January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[John1122]

I'm not paying much attention to models currently. They're just wildly different run to run, model to model. 

The 0z GFS is 30+ degrees colder late run than the 0z AIGFS. Recently, the AI was 20-30 degrees colder than the regular GFS. 

For me, I'm going to see how things look in a week or so to see if the pattern moves forward. 

[Weatheriscool]

I think I am going to stop looking at the models altogether. It is strange in that it seems like we go through this every season, I would think that models would be getting progressively better at forecasting but it seems like we have the same "groundhog day" discussions every year in the forum. 

[*Flash*]

That 0z Euro run was essentially the prophetic manifestation of Lucy and the football. Didn’t mean to call it so soon. Not getting discouraged yet, especially since modeling is struggling more than it has in recent years. 

[Weatheriscool]

The 12Z gfs went dry as a bone, that model is so whacked

[Matthew70]

The cold is there. Gotta remember that models won’t see clippers till the last min.  We’re not even into the coldest time of winter.  Long ways to go, have January & all of February.  The end of February I’m ready for spring. Guaranteed spring will be cold come March & April.  Always is these days.

I did see where Nashville had the 6 warmest year ever for 2015. That’s crazy & sucks. 

[*Flash*]

8 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

The cold is there. Gotta remember that models won’t see clippers till the last min.  We’re not even into the coldest time of winter.  Long ways to go, have January & all of February.  The end of February I’m ready for spring. Guaranteed spring will be cold come March & April.  Always is these days.

I did see where Nashville had the 6 warmest year ever for 2015. That’s crazy & sucks. 

The BNA UHI is getting worse at a rapid rate, so I think assessing rural areas for historical rankings makes more sense at this point. In the coming years, I expect BNA to see more top 5 rankings while outlying areas only crack the top 10. 

[Carvers Gap]

23 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

The 12Z gfs went dry as a bone, that model is so whacked

The 12z AI GFS on the other hand.....is winter.  But yeah, the GFS has had issues.

[Weatheriscool]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z AI GFS on the other hand.....is winter.  But yeah, the GFS has had issues.

Will take a look at the AI 

[Weatheriscool]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z AI GFS on the other hand.....is winter.  But yeah, the GFS has had issues.

Yes it does and there is moisture!

[Carvers Gap]

What's up, everybody?  

The 12z suite is rolling.  There are some really good looks embedded in modeling.  As noted, the AI GFS is loaded.  The GFS is is very progressive as its bias.  Details are starting to come into focus with the pattern change sitting right at 7-8 days out.  

The 12z CMC has light snow next weekend over portions of the forum area, and then looked ready to roll aa the model ended.

Cosgrove(off the top of my head)noted in his update last night that the window of Jan13-15 has potential for a winter storm from Texas to DelMarVa.  I agree with that.  He noted another window just around or after Jan 20.  I also agree with that.

Interestingly, and we talked about this a few pages ago, he noted that a Baja low may well eject the energy used in one of those winter storms.  I generally don't mind rain in LA.  That, in my mind, has tended to correlate to snow over MBY at some point.

[Carvers Gap]

As this ridge retrogrades, in my mind I think we see a window where it sits in the right spot (nearly perfectly).  If there is cold air available, I think that is when we see the worst of winter delivered.  The 12z GFS, though flawed, shows an example of how this could happened right at the end of its run.  Be sure to look at 500 anomalies - you can see it better.

As the ridge shifts West, the initial ridge is just too far to the East.  As it retrogrades, is slides into the sweet spot where cold can really get southward.  With the STJ showing a less dormant look....that is the window.  The reason the GFS is dry on this run is that it slowed down the retrograde considerably....so the initial trough is too far to the east to connect w/ the STJ.   As long as the ridge continues to retrograde, at some point that trough is going to be right over the Tenn and Ohio river valleys IMHO.

As for how the ridge retrogrades, see my comments from the last few days.  I think the pattern retrogrades that ridge into Asia....then does it again.  That fits the MJO rotation and blocking pattern.  I do think the base pattern has a lot of HL blocking FWIW.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro, and I can only see the 500 map at the moment, shows the trough deepen as a second wave drops into the trough around the 14th.  That "should" yield a window if true.  The Euro gets a bit of a nod as it has been steady with the ridge/trough progression.  It seems the Euro is about to score the win w/ EPO.  It had it first and wouldn't budge...the control actually had it first if memory serves me correctly.

