Wurbus Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Anyone know how accurate the Euro AI model has been in the long range? It's been showing something on the 27-28th for a few runs in row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The 12z GEM and Euro have lots of frozen precip. The west-east gradient appears to be setting up somewhere between I-40 and southern Kentucky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago I'm going to simply hope the Euro Ai, which has been really great, is correct. The Euro would probably cause me to check out for winter if it happened. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GEM and Euro have lots of frozen precip. The west-east gradient appears to be setting up somewhere between I-40 and southern Kentucky. Hopefully it will setup on the TN/AL line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatheriscool Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GEM and Euro have lots of frozen precip. The west-east gradient appears to be setting up somewhere between I-40 and southern Kentucky. Dont play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago There is some agreement with the GEFS and Euro AI on the 27-28th storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Wow lots of heavy ice forecasts coming out from NWP but thankfully all well out in the extended. We can't have that crap! They are on different days on different models; some north of here, some right on us. If that happens it'll be a huge slap in the face. Other options range from heavy rain to cold and dry. It's beyond Day 7. Of course we hope for all snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 40 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Anyone know how accurate the Euro AI model has been in the long range? It's been showing something on the 27-28th for a few runs in row now. For the general idea of the patter even 200 hours out the Euro AI has been pretty darn good: There is a little bit of bouncing around with the northern stream for a few runs, but damn... I have noticed it has had a little bit of a progressive bias (note the NW trend on this weekend) from 120 hours out: But for basic idea of the pattern, it is looking sharp right now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago For those wondering about how Ai is being incorporated by the Euro and GFS, they are being done two separate ways. Both are hybrids of the base system. Where they completely differ on trains of thought is...Euro is used for post processing and corrects the main models known bias's to increase accuracy and precision. The GFS is being implemented to increase the main models speed and lower computing power to save money moving forward. So that's why you hear people such as Spann talking more and more about the Euro Ai and not so much about the GFS Ai. As far as accuracy, what little that has been released publicly is so far the Euro Ai is miles ahead of everything, with only Googles DeepMind teams pure Ai system keeping pace. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago May have to issue a virga warning soon: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Quick breakdown of the two 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 50 minutes ago Author Share Posted 50 minutes ago The Tennessee basketball game was the sports equivalent to that Euro run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago The Euro AIFS EPS is about as beefy as one could get an ensemble for this area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 42 minutes ago Share Posted 42 minutes ago 47 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Wow lots of heavy ice forecasts coming out from NWP but thankfully all well out in the extended. We can't have that crap! They are on different days on different models; some north of here, some right on us. If that happens it'll be a huge slap in the face. Other options range from heavy rain to cold and dry. It's beyond Day 7. Of course we hope for all snow. Yeah, man. No ice over-running. I had enough power outage stuff during Helene. The worst! But probably a good reason to follow ensembles at this point. EURO AI EPS and GEFS at 12z are pretty beefy. I have to imagine individuals within each run are showing some big solutions. I haven't looked yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 41 minutes ago Share Posted 41 minutes ago I am probably not as down on the 12z Euro. I am really just looking to see where the gradient is going to set up. I think the risk has always been that it would jog north. However, there will likely be an ebb and flow to this. Anything can change that gradient at this range. Again, I tend to think S KY is in a prime spot for the first wave of this. Just now digging through the 12z stuff after watching the basketball game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 28 minutes ago Share Posted 28 minutes ago I'd be very careful if you are using the GFS into next weekend of what might happen,this is its last 8 runs,just saying 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 15 minutes ago Author Share Posted 15 minutes ago 11 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: I'd be very careful if you are using the GFS into next weekend of what might happen,this is its last 8 runs,just saying I just discount it no matter what it shows this season. I have to assume budget cuts have affected data collection and it's affected American modeling. They've been bad this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 11 minutes ago Share Posted 11 minutes ago 57 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Quick breakdown of the two Putting the skill of the GFS is gonna make it any better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 10 minutes ago Share Posted 10 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: I just discount it no matter what it shows this season. I have to assume budget cuts have affected data collection and it's affected American modeling. They've been bad this winter so far. Oh i agree,the GFS has been trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now