January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[TellicoWx]

24 minutes ago, midwoodian said:

Bump…sorry guys I’m a total newb on these maps and terminologies


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Welcome...right now I wouldn't say there is a definitive system #2 (system #1 will play a role in the evolution first). The signs so to speak are pointing toward something in the distance, could go poof or could go all in....way too early to say either way.

[TellicoWx]

When you starting seeing a 1" mean that reaches down into central AL/MS at this range, something is lurking for someone in the distance usually.

[Daniel Boone]

I'm late to the Party today. Been feeling rough all day with only 3-4 hours Sleep last night.

      Things are looking interesting this coming Week. Just looking over the Evening Package Forecast for the upcoming week from KMRX and am a bit puzzled as I'm curious to which Models they derived it from. It's nothing like the GFS . It's pretty mild considering what Data I've seen. 

   Of course, you know how conservative and generally warm biased in the medium and LR they typically are. Anyone have any idea of what they may be looking at?

[Greyhound]

I hope the metal snowman is still up. 

Sure is!!!


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[Golf757075]

If the mjo charts are accurate, the models will trend colder east of the rockies unless there is more to the story lol. 

[Greyhound]

Sure is!!!


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Need to clarify. The wife has informed me the metal snowman has been taken down and stored with Christmas decorations. Which - if you remember my initial post about this contraption from two years ago, we DO NOT want that thing hanging as a decoration. It’s a malicious omen. When it’s present, and amongst the living - its a detriment and we don’t get the goods. When it has been purged to the furthest dark corners of the attic, and not around to assert its evil, we tend to get good snow events. So, it is where it needs to be!!! Carry on and let’s reel them in!!!

[John1122]

ICON hits from Eastern Rim and points east, especially north of 40, on the 15th. Another round headed for Western areas by the 16th or so, with snow breaking out in Arkansas. 

[John1122]

ICON lost the second wave, like the Euro. 

[John1122]

Then it sends a clipper through at the end of the run and ends up here. 

 

 

[tnweathernut]

0z GFS looks more like 12z than 18z with the incoming trough midweek

[tnweathernut]

I expect this will be another decent run at the surface.

[Matthew70]

29 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Then it sends a clipper through at the end of the run and ends up here. 

 

 

Ouch.  Mid state swing & miss. 

[tnweathernut]

Boom goes the dynamite from hour 102 to 108 for the half of the state, especially east TN.  Snow map will be pretty for some.

[John1122]

@tnweathernut nailed it. Huge hitter on the first wave there from the gfs. 

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

@tnweathernut nailed it. Huge hitter on the first wave there from the gfs. 

Really liked the look at 500.  Numerous runs have shown a very vigorous piece of energy.  In reality it’s probably somewhere between the GFS and Euro, which would mean a pretty good chance at snow for someone on our forum, even if just light.

[tnweathernut]

Storm 2 looks a bit deeper and a touch further SW than 18z. Probably snows somewhere in the southeast/Deep South at the surface with that one too.

[tnweathernut]

The second system looks like it would be primarily an overrunning setup that minors out as it moves east. 

[John1122]

The second wave is also big on the GFS. The Canadian sees none of the first wave. 

[John1122]

The GFS would be just about perfect for most of us if it came to pass. First wave buries the east side, the second is nice 3-5 inches for the west and still added 1-2 inches over the rest of the state. 

[tnweathernut]

Not sure why it’s wanting to take the energy for the second storm in the base of the trough and send it SW through TX creating what looks like a strung out mess.  I still think this one has potential, but I don’t like what it’s doing at 500.

if the ridge on the west coast was tilting to the northeast I could see energy doing this, but it’s a really nice ridge so I think the more reasonable solution would be to swing it through.  I could be missing something, but this is what I see.

[tnweathernut]

A strung out mess would have less issues with a thermal profile………. so there’s that.  lol

[Scottie16]

Not sure why it’s wanting to take the energy for the second storm in the base of the trough and send it SW through TX creating what looks like a strung out mess.  I still think this one has potential, but I don’t like what it’s doing at 500.
if the ridge on the west coast was tilting to the northeast I could see energy doing this, but it’s a really nice ridge so I think the more reasonable solution would be to swing it through.  I could be missing something, but this is what I see.

Seems like it’s being influenced by the low off the west coast of Mexico?


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[tnweathernut]

4 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Seems like it’s being influenced by the low off the west coast of Mexico?


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There’s some definite interaction there, just don’t think the chances are high it happens like that.

[tnweathernut]

Someone else will have to take the night shift.  I need to head to bed.  Hope the Euro is less no at 0z………

[Matthew70]

2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Someone else will have to take the night shift.  I need to head to bed.  Hope the Euro is less no at 0z………

Sleep well! 

[John1122]

The UKIE is in the Canadian camp. Not much cooking there except some NW flow snow showers and cold. It's not the best place to be on team ICON/GFS vs the other models. 

[John1122]

The AI GFS has wave one and two. Cooperative 540s. BN 850s. But temps in the mid to upper 30s even with precip falling and crashing 850s. 

[TellicoWx]

Another small step for the 0z GEFS mean

[John1122]

Euro AI has lost it as well on today's runs, including 0z here. I hope it's wrong but with only the GFS and ICON on board, this is very unlikely to be a big event. 

Every other model is just some N stream snow showers. I'll be surprised if the Euro Op isn't the same. 

[John1122]

The Euro is maybe a little better with the first wave than 12z so far. Nothing like the GFS with that Lee side low it pops and bombs us, at least not yet. Still rolling.