[Carvers Gap]

This is an example of the potential where this could go.  With it being right around d10-11, certainly this will change some.  Interestingly, you can see the first trough over the Mountain West beginning to give way to the second trough in the Eastern Pacific.  

[Carvers Gap]

At minimum, what the 12z Euro is advertising would likely provide northern stream vortices w/ some light snow for portions of the forum areas.  

[Carvers Gap]

The pattern is still on schedule to send the ridge west by Jan 8-9 w/ those mechanics underway now.  So, to me the first legit window(excluding the light snow that possibly falls next weekend at the onset of the pattern change) sits right tentatively around Jan 14th w/ another right around the 20th - reference Cosgrove.  Just impossible to know right now what/if interaction the northern stream has with the STJ.  I like the Euro at this time of year, but the GFS isn't far from the same solution.  Good trends.  Once we get to the 14th, it really looks like one window after another until the ridge retrogrades into Asia, we wait about a week, and then do it all over again to end January and begin February.  I still like a 95-96(lite) pattern evolution.  Whether we can get they type of snow?  IDK.

[Carvers Gap]

Sorry, here is an edit.  The EPO ridge should begin sliding into place between Jan 8-9th.  That is only 4-5 days out, and looks like it will be legit.   What follows synoptically should be several vortices diving into the downstream eastern trough which forms as a result of the West coast ridge - that last sentence is TBD in regards to details.  But I just wanted to clarify that we are only about 96 hours from the EPO ridge(could be some PNA in that) forming along the West Coast.  

[Carvers Gap]

At 500 and the surface, the 12z GFS, CMC, and Euro are remarkably in sync for the duration of their runs through 360 - western ridge and eastern trough w/ vortices diving into the eastern trough and a somewhat active STJ(differences exist w/ it).  

[Matthew70]

52 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

The BNA UHI is getting worse at a rapid rate, so I think assessing rural areas for historical rankings makes more sense at this point. In the coming years, I expect BNA to see more top 5 rankings while outlying areas only crack the top 10. 

I agree.  Thats a great & valid observation & point. More pavement & buildings makes it worse than it probably is. 

[Carvers Gap]

Again, I want to remind folks to beware of ensemble means at d10+.  There are a very few warm solutions which are skewing the mean.  If there was a median, it would almost assuredly be cold at 12z.  I like this look at 500.  The PV at 500 is over NA and not Asia.  Some may correctly point out that is 3336...Yes, it is.  However, the vortex is almost in place by about 272 on this side of the pole.  The 12z GEFS is far more aggressive than this.   I chose the least aggressive.  But for fun, switch your model to Northern Hemisphere view and 500 Geopotential height...and watch the cold develop over NA.  IF this occurs, ensembles are highly likely to be too warm after 300.  

[tnweathernut]

16 hours ago, John1122 said:

I'm not paying much attention to models currently. They're just wildly different run to run, model to model. 

The 0z GFS is 30+ degrees colder late run than the 0z AIGFS. Recently, the AI was 20-30 degrees colder than the regular GFS. 

For me, I'm going to see how things look in a week or so to see if the pattern moves forward. 

I’m in this boat also.  I typically only get excited looking for a possible window once we near and get under truncation (hr180). One thing we do well in the southeast during winter is kick the can.  
 

That said, I really appreciate those who keep the page updated regarding the longer range. Things have been crazy at my office ever since the flooding from Helene.  I just can’t participate like I want to.  I know it takes a lot of time.  Hat tip to you guys…….

I am encouraged we seem we are moving to a less hostile Pacific.  Let’s reel that in and see what, if any, threats materialize.  Mid January to mid February is our sweet spot, so that encouraging also.  As @Carvers Gapnoted several times, marginal can work during this period and as we get deeper into winter.

[Matthew70]

49 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I’m in this boat also.  I typically only get excited looking for a possible window once we near and get under truncation (hr180). One thing we do well in the southeast during winter is kick the can.  
 

