what I see.  The winter which shall not be named as an analog....is trying to sneak into the photo.

[Carvers Gap]

If this actually occurs, the EURO AIFS and its ensembles had this days before other modeling did......

[Wurbus]

I'm a huge Bills fan so I've been checked out from everything the past 18 hours, but this 12z suite has perked me back up some. My life seems to be one disappointment after another with following the Bills and East TN winter weather lol. I don't want anything to do with the ice as everyone has mentioned, but what a run on the Euro. Not use to seeing those type of storms within 7 days on models. With that type of cold, I'd also worry about suppression, but hopefully we can reel something in

[Carvers Gap]

20 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Sure looking more likely someone in that Area you noted is good to get Hammered with Snow and Ice. Heavy Snow on Northern Boundary but Sleet and freezing Rain a pretty wide swath likely in the middle probably.

My only caveat would be that modeling has struggled this winter.  Right now though, this is at day 4-5 for far western areas of this forum.  By tomorrow evening or Tuesday morning, short range models should begin to have this for portions of Arkansas.

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

My only caveat would be that modeling has struggled this winter.  Right now though, this is at day 4-5 for far western areas of this forum.  By tomorrow evening or Tuesday morning, short range models should begin to have this for portions of Arkansas.

Maybe its a good thing the GFS is suppressed,storms always trend northwards to an extent,qustion would be will the Euro do the same..lol

[Matthew70]

Being wo power with those temps would be awful, if that would even truly describe it.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Maybe its a good thing the GFS is suppressed,storms always trend northwards to an extent,qustion would be will the Euro do the same..lol

I think initially, we want it suppressed at this range.  The cold which pushes after this could be strong.  I want to get this within about four days.  I could still see this really surging warmth into the TN Valley if something cuts.  I can definitely see a scenario where something cuts, draws cold down, and the second wave is snow/ice.  But the slider scenario is plausible.  For whatever reason, modeling this winter has found a way to be universally wrong from suite to suite.  So, I expect a jog north...well north of the GFS as nearly all of the GEFS members are north of the deterministic.  But the 12z GFS deterministic is almost to a range it can be trusted, but not quite yet.    Fun discussion, but those tracks are gonna move some at this range for sure. I don't want ice either.  Ensemble packages look good though at 12z.

[John1122]

The Euro is essentially Feb 2nd 1996.

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Being wo power with those temps would be awful, if that would even truly describe it.

Definitely don't want to lose power with a potential Arctic front barreling down the Plains a few days later.  I am sure the NWS will give this about 48 hours for modeling to get this into focus...and then put out the word.   Still a lot of uncertainty right now.  

[Carvers Gap]

I think the 12z GEM para is very plausible as well and fits recent Nina climatology like a glove.  This would be the northern side of modeling so far.

 

[tnweathernut]

I think we better get a lot of sleep over the next couple of days.  24 more hours of consistent modeling and grocery store workers will be hating life soon.

[tnweathernut]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

I think the 12z GEM para is very plausible as well and fits recent Nina climatology like a glove.  This would be the northern side of modeling so far.

 

Agree.  This would fit many systems I’ve followed in the last 20 years.

[jaxjagman]

Theres no signs of a inverted trough other than mainly into Alabama,these are at times missed by modeling,reflect back into 2014 in our parts

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS(normally very conservative and known as the ultimate Dr No) has this...big high over the top and active STJ.  Definitely an eye opener from an ensemble at 150.  By Tuesday evening, short range models should have this.  Some streamers on the EPS arrive on Friday and the last does not depart E TN until Monday.