That said, I really appreciate those who keep the page updated regarding the longer range. Things have been crazy at my office ever since the flooding from Helene.  I just can’t participate like I want to.  I know it takes a lot of time.  Hat tip to you guys…….

I am encouraged we seem we are moving to a less hostile Pacific.  Let’s reel that in and see what, if any, threats materialize.  Mid January to mid February is our sweet spot, so that encouraging also.  As @Carvers Gapnoted several times, marginal can work during this period and as we get deeper into winter.

Glad to see you post.  Hopefully your work gets less chaotic this year! 

[Matthew70]

37 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

Eric webb made a post earlier about possibilities down the road. Very interesting pattern so far. We are in January now, and time goes by really fast. Not much time left to score but of course, there are always exceptions lol

Wrong.  Still plenty of time to score.  We have not even entered prime climo.  Mid January to Mid February.  You have all of February.  Again as I have said the majority of top 10 snows in Nashville are in FEBRUARY!  Look if it does not snow that’s the hand we’re dealt.  This cancel winter crap gets old.  The world is a mess right now.  Let’s try & have some positivity in here to take our minds off of it.  

[Golf757075]

16 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Wrong.  Still plenty of time to score.  We have not even entered prime climo.  Mid January to Mid February.  You have all of February.  Again as I have said the majority of top 10 snows in Nashville are in FEBRUARY!  Look if it does not snow that’s the hand we’re dealt.  This cancel winter crap gets old.  The world is a mess right now.  Let’s try & have some positivity in here to take our minds off of it.  

We can't control the weather, which i understand, but it would be nice to see some rain and a colder pattern eventually this winter. Models are very chaotic currently 

[Carvers Gap]

Really great runs by the 18z GFS and AIGFS.  

The good thing is that there are now a few windows of winter weather opportunity during prime climatology.  And so far(famous last words)...the 500 pattern has not been can kicked.  The EPO ridge is set to arrive on Jan 8th-9th.  We wait all year to track in this time frame.   Some years, we aren't able to track in mid-late January at all.  Take advantage of it when and if you have the time.  For those of us who have patiently tracked this, I hope our patience is rewarded.  Kind of a fun thing to track a pattern for several weeks, have the 500 pattern verify, and then maybe get 1-2 winter events with that.  Doesn't always work out that way, but it is rewarding when it does.

As for details, I am cautiously optimistic that we will see winter weather return w/ the eastern trough.  Been burned too many times to ever throw around absolutes in this hobby.  But for now, it looks good.

 

[Weatheriscool]

Personally, the only way my love of the winter season is going to get a fix is if I move to the Sierra or the Tug Hill Plateau of upstate NY.

[*Flash*]

2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Wrong.  Still plenty of time to score.  We have not even entered prime climo.  Mid-January to Mid-February.  You have all of February.  Again, as I have said the majority of top 10 snows in Nashville are in FEBRUARY!  Look if it does not snow that’s the hand we’re dealt.  This cancel winter crap gets old.  The world is a mess right now.  Let’s try & have some positivity in here to take our minds off of it.  

If a Modoki situation emerges in the Pacific, I wouldn't be surprised to see early March* open for business in the upper south, though obviously this is 100% speculation. Overall, I think confidence is growing the second half of winter will be more active. 

*I'll have to review the CF6s; however, if memory serves, I think March 1-15 is better for snow in Nashville than December 1-15. I know climo winter is December 1-February 28/29, but I think calendar window makes more sense in terms of our snow window. 

[Golf757075]

1 hour ago, Weatheriscool said:

Personally, the only way my love of the winter season is going to get a fix is if I move to the Sierra or the Tug Hill Plateau of upstate NY.

 

1 minute ago, *Flash* said:

If a Modoki situation emerges in the Pacific, I wouldn't be surprised to see early March open for business in the upper south, though obviously this is 100% speculation. Overall, I think confidence is growing the second half of winter will be more active. 

Eric webb believes that so far

[Golf757075]

1 minute ago, *Flash* said:

If a Modoki situation emerges in the Pacific, I wouldn't be surprised to see early March open for business in the upper south, though obviously this is 100% speculation. Overall, I think confidence is growing the second half of winter will be more active. 

That will be a big score for LC because he went with mid-end jan- March for winter to